Ross Benjamin

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Under 208.0 (5*)

Boston has played 4-1 to the under in their last 5 at home. Conversely, Miami has seen 4 of its 5 road playoff games go under the total. The Heat hangs their hat on its staunch defensive play. With that said, they won’t take to kindly to Boston hanging 127 points on them in Game 2 while also shooting better than 50%. I look for Miami to be more focused defensively from the start of this contest unlike what we saw in the first 2 games when they allowed 62 and 70-points during 1st half action. Boston is no stranger to playing good defense. They ranked #1 in the NBA on most pertinent defensive categories during regular season action. Both teams are averaging 84 field goal attempts per game during the postseason which equates to a slower than average pace.

Any NBA away team (Heat) with a total of 200.0-209.5 that’s gone over the total in their last 2 games and each by 18.0 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .600-.750, resulted in those games playing 25-7 (78.1%) to the under since 1996. The average total in those 32 contests was 204.6 and there were a combined 199.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

A’s (Montas) @ Angels (Lorenzen) 9:07 PM ET

Game# 977-978

Play On: Under 7.5 (5*)

Frankie Montas has made 4 career starts at Anaheim with a terrific 1.04 ERA. He also pitched 6.0 or more innings on each occasion. Montas has made 5 starts overall versus the Angels since last season and compiled a dominating 1.10 ERA during those appearances. Additionally, Montas has seen each of his last 3 starts go under the total with his 2.79 and 6.4 innings pitched per outing being a huge contributing factor to those low scoring affairs. The Oakland bullpen has been very good on the road this season which is proven by a staff 2.49 ERA. Oakland has seen just 3 of its last 17 games go over the total.

The Angels Michael Lorenzen has been rock-solid in his 3 home starts with a 3.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Lorenzen was dominant in his lone start versus Oakland this season while allowing 1 earned run over 7.0 innings pitched. Give me this game to go under the total.

Nationals (Corbin) @ Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM ET

Game# 961-962

Play On: Brewers -1.5 (-105) (5*)

The Nationals Patrick Corbin has gone 0-8 in his team starts this season with a lousy 6.28 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Washing has scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 and includes last night’s 7-0 loss at Milwaukee. They’ll be facing a Milwaukee Brewers team that’s 12-3 in their last 15 at home and a starting pitcher who’s dominated them.

Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff is 3-0 in his home team starts this season with an excellent 1.62 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. Woodruff has made 4 career starts versus Washington with an awesome 1.13 ERA and 0.54 WHIP. The Brewers bullpen has been strong over their last 7 games while recording a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Give me the Brewers on the run-line.

Dodgers (White) @ Phillies (Nola) 6:05 PM ET

Game# 955-956

Play On: Phillies -120 (5*)

The opening and current money line on this matchup jumped right off the screen at me. We have a Dodgers team on a present 6-game win streak as an underdog versus an opponent that’s last 4 of its last 5. Furthermore, the Dodgers are a sizable 8.5 games ahead of Philadelphia in the National League standings. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog here. I’m not taking the bait.

The Phillies ace Aaron Nola has made 4 home starts this season with a 3.09 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. Nola has made 2 starts versus the Dodgers since last season and allowed only 2 earned runs and striking out 15 in 11.0 innings of work. Nola has averaged 6.5 innings pitched per start over his last 5. That’s extremely important in the respect that it protects an already vulnerable Phillies bullpen from being asked to carry a heavy load. Give me the Phillies on the money line.

Mariners (Gilbert) @ Red Sox (Eovaldi) 1:35 PM ET

Game# 917-918

Play On: Mariners +116 (5*)

The Red Sox will look to complete a 4-game sweep of the Martiners on Sunday. However, they’ll be starting Nathan Eovaldi who has struggled mightily this season. Specifically speaking, Eovaldi has surrendered 14 home runs in 41 2/3 innings pitched this season and that includes 7 taters in 11 1/3 at Fenway Park. Eovaldi is 0-3 in his last 3 team starts with a terrible 8.31 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Boston is 5-12 in day games this season while Seattle is a respectable 8-6.

Logan Gilbert has gone an unscathed 7-0 on the road since last season whenever the Mariners were +125 to -125. Seattle won those 7 outings by a decisive margin of 3.3 runs per game. Gilbert is 4-1 in his team starts on the road this season with a brilliant 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Gilbert is also a perfect 6-0 in road games on Sundays since the start of last season with the Mariners winning by a healthy 3.7 runs per game. Give me the Mariners on the money line.