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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| MLB | Jul 31, 2021 Phillies vs. Pirates |
Phillies -150 at LINEPROS |
in 9h |
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Phillies minus $1.50 at Pirates There wasn't much to gut. But the Pirates dealt Adam Frazier and closer Richard Rodriguez as part of five trades they made leading up to the trade deadline in their eternal quest to become relevant again. Now Pittsburgh is even worse than its 39-64 record since Frazier and Rodriguez were having strong seasons. The Pirates have the lowest run total in the majors and Frazier was by far their best hitter. I'll venture 1 1/2 units to win 1 unit backing Aaron Nola and the Phillies to rebound after an embarrassing 7-0 loss to the Pirates on Friday. That loss could spell the end for Vince Velasquez staying in the Phillies' starting rotation. So maybe one good thing came out of that defeat for the Phillies. Philadelphia manager Joe Girardi said it was the poorest his team played all season. How's that for a kick in the pants? Philadelphia trails the Mets by 3 1/2 games in the NL East. The Phillies can't afford to keep losing to the team that has the second-worst record in the National League. Nola should fix that. He's coming off one of his strongest starts pitching 8 2/3 innings against the Braves giving up one run on four hits and no walks with nine strikeouts this past Sunday. The Pirates had scored four runs in their last four games before Friday's game. The Phillies bolstered its bullpen, acquiring veteran Ian Kennedy, who was solid as the Rangers closer. Kennedy is expected to be available if needed. Second-year pitcher JT Brubaker goes for Pittsburgh. Brubaker showed some early-season promise, but has hit the wall. He hasn't won since May 11. Brubaker missed most of 2019 in the minors because of a forearm injury. He pitched 47 1/3 innings in the majors last season. He's gone 96 1/3 innings this season, throwing nearly 1,500 pitches. Brubaker has surrendered 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings. During this time frame, he's given up 18 hits and eight homers. The Phillies are hoping to get back both Rhys Hoskins (groin) and Jean Segura (knee) today. They missed Friday's game. Neither is expected to go on the injured list. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has three premium baseball plays going today in addition to this free selection headed by his Max Unit Day Game Dominator. All of Stephen's plays come with his signature in-depth analysis.) |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 30, 2021 Twins vs Cardinals |
Cardinals -140 at William Hill |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Twins' highly disappointing season just got worse. Minnesota dealt its best pitcher, Jose Berrios, to the Blue Jays today. Berrios was supposed to start against St. Louis. Instead the Twins will go with reliever Griffin Jax, who has a 7.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Cardinals are hanging in going 14-10 in their last 24 games. St. Louis is pitching veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc, who has a 3.45 ERA with the Cardinals. He's backed by Alex Reyes, who has been one of the best closers in baseball with 24 saves in 25 opportunities and a 1.93 ERA. Minnesota has lost 25 of the past 34 times it has faced a lefty starter. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 30, 2021 Orioles vs Tigers |
OVER 9½ -103 |
Lost $103.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Orioles have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.48. Matt Harvey has contributed to that with a 6.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 88 innings. These hideous numbers include Harvey inexplicably riding a string of 12 scoreless innings in a row. I'm not counting on Harvey to throw a third straight well-pitched game. The Tigers are averaging 8.5 runs in their last four games. The Over is 22-7-1 in Detroit's last 30 games against a righty starter. Baltimore, though, should do its share of damage against lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Skubal is a good strikeout pitcher, but he gives up way too many homers - nine in 32 innings last season and 22 in 99 2/3 innings this year. Skubal yielded three homers in five innings against the Royals in his last start. The Orioles have the second-highest batting average in the American League versus lefties. The Over has cashed 16 of the past 22 times when the Orioles have gone against a southpaw. Weather-wise, the forecast is for wind to be blowing out to right at 7 mph. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 30, 2021 Astros vs Giants |
Giants -111 at pinnacle |
Lost $111.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| You don't fade the Astros. You just like the other side better when the price is right. That's the case here. San Francisco has the highest winning percentage in the majors. The Giants are 33-16 at home and have their ace, Kevin Gausman, going. He's having a breakthrough season with a 9-4 record, 2.21 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 20 starts. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who I like but not as much as Gausman. Prior to shutting out the punchless Rangers for six innings during his last start, Valdez has given up 11 earned runs in three prior starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. The Giants also have the stronger bullpen with the sixth-lowest ERA in the majors. The Astros' bullpen is mediocre. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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