Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 22, 2019
Clippers vs Cavs
-6½ -108 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Break up the Cavaliers? I don't think so. Cleveland has won two in row beating the Bucks and Pistons. Milwaukee was minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Detroit didn't have Blake Griffin when Cleveland posted those victories. 

 The Clippers are at full strength and going for playoff seeding. LA should be fully focused having been idle the past two days and realizing the Cavaliers have won two straight.  Collin Sexton is having a strong rookie season, but Cleveland doesn't offer much else. Kevin Love, the Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, may not play due to a concussion.  The Clippers average 10 points more per game than the Cavaliers. Cleveland has had problems matching up when taking on opponents from the superior Western Conference going 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS the past eight times. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Arizona State vs Buffalo
-4½ -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Top Premium
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad.  The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season.  I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent.  The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones.  Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor.  Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
OVER 126½ -109 Won
Play Type: Premium
VCU ranks 10th defensively in the country. Central Florida gives up the 27th fewest points. So naturally we have a low opening total. But don't be surprised if far more points are scored than anticipated.  Central Florida produced 69 and 68 points, respectively, against Houston this season. The Cougars were statistically even better than VCU ranking eighth in the nation in fewest points allowed per game.  VCU has a string of scoring 69 or more points in 10 consecutive games.  The point spread is around pick, too, so overtime remains a real possibility. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 23, 2019
Murray State vs Florida State
Murray State
+5 -115 at betonline
Play Type: Top Premium
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference.  But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season.  Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday.  Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers.  Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.  

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.