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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NFL | Nov 18, 2018 Panthers vs. Lions |
Total 49½ -108 at 5DIMES |
started |
| Carolina's defense is looking for redemption after getting embarrassed on national television last Thursday by the Steelers, 52-21. The Panthers defense is much better than that. The Lions are trying to transition from being a passing team to a ground-oriented one. It hasn't working out. Rookie Kerryon Johnson has flashed at times, but Detroit's ground game still is below average ranking 23rd. The Panthers have the ninth-best run defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions' passing attack has gone downhill. Matthew Stafford is not having a good season. He has been sacked 16 times in the last two games and has committed 11 turnovers on the season. Much of Stafford's fairly respectable-looking statistics have come during garbage time. Losing guard T.J. Lang to a neck injury was a below-the-radar, but key injury to the Lions' offensive line. Stafford is without his two best wide receiving targets as Golden Tate was traded a couple of weeks ago and Marvin Jones is out with a knee injury. Stafford probably is going to throw short passes and target Theo Riddick out of the backfield. The Panthers, though, have outstanding athletic coverage linebackers. Carolina has averaged 35.5 points in its last four home games. But on the road, the Panthers are averaging 20.7 points. Detroit's secondary should play better. Darius Slay, the Lions' top defensive back, is back from injury and the Panthers have mediocre wide receivers. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the hottest football handicappers in North America. Since September is a combined 90-58-3 for 61 percent on his premium/free NFL and college football plays. Stephen has five premium NFL plays today in addition to this free selection headed by his Game of the Month.) | ||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Nov 17, 2018 Jazz vs Celtics |
UNDER 208½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Celtics got past Toronto, 123-116 in overtime, last night. The Celtics should not be in a letdown mode facing the Jazz, who beat them 123-115 eight days ago in Salt Lake City. Boston will look to clamp down defensively. The Jazz shot an unsustaniable 55.8 percent from the field in that victory. The Celtics did not defend well in that game. Boston also won't be looking to play up-tempo in the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz only scored 68 points in a road game two games ago against the Mavericks. Utah's offense needs Donovan Mitchell to have big performances. Mitchell, though, is in a slump shooting just 33.3 percent in his last four games while committing 12 turnovers. The Celtics rank No. 1 in 3-point defense and third overall in points given up. Look for a complete reversal from the heavy scoring that was done in the first matchup as the Jazz have to rely on their top-10 defense to hang in. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Nov 17, 2018 Panthers vs Rangers |
Rangers +122 at betonline |
Won $122 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Both the Panthers and Rangers had winning streaks snapped in their last games. Florida had won five in a row. But the Panthers were outscored, 7-1, during the final two periods by the Blue Jackets on Thursday. I don't see the Panthers snapping back so fast against the Rangers, who are 6-2 in their last eight games. New York is 4-0 in its last four home games. The Panthers have lost during nine of their last 13 away games to the Rangers. Florida also carries a high fatigue rating as this marks its fifth game in eight days. So I'll go ahead and take a plus price with the Rangers. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Nov 17, 2018 Virginia vs Georgia Tech |
Virginia +5 -105 at 5Dimes |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Even though this is a division game it's kind of a sandwich spot for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a huge win against Miami and are at hated in-state rival Georgia next week. Virginia is playing well winning four of its last five games. The Cavaliers had a much easier game than Georgia Tech last week dispatching Liberty, 45-24. Unlike Georgia Tech, Virginia has a balanced attack. Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins is No. 1 in the ACC in points accounting for 26 TD's. The Yellow Jackets have a below average defense giving up 27.5 points per game. The Cavaliers know how to defend Georgia Tech's unique option offense thanks to head coach Bronco Mendenhall. His teams are 9-2 SU and ATS when facing triple-option opponents. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Nov 17, 2018 Wisconsin vs Purdue |
Wisconsin +4 -105 at 5Dimes |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| This has been a disappointing season for Wisconsin. But the Badgers shouldn't be a road 'dog against Purdue. Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 12 straight times, including the past seven at Purdue. The Badgers have lost to strong competition. They might not have their starting quarterback, Alex Hornibrook, back either. He's questionable with a concussion. But Wisconsin wins behind star running back Jonathan Taylor and one of the top offensive lines in the country. Taylor leads the nation in rushing with 1,548 yards. The Boilermakers peaked when they upset Ohio State. They have lost two of their past three games losing by 10 to Michigan State and by 31 to Minnesota. Their lone win during the past three games came by two points at home against Iowa. The Boilermakers may be distracted by frequent coaching rumors surrounding Jeff Brohm their head coach. Wisconsin has covered 12 of its last 16 road games. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Nov 17, 2018 Texas Tech vs Kansas State |
Kansas State +7 -129 at GTBets |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| Kansas State is a must-win mode if it wants to make it nine straight years of going to a bowl game. The Wildcats have a strong history of covering as a 'dog under Bill Snyder and they surely won't lack motivation here with speculation this could be Snyder's final home game. He could be retiring after 27 years of coaching. So this is going to be an emotional setting at Bill Snyder Family Memorial Stadium. Kansas State has lost three games by a combined nine points. The Wildcats have the superior rushing attack - led by Alex Barnes one the best running backs in the country - and better defense. Texas Tech has been regressing. The Red Raiders have lost three in a row. They are likely not to have injured quarterback Alan Bowman available. He's recovering from a lung injury. Kansas State has won the last three in the series, including winning 42-35 at Texas Tech last season. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Nov 17, 2018 Connecticut vs East Carolina |
OVER 69 -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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This might seem like a very high total until your realize Connecticut lost 62-50 to SMU last week. The Huskies could have the worst defense in the nation ranking last or near the bottom in yards and points given up. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers has looked very good the past three games proving to be an effective dual threat. The Huskies will put up their share of points against an East Carolina defense that gives up nearly 35 points a game and ranks 107th in scoring defense. The Pirates have surrendered 35 or more points in five of their last six games. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Nov 17, 2018 UL-Monroe vs Arkansas State |
OVER 66 -109 |
Lost $109.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Defense? What defense. Not when these two teams meet. The Over has cashed five of the past six times they have met. Arkansas State beat UL-Monroe 67-50 last season. Both offenses are gliding along. Monroe has scored 38 or more in three of its last four games. Arkansas State is averaging 44 points in its last four games and going against the Warhawks' 96th ranked defense both in points allowed and yards allowed. | ||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Nov 18, 2018 Texans vs Redskins |
Texans -142 at pinnacle |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Texans come in off their bye to face a Redskins team that lacks dynamic skill position players and is down three starting offensive linemen, including both of their guards and star left tackle Trent Williams. Houston should easily win the line of scrimmage with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney potentially dominating. Washington was extremely fortunate to get past the self-destructing Buccaneers last week. The Redskins were outgained by 215 yards. The Texans have won their last three road games. DeShaun Watson and Lamar Miller are playing better. DeAndre Hopkins is in the argument for best wide receiver in football and now he's joined by Demaryious Thomas, who has shown renewed life since joining Houston. I just don't believe the Redskins are any good. This is a spot to fade them with the superior team. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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