Stephen Nover

Some of the stars are missing, but the Chargers still hold a massive talent edge on the Texans. It's a circle-the-wagons game for the Chargers, too, after their 38-10 home loss to Jacksonville last Sunday.

No Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen and Rashawn Slater. But Justin Herbert showed his guts throwing for nearly 300 yards last week despite a painful rib injury. The gutty Herbert can be counted on - and that's what matters here. He's thrown for at least 300 passing yards during his last six road contests. It's a plus if Pro Bowl center Corey Linsley can return.

Joshua Palmer is one of the better No.3 wideouts in the league. So the loss of Allen isn't that severe. Khalil Mack is back to being a pass rushing terror so the Chargers still can bother Davis Mills without Bosa.

The bar is not set high at all here for the Chargers. The Texans are spunky, but devoid of talent. They are winless and probably the worst team in the NFL. Houston has gained the fourth-fewest yards while allowing the third-most yards. They have the worst run defense in the league by a wide margin surrendering 202.3 yards on the ground.

So this game set up well for Austin Ekeler, who is overdue to have a big rushing game to go with his strengths as a pass-catching running back.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is having a banner NFL season going 15-6-1 on his plays looking to beat the NFL for the 27th time in the last 30 years. Stephen has five premium plays today in addition to this free selection headed by his AFC Game of the Month and Sunday Night Blockbuster. Stephen also is having a huge college football season going 22-10 on his premium/free plays.)

The Buccaneers have given up the fewest points in the league. Tom Brady is off to a slow start. The Chiefs are off a loss to the Colts in which they were held to 17 points.

So I get why this total is low given the caliber of these offenses.

I just find it too low.

The Chiefs had scored 24 or more points in 10 straight games until last week's loss to the Colts. The Chiefs were hurt offensively by some questionable official's calls and missed kicks from a backup kicker. They have since switched kickers with Harrison Butker still not ready.

The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense. No argument there. But it's not as dominant as the numbers show. Tampa Bay's opponents were the Cowboys, who are thin at wide receiver and in the offensive line, turnover-prone and banged-up Jameis Winston and the Saints and the ground-oriented Packers, who are in wide receiver development.

Kansas City doesn't have superstar Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs, though, have better wide receiver and running back depth than they've had before to compensate. They are two levels higher than any offense the Buccaneers have faced so far this season.

The Buccaneers are not facing an elite defense taking on the Chiefs. Brady should get back into rhythm with the Buccaneers getting healthier in the offensive line and at wide receiver. Mike Evans coming off suspension is huge.

The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league.

Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line?

The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers.

I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense.

Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season.

Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow.

Both teams have surprised on offense. The Browns are averaging 28.3 points, rank fifth in total yards and have the NFL's leading rusher, Nick Chubb. 

The Falcons are averaging 26.7 points. They've faced a pair of respectable defenses, too, in the Rams and Saints. 

A key is each team's quarterback has performed better than many expected. Jacoby Brissett has completed 74 percent of his throws with three TD passes during his last two games. Marcus Mariota has completed 63.3 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, on the season. He's given the Falcons a running dimension they haven't had at quarterback during the long Matt Ryan era. 

The Falcons have three playmakers - Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Browns permitted washed-up Joe Flacco to have his best game in a decade two weeks ago allowing him to throw for 307 yards and four TD passes. The Browns lost linebacker Anthony Walker to a season-ending injury last week and won't have premier pass rusher Myles Garrett, who was involved in a car accident this week. 

The Browns' dominant offensive line should control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons. Atlanta yields 27 points a game and ranks 26th in total defense. 

The Seahawks blasted the Lions, 51-29, in Week 17 last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 170 yards in that game.

Since then the Seahawks have gotten worse and the Lions have improved. Detroit's improvement has come on offense. Defensively the Lions remain inept. They are last in scoring defense surrendering 31 points a game and 29th in total defense. They only have two takeaways and just lost Tracy Walker for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He was one of the Lions' few good players on defense and a team captain.

The Seahawks have enough playmakers around Geno Smith to produce points against such a weak defense. Seattle also has enough defense to keep this close - if not pull the upset - when you take away the Lions' two best skill position players plus their kicker. That's the case here. D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Austin Seibert are all out.

I like the Lions in an underdog role. But laying points is not something I want to do with Detroit especially when the team is minus the dynamic Swift and reliable go-to receiver St. Brown.

The Raiders are 0-3. But they could be 3-0. The Broncos are 2-1, but could be 0-3. 

So don't be too surprised that Las Vegas is favored against Denver. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks and defeated the winless Texans and disappointing 49ers by a combined eight points needing fourth quarter comebacks. 

The Raiders have yet to play a complete game. Las Vegas goes on the road to meet the Chiefs next week. So this clearly is a circle-the-wagons game for them.

Denver's defense has put up some outstanding statistics. The quarterbacks the Broncos have faced are Geno Smith, Davis Mills and a rusty Jimmy Garoppolo. Derek Carr is a cut above those quarterbacks and has two elite receiving weapons to challenge a Denver secondary that is minus star safety Justin Simmons with Davante Adams and Darren Waller.

Russell Wilson has had only one good drive in three games for the Seahawks. He has just two TD passes and 22 yards rushing. He sure looks like he has regressed. Maxx Crosby is one of the better pass rushers in the league. Las Vegas also expects to get back from injury a pair of underrated defenders, linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Tre'von Moehrig. 

The Raiders have owned the Broncos winning and covering six of the last seven in the series.