Scott Rickenbach

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NHL Game #9 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers @ 7:05 ET - The premise of the zig zag theory is that markets tend to react to the most recent match-ups and that can often create value in actually having a contrarian viewpoint to how the markets react. In other words, if the market "zigs" you can count on me to - more often than not, "zag". With the Panthers off a 7-3 loss with Roberto Luongo in goal and the Rangers off a 7-5 loss with Henrik Lundqvist in goal, there will be a tendency to expect a bounce back from each of these hockey club's veteran goalie as well as their overall performance on defense in this game. While I understand that theory here, the fact is that this low total is giving us superb value on the over. We have a total of 5.5 goals even though both teams have done well on the power play this season plus have struggled on the penalty kill. We should definitely see some special teams goals here. Additionally, overall, the Panthers have averaged scoring 3.7 goals per game their last 6 games. The Rangers have averaged scoring 3.6 goals per game their last 8 games. These are two hockey teams that have plenty of confidence right now about scoring goals and yet we've got a low total to work with due to the situation and market perception noted above. Also, the last 7 meetings between these teams saw one total push while the other 6 went a perfect 6-0 to the over. I expect that trend to remain PERFECT in this one! 8* OVER the total in New York Rangers

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Game #12 Saturday Free Pick Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7:05 ET - It wasn't easy but we cashed right here in this spot yesterday with our big dog Friday on the Buffalo Sabres and I feel this is another superb value spot for backing an underdog Saturday. Not only is Sidney Crosby out for the Penguins in this one but Pittsburgh was already struggling mightily. The Pens have lost 7 of their past 8 games! Pittsburgh also has lost 5 of 6 games this season against teams with a losing record. The Penguins have a habit of overlooking "lesser" teams and the fact is Ottawa is actually finally getting back on track with wins in 3 of their last 5 games as they look to turn things around. The Senators also have won 3 of their last 5 games. Having lost all 3 meetings with the Penguins last season and a playoff series the year before, you know this game means a lot to the home dog Sens. That post-season loss was in 7 games and in double OT and it was the Eastern Conference finals. Suffice to say the Senators are still seeking redemption after losing all 3 games in last year's regular season match-ups. Look for the Sens to improve to an impressive 5-1 this season in Saturday games. Free Pick OTTAWA

NHL Network Crusher Day Game - Rickenbach NHL Game #3 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 1:05 ET - Both teams with injury issues at goalie. The Lightning are expected to have Louis Dominque between the pipes because of the injury to Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Flyers are expected to have Calvin Pickard between the pipes due to Brian Elliott and Michal Neurvirth injuries. That is certainly significant here as the over is 4-1 in Dominque's five road starts this season and the over is a perfect 5-0 in Pickard's starts this season. Philadelphia is off rare back to back low-scoring games. They had previously averaged scoring 4.2 goals per game in their 6 prior games. Tampa Bay is an offensive juggernaut and has averaged 3.9 goals per game in its last 9 games. The Flyers will respond after some ugly efforts and will score well here but they're going to struggle to stop the powerhouse Bolts. The 3 games between these clubs last season averaged 9 goals per game and I wouldn't be surprised to see the lamp get lit that many times in this one Saturday as well. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #584 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Furman Paladins @ 5 ET - The Paladins are in the wrong place at the wrong time. We're getting some line value here because Furman is 4-0 on the season. Everyone can see that unblemished record and those same people also witnessed Villanova get crushed by Michigan on Wednesday. The result is that this line is being kept lower than it should be. The Wildcats are angry and will respond huge at home in what is their final home game until facing Temple on December 5th! That is a span of nearly 3 weeks so the Cats want o make this one count, particularly after what just happened against the Wolverines. Of course coach Jay Wright will have this Villanova team ready to go and they're going to take advantage of a Furman team that has a good record the past 3 seasons but that lost a ton of talent coming into this season. The Paladins lost a pair of 1,000 point scorers plus another pair of seniors. They still have enough talent to beat other teams in their conference and at a similar level to them. But the fact is Furman is stepping way up in class here and they're traveling to Villanova at absolutely the worst possible time. Look for the Paladins to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS versus Big East opponents. As for the Wildcats, they add to a 24-11 ATS run when facing teams that average 77 points or more per game. Also, the Cats are 19-9 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s. 8* VILLANOVA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Saturday 8* Utah Jazz (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Jazz and that the Celtics have revenge, it is arguably a tougher spot for Boston! That is because the Celtics are off a huge "marquee match-up" win over Toronto last night. Not only was that a huge game for Boston that is the type of W that can leave a team flat in their next game, particularly when playing a non-conference opponent, it also took a lot out of the Celtics physically and emotionally because it went to OT. As for the Jazz, they are off a loss at Philly last night, but they only made 4 of 22 three pointers while the Sixers drained 11 from beyond the arc. Of course that 21 point difference in long-range points had a lot to do with the final outcome and Utah comes out very hungry tonight after the late loss (led by 2 late in 4th) to the 76ers. The Jazz are 22-12 SU in Saturday games and improve to 3-0 (SU and ATS) this season when off a non-conference game. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in non-conference games this season and Boston is also 0-3 ATS when playing on back to back days. 8* UTAH

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #417 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - This is the classic situation where I like backing the underdog. The higher ranked team is at home and is laying (in many spots) less than a field goal. Also, the team that is ranked higher is also off a big road win. This is the type of situation where many are enticed to simply lay the small number with the home team when the reality is there is good reason the line is so low. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and I expect that to favor Iowa State. The Cyclones come into this game extremely confident with wins in 5 straight games and averaging 35 points per game during this winning streak. It is no coincidence that this 5-game run has come with Brock Purdy at QB. The Iowa State quarterback has been red hot and I look for him to take advantage of a struggling UT defense today. The Longhorns are banged up in the secondary and, since their bye week on October 20th, the Horns have had to play 3 straight tough offenses. This wears a defense down as Texas has tried to stop Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech the past 3 weeks. The Longhorns, though the beat the Red Raiders last week, certainly have struggled to get stops! Texas has allowed 38 points per game their last 3 games and over 500 yards of offense in 4 of their last 5 games including each of these last 3. The Horns are beat up and road-weary as this will be just their 3rd home game since blasting TCU nearly two months ago! Iowa State has lost both match-ups with Texas since Matt Campbell took over as head coach. This game today has "payback" written all over it as the Cyclones are surging! The Longhorns, though they won in this role last week, are still an ugly 2-11 ATS when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are now facing a team playing with revenge. Like I said, UT got the job done in that role last week but this is rare for them and, this week, Iowa State gets their revenge! The Cyclones are on a 13-3 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record under coach Campbell and they get the job done again here. 10* IOWA STATE

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #403 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers @ 4:30 ET - Beautiful weather in Seattle, WA for this game and the Huskies should have no problem rolling right through the Beavers defense. The thing that I feel will surprise many in this one is that Oregon State should also score well against the Washington defense. The Huskies are in a tricky scheduling spot. Even though Washington is off a bye week they have a huge rivalry game on deck with Washington State. It is nearly impossible for the Huskies to avoid looking ahead to the Cougars, especially if they get a sizable lead in this game which they certainly should as evidenced by the point spread of nearly 5 TDs! Washington, even if distracted, will have no trouble scoring on the Beavers as they're allowing 45 points per game this season. However, what is intriguing here is that Oregon State has averaged 440 yards per game this season on the road! Also the Beavers had scored an average of 33.3 points per game in their 3 road games prior to being held to 17 points at Stanford last week. The over is a perfect 5-0 in Oregon State's road games this season. Long-term the Beavers are 10-2 to the over in road games where they are an underdog of 21.5 points or more! Washington State is 3-1 to the over when off a bye week and the Huskies are 4-2 to the over when they are a favorite of 31 points or more. The over is 11-6 in match-ups between these teams and the Huskies have averaged scoring 48 points per game in the last 5 meetings. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington 

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach CFB Game #389 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma State Cowboys vs West Virginia @ 3:30 ET - This is a contrarian totals play as the bigger total the more likely it is to draw attention from "under" players. In this case I just don't see either team getting enough stops to keep this game under the total. Both teams have very potent offenses and the weather is going to be perfect in Stillwater, OK today with temperatures likely in the low 60s at kickoff and no precipitation. The wind could be picking up a little as the game goes on but nothing too significant. As for these two offenses, the Mountaineers have one of the most efficient offense in the nation as they are averaging 7.3 yards per play. The Cowboys have one of the fastest offenses in the nation (in terms of pace of play) as they are averaging 77 plays per game. West Virginia has been red hot and has averaged scoring 49 points per game its last 3 games. Oklahoma State's last 6 games featured one bad game, a dud at Kansas State. In the other 5 games the Cowboys averaged scoring 41.2 points per game. Last year's game had "only" 33 points at the half but ended up with 89 points. The Mountaineers are 5-2 to the over in games played on turf this season. Oklahoma State is a long-term 17-4 to the over in home games with a posted total of 70 points or more. The takeaway is that, though this total may seem big, it should prove to be not nearly enough. The over is on a 7-2 run in OSU November games and a 14-4 run in Cowboys home games. Those trends continue here. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma State

Contrarian Crusher Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #400 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - When the lines first game out this one had to be a head-scratcher in most peoples books. Boston College is a ranked team and their loss to Clemson snapped a stretch that had seen the Eagles win 3 straight games SU and 4 in a row ATS. As for the Seminoles they've lost 3 straight games by a combined score of 148 to 51. That is an average losing margin of 32.3 points per game and yet this line opened up at nearly a pick'em! If there ever was a perfect play to fit into my contrarian system. This is it! Florida State is the type of team that is ultra-talented but yet has moments where they frustrate the hell out of their backers. The fact is that this line was set this way for a reason and I am grabbing the Noles as they catch the Eagles flat after that huge night game at home last week versus Clemson and with FSU having played better statistically than what the recent final scores would indicate. Long-term, in games with a line between +3 and -3, the Seminoles are on a 23-10 ATS run. Look for the Eagles to drop to 4-8 SU in their last dozen games played on grass. 8* FLORIDA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #364 Saturday 8* Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Utah Utes @ 1:30 ET - This is a tough spot for the Utes. Utah is off a big win versus Oregon and has another big home game with BYU on deck. The Buffaloes have a couple advantages here. Not only do they catch the Utes in a tricky scheduling spot, they are also at home and it is likely to be snowing during this game. Poor weather conditions generally tend to help the underdog and I like the fact we can get the Buffaloes at more than a TD in some spots as of early gameday morning. Colorado is 5-2 ATS in this series. Also, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. When the Utes are off a SU win which they also covered ATS, and are facing a team off B2B SU losses, Utah has gone 1-6 ATS. Combined edges of 16-4 / 80% ATS here are in favor of the Buffaloes and I believe Mother Nature favors the home team in this one too as a sizable home dog. Look for the Buffaloes to get the job done in their home finale. 8* COLORADO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Huge game in the NFC North and a rare situation in that the Vikings are having to look UP in the standings at the Bears! Minnesota has won 3 straight games against Chicago and the Vikings are also off their bye week. They will be "more than ready" in this opportunity to leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the division. Even though Chicago has won 3 straight games, those victories all came against teams that not only have losing records on the season but actually each have only 3 wins on the season! The Vikings have played a tougher schedule than the Bears this season and yet have managed to hang "right there" with Chicago in the standings. Keep in mind the Vikings got an ATS win (or at worst "push") at the LA Rams earlier this season, they also beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in an outright upset AT Philly, and they also outgained the Saints by over 150 yards in their loss to New Orleans! Those are some strong performances against respectable teams and I feel we're getting great value here against a Bears team that, though improved, still has to show they can rise up in a huge game like this. Keep in mind that Chicago hasn't played a playoff game since 2010. The Vikings have played in 3 playoff games in the past 3 seasons under head coach Mike Zimmer. The reason I mention this is because this game is going to be played at a "playoff-level intensity" and the battle-tested Vikings have an edge in this type of game in my opinion. Note that head coach Zimmer has produced a 13-1 ATS record his last 14 in games against teams that are off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, Zimmer is 16-5 ATS when off a divisional game. The Bears are on a 5-16 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B home games. Last, but certainly not least, here is an interesting "kicker" to wrap this one up. Chicago is 0-12 ATS in divisional games when they are off a double digit SU win in which they also scored more than 28 points. Beautiful set-up here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #459 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are on a tremendous roll and looking like the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have played this season as just a shadow of the team that, in February, staked their claim as the best team in the NFL. Now Philadelphia gets a chance to knock their replacement, New Orleans, off their pedestal. I know this is a contrarian play but it is the type of situation that has cashed for me so many times in the past, it is the reason it is worthy of big investment for me in this situation Sunday. The Saints have won 8 straight games SU and they've won 7 straight games ATS. Conversely, the Eagles have lost 4 of their last 6 games SU. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-6 ATS skid since winning and covering their opening game this season. Why then the play on the Eagles? There is still plenty of talent on this team. Ever since the ugly road loss at Tampa Bay they've played better away from Philly this season than they have at home. They lost in OT at Tennessee but crushed the Giants in New York and beat the Jaguars in London. Granted not great teams but they've not lost a road game by more than 6 points all season. Even that ugly loss to TB was decided by just 6 points. In fact, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants is the only game they've been involved in this season that was decided by more than 7 points. The point is that these are still the defending super bowl champs and they are not an easy team to blowout no matter who you are. They are a strong team in the trenches on both sides of the ball and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Eagles are a much better team (proven by long-term records) when Johnson is out there. This is a key to success on offense, and keep in mind, the Saints defense ranks 27th based on points allowed this season. Yes New Orleans has a fantastic offense but the Eagles defense ranks 5th based on points allowed this season. Philadelphia has a dangerous pass rush and also does a great job of stopping the run. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league for qb sacks. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in non-divisional action and they have a big divisional game with Falcons on deck. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philly is 5-1 ATS when off a SU loss and facing an opponent that is off a SU win by double digits. That system fits perfectly here as the Saints blasted the Bengals last week. Also, one final "kicker" here that is also in play. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS when off a SU win by double digits and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a looking record on the season! Don't be surprised if the Eagles pull off the shocker here and win this game outright to improve on the ugly 4-5 season record they have. At the very least, they should get the cover and stay inside this inflated number! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - This line was up around a TD and has dropped to a 5 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and laying the points with the road favorite here. Many are surprised to see a team that came inches from the super bowl last season getting so many points on their home field. However, the Jaguars have faded big time this season and can't be trusted while the Steelers offense is rolling and should be able to pile up plenty of points here. Pittsburgh has averaged 35.4 points their last 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Steelers have won and covered 5 straight games while the Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and also have not gotten a single ATS win during this streak. There are two other keys here besides the current level of play of these team teams. The Steelers have a rest edge here since they had the Thursday game last week and also, the big one is that Pittsburgh has revenge from January's playoff loss (at home!) to the Jaguars. It is payback time here. I know Jacksonville has good ATS history versus the Steelers, particularly when at home, but this Jags team is a mess right now. Also, as home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Jacksonville is a long-term 9-20 ATS! I also like the fact that the Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. That SU dominance is noteworthy here as the team that has been the SU winner in every single Jaguars game and every single Pittsburgh game this season has been the ATS winner. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as the Steelers win and get the road cover in doing so. 8* PITTSBURGH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #454 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Good line value here because, as stated before, the betting markets have a short term memory. As a result, in a case like this, because the Cowboys are off the upset win of the Eagles and the Falcons are off an upset loss to the Browns, this line is being kept lower than it should be. The fact is that Atlanta had turned the corner before losing at Cleveland as they had won 3 straight. Also, Dallas had lost all 4 road games prior to that upset win. Now, in large part because of last week's results, we're able to get the Falcons laying just a field goal at home against the Cowboys. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Atlanta is 7-0 ATS when facing a team that has a losing record on the season and is off a SU divisional win. Of course that system fits perfectly here with the 4-5 Cowboys off the big upset at Philly. The Falcons have dominated Dallas in recent meetings and, in fact, the Cowboys are a poor 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC South opponents. That means this play is supported by combined edges on a 17-1 / 94% ATS run. 8* ATLANTA