Scott Rickenbach

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - The Dodgers delivered the shutout win last night. The over is 20-11 when Los Angeles is off a game in which they shut out their opponent. I look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in LA day games. The weather will be hot and steamy in Cincinnati this afternoon with the winds blowing out toward left center. These are the types of weather days where Great American Ball Park (known as a very hitter-friendly venue) plays out particularly well for the hitters. Even though Walker Buehler has good numbers this season the over is 3-1 in his road starts as he has compiled a 5.40 ERA away from home thus far. Buehler has had success in his two career starts against the Reds but both those were at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now with Cincinnati getting a shot at him at home and with the fact they just faced him last month, I look for the Reds sticks to perform much better today. Keep in mind, Cincinnati had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 7 home games prior to being shutout last night. As for the Dodgers bats, they have scored 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and should enjoy success against Tyler Mahle in this one. LA just faced him last month and got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings of work. The only other start Mahle has against the Dodgers saw him walk 4 batters in just 5 innings of work. You can see why success is unlikely for the Reds right-hander today. Cincy is off rare back to back unders at home as the over was on a 6-1 run in the Reds 7 home games prior to this. All signs point to both teams having plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - These pitchers just matched up Sunday in Tampa Bay and both the Rays Blake Snell and the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka had great starts. However, giving these lineups a quick second look on Saturday coupled with the fact the venue shifts north to the Bronx means I am expecting a much different result in this one. The last time Snell pitched away from home he got rocked for 7 earned runs just 3 innings at Kansas City. Tanaka allowed 9 hits in 6 innings the last time he faced the Rays at Yankee Stadium. Also, in his most recent start against Tampa prior to Sunday's gem, the Yankees right-hander allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in only 4 innings of work! His two prior starts against the Rays (that one at Tampa and the most recent one in the Bronx) have seen Tanaka allow 15 hits in 10 innings against the Rays. We've got a low total to work with here (currently 8 runs) and the over is 5-2 in Yankees Saturday games this season. Also, the Rays have only played 7 games this season against teams with a winning record and yesterday's under was just the 2nd in those 7 games. Look for the bats to come to life this afternoon with hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium. The late runs scored in yesterday's game also show that both bullpens could be susceptible to some damage again this afternoon as well. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND

Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 8* UNDER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Game 2 did go over the total but the Trail Blazers knocked down nearly 50% of their threes and it still barely eclipsed the number. We have another big total to work with here in Game 3 and, keep in mind, Game 1 stayed under the total even though the Warriors knocked down over 50% of their threes. The point is, barring a ridiculous shooting performance from both teams here, we should see this one stay under the total. Of course Golden State remains without Kevin Durant and, with the host in an 0-2 series deficit, Portland is very likely to do their best to turn up the heat defensively in this one. The Blazers know they were done in by lapses on defense that led to some big scoring runs for the Warriors and, at home, they'll be extra cognizant of tightening those things up. 8 of 13 Trail Blazers conference finals games have resulted in an under. The Warriors have stayed under in 14 of 20 games against Northwest Division opponents this season. Also, 16 of 25 Golden State conference finals games have stayed under the total. The Trail Blazers have averaged just 84.5 field goal attempts per game so far in this series and the Warriors have averaged only 83 field goal attempts per game. Those types of numbers are more conducive, in terms of pace, to games landing closer to 210 than to 220 and the fact is there is great value with the big total posted on this game. 8* UNDER the total in Portland

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:10 ET - It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon at a very hitter-friendly venue on Sunday afternoon. No need to rest any hitters here either as both teams have an off-day tomorrow. After the Reds got shutout Friday and the Dodgers got shutout Saturday, look for both teams to finally contribute well to the total in Sunday's match-up. Yes, the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu gives the appearance (from his last 3 starts) that he is practically unhittable, note that this match-up will play out much differently. First off all 3 of those starts were at pitcher-friendly venues - 2 at Dodger Stadium and 1 at San Francisco against the punch-less Giants. In his last 3 starts against the Reds, Ryu has a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his first two road starts this season. He'll be tested big time this afternoon at hitter-friendly Cincy on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out to left at a strong clip. The Dodgers should also pound Tanner Roark. He is on the fade right now and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Simply put, he was lucky the damage wasn't worse in terms of earned runs and that means his status as a "fade candidate" is currently flying "under the radar". We can step in and take advantage. Roark's recent stats were skewed by facing the A's at Oakland and facing the light-hitting Giants. Note that in his other starts this season he has been consistently hit quite hard and I look for the Dodgers to light him up after being shutout yesterday. This is a contrarian play compared to what the markets are seeing and that is precisely the type of play I love the most as we get the best value. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:05 ET - Here with go with the "avoid the sweep" theory leading to false market perception which in turns leads to great line value for contrarian bettors. The fact is that the "avoid the sweep" theory is highly over-rated. You really think the Phillies aren't "in it to win it" today? They have a lengthy road trip coming up after this and, as a result, Philadelphia is just as motivated as the Rockies here. The key to the value is that this line has gone from the Phillies being in the -150 money line range to now as low as the -120 range as of early game day morning. Note that Colorado's Kyle Freeland has allowed SEVEN homers in his last THREE starts! Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff had allowed ZERO homers in his first FOUR starts this season before running into some trouble against the Brewers in his most recent start. Prior to the loss to Milwaukee, Eickhoff had allowed just 5 runs in his first 30 innings of work this season! As for Freeland, he has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. These two starters are at opposite ends of the spectrum right now plus the Phillies have the home field edge here and the line value edge after the big movement on this money line. Note that Philadelphia is 6-1 this season in Sunday games and 10-4 this season in day games. Also, the Phils are 12-4 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 on the money line. The Rockies are 1-5 this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Sunday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 3:05 ET - The Sharks look like an easy choice here, right? They managed to even the series up by winning Game 3 at St Louis and they now have the home ice edge again in the series as a result. However, I love the Blues in this spot. The reasons are multiple. For one thing Erik Karlsson is a key player for San Jose and he does have an injury issue right now. A lot of details are currently known in terms of his availability today but, even if he plays, he is nowhere close to 100%. The key here is that the Sharks had a chance to go in for the kill against the Blues in Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Blues were on the ropes after a frustrating Game 3 loss. In my mind Game 4 was the game for the Sharks to put away St Louis as the Blues would have been fragile mentally after the way they felt they lost Game 3 in OT on a missed call. As it turns out, San Jose failed to take advantage of the situation and St Louis has new life in this series and they will play like it today. Keep in mind the Sharks blew leads of 2-0 and 3-1 in Game 3 of this series and were a bit fortunate to get the win. Then in Game 4 San Jose was down 1-0 right away and eventually 2-0 and they never managed to tie it up. There is a lot to like about the way the Blues have been playing and I am happy to grab them at the underdog price. What about the home ice edge you say? Well the road team is 11-6 in St Louis' playoff games in this post-season! Also, the Blues have won 6 of their 8 playoff road games. 10* ST LOUIS

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks most recent road game stayed under the total but that ended a perfect 6-0 streak of overs in Milwaukee road games. The fact is that the Bucks are truly proving very difficult to stop as they have scored 28 points or more in 6 of the last 7 quarters in this series. In addition to Milwaukee piling up the points, I also like the fact that the Raptors are now back home and they did score 64 points in the 2nd half of Game 2 which gives them some momentum and confidence on the offensive end despite being in an 0-2 hole in the series. Also, Toronto jumped on the Bucks in Game 1 of this series with a 59 point first half. They just couldn't sustain it. But, at home, the Raptors are likely to sustain a strong performance on offense and, at the same time, I just don't see them stopping Milwaukee considering how potent their production on offense has been. The Bucks are not only 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games away from home, they are also 8-4 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Toronto is 19-11 to the over when playing with revenge this season. The Raptors are averaging 114 points in home games this season while Milwaukee averages 117 points per game in road games this season. Yes this is playoff basketball but we've seen huge scoring stretches from both teams already in this series and I like the fact the Raptors are on their home floor and need to respond with a huge performance on the offensive end but also won't be able to stop the Bucks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto