Jim Feist

The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints NFC South showdown on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is an over bet for multiple reasons, which when added together outweigh the season-long totals that are low for both of these teams. Defensively, both teams have had serious issues against the big play and the matchups on both sides of the ball create offenses with the potential to both string together long, sustained drives as well as get explosive. While the Panthers offense has been very streaky this season, when they have gone up against the type of defense that New Orleans has shown to be susceptible to – specifically with speed and misdirection, they’ve had success. The Panthers’ young quarterback has looked increasingly comfortable going downfield, and with a Saints secondary that has been very susceptible to both breakdowns and big-play liabilities, Carolina has a potential offensive ceiling if the game script requires them to play catchup. Meanwhile, New Orleans has looked at their best when playing at home, where their offense has found its rhythm quickly more often than not. The Saints passing game has been much more aggressive this season and against a Panthers defense that has had trouble generating consistent pressure as well as being susceptible to the big play, New Orleans should be able to both create explosive pass plays as well as through the ground. The Saints’ red-zone efficiency, which is much better at home, also sets them up for a better chance to turn drives into touchdowns, rather than field goals.

Divisional games tend to be low-scoring by nature, but divisional familiarity also has a tendency to open up more scoring opportunities, simply because each team knows the other’s tendencies and the ways to attack the other’s defense, and the defenses here have shown enough inconsistency for both teams that scoring opportunities are likely throughout the game. Carolina has the potential to provide more offense than has been expected so far this season, and the Saints have the elements for a strong offensive showing at home. Considering all of the elements, the ingredients for a higher-scoring game are present.

Jim's Play: 475. Panthers/Saints OVER

The Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday, December 13, 2025 is one to target as a strong play over the total. San Francisco’s offense is one of the most efficient and explosive in the NFL, with the ability to produce chunk plays through both the air and on the ground, forcing their opponents to respond early and often. Christian McCaffrey while physically healthy has been dealing with an illness this last week but should be ready for Sunday. The 49ers passing game has been hitting on all cylinders lately with play-action and motion concepts opening up big play opportunities. Tennessee’s defense has been weak against dynamic offenses and they figure to be tested early and often against San Francisco.

The Titans themselves have been a more aggressive offensive team in recent weeks. Their passing game has come alive with improved play at quarterback and a stronger group of receivers, and they have shown a greater propensity to push the ball downfield on the deep ball when game script allows it. Against a 49ers defense that has been strong but has not been completely impenetrable when it comes to well-timed vertical shots or misdirection concepts, Tennessee has a chance to produce scoring drives of their own. Tennessee’s run game also remains strong enough to help control the tempo of the game and create red?zone opportunities, which is critical for keeping the scoreboard ticking.

What makes this matchup so attractive for the over is how it’s likely to play out. San Francisco’s offense should force their opponents into catch-up mode, with a faster pace and a greater pass volume as a result. Tennessee is built to play in that type of environment, and the improvements they’ve made to their own offense make them far more capable of trading scores in that type of game script than in years past. Add in the 49ers’ proven ability to score quickly and Tennessee’s improved ability to sustain drives, and the recipe is in place for a game that will see multiple momentum swings and consistent scoring throughout.

Jim's Play: 479. Titans/49ers OVER 

The matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears on Sunday in mid-December sets up as a classic AFC/NFC grinder that points strongly to the under. First, the setting matters: December in Cleveland typically means cold temperatures, swirling winds off Lake Erie, and a heavy field that slows down speed on the perimeter.  And right now it's expected to be around 13 degrees with wind chills reaching -20 degrees. This will lean heavily at making this game a more defensive battle. 

From a matchup standpoint, the Browns’ defensive profile leans toward a low total as well. In recent seasons, Cleveland has built one of the better defenses in the league. The Browns have the 2nd ranked over defense and the league's top rushing defense.  Chicago’s offense, even with a dynamic quarterback and improved skill talent, has still tended to be streaky and at its best when the run game is working and the play-action is respected. Against a front as physical as Cleveland’s, sustained 70–80 yard drives are difficult to string together, and red-zone trips often stall into field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns.

On the other side, the Browns’ offense also quietly supports an under. They’ve often leaned on their ground game and short passing attack, playing methodical, possession-based football rather than turning games into shootouts. That style shortens the game, keeps their defense fresh, and limits the total number of drives for both teams. Chicago’s defense, while not elite, has improved in the front seven and is better equipped to play the run and force Cleveland into long fields. Add it all up: winter conditions that suppress scoring, two teams comfortable running the ball and grinding clock, a high-end Browns defense, and a Bears offense that’s more workmanlike than explosive. The most likely script is a physical, field-position battle where punts, field goals, and stalled drives outnumber quick-strike touchdowns, making the under my NFL Total of the Year. 

Jim's Play: Take: 461. Browns/Bears UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

The Sunday, December 14 AFC East contest between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots is an intriguing one where New England has a path to the upset and pulling off the victory. New England has been quietly one of the conference’s more disciplined and defensively sound units over the last month, locking down coverage schemes and improving on their situational play. At home, that defensive surge is amplified even further, especially against a Buffalo offense that has been significantly more volatile on the road this season.

Particularly effective has been the Patriots’ defensive front’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing, a crucial component to this game considering how a Bills offense that thrives on short, quick passes and fast tempo can stall out when forced into longer-developing plays. By bottling up Josh Allen in his scramble lanes and forcing Buffalo into third-and-mediums, New England can slow the Bills’ pace and prevent Buffalo from finding their usual groove. New England’s secondary has also seen improved communication and spacing, giving them a chance to limit Buffalo’s big plays in the passing game

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On the other side of the ball, New England has continued to embrace a more balanced, efficient offense tailored to their personnel strengths. A stabilizing run game has allowed them to control possession, chewing up the clock and keeping the chains moving. Against a Bills defense that’s shown some softness against physical rushing attacks, and with the depth concerns and injury issues this season have exacerbated in key run-stopping spots, New England should be able to both sustain drives and keep Allen on the sideline. In short, the Patriots’ ability to control time of possession is a major piece of their upset puzzle.

Factor in the divisional familiarity where games often tighten up, the physicality and strategic nuance ratchet up, and New England’s own recent momentum and the divisional contest tilts to the Patriots being able to grind one out at home. They have the improvements on defense to keep the Bills’ potent offense in check, a ball-control offense on their side, and have the formulas necessary to win this one.  I'll take the Pats at home here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 464. Patriots