Jim Feist

Dodgers starter Tarik Skubal (7-6, 2.81 ERA) made a great Dodgers debut against the Cubs last week, striking out six and surrendering two runs and four hits over six innings. But he’s been even better against Kansas City this season. On July 24, Skubal allowed one run and four hits over 7 1/3 innings and struck out 12 Royals.

Kansas City’s offense ranks near the bottom of baseball this season, checking in at 23rd in runs scored and 20th in OPS. That means the Royals will likely have their hands full against one of baseball’s best lefties. If Skubal pitches remotely like he did against Kansas City last month, the Royals may struggle to muster more than two or three runs.

Completing the Under is Noah Cameron, who has a season ERA of 4.37, but he has been lights out lately. Cameron allowed one run and six hits over his last 23 innings (counting Sunday’s relief appearance), pitching to a 0.39 ERA over his last three appearances. In his last start against Minnesota, he worked eight innings, allowed one run and struck out nine while retiring the final 14 hitters he faced.

Throw in a struggling Los Angeles offense and you have a recipe for under bettor success. The Dodgers rank 24th in MLB in runs scored over their last 15 games, and they’ve scored a combined three runs over their last two games. They are just 11-17 since July 5, and the Dodgers offense managed just six hits in Sunday’s 4-2 loss to Arizona.

Jim's Play: 969. Royals/Dodgers UNDER

I like Atlanta to beat the New York Mets on Monday night. Atlanta has the home-field advantage and their recent play of Bryce Elder gives them a nice edge in the series opener.

Atlanta enters Monday having won nine of its last 11 games and the team has been downright dominant at Truist Park. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta is 12-2 at home. Overall, the Braves have a 39-20 home record this season. Atlanta has won nine straight games at home, so that doesn’t figure to bode well for a Mets team opening up another divisional series on the road.

The biggest difference for me might be starting pitcher Bryce Elder. Elder comes in with an 8-6 record and a 3.69 ERA. Since the All-Star break, Elder has gone 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts. In those four starts he has allowed two runs or fewer in each outing. Elder continued that success in his last start, tossing seven innings of one-hit baseball while allowing one run.

Atlanta’s whole rotation has been good lately. Braves starters have given up three runs or fewer in 18 straight games. That’s the longest active streak in all of baseball. Atlanta has a good chance to keep this one under control until their bullpen takes over late.

New York counters with Christian Scott, who has been good but just hasn’t fared well against Atlanta. Scott is 0-3 in three career starts versus the Braves and is also 0-2 against Atlanta this season. Since the All-Star break, he is 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA in three starts. In his last outing, Scott allowed three runs across five innings against Cleveland.

Atlanta also comes home winners after topping the Yankees 2-1 in 10 innings Sunday. Matt Olson homered for the 34th time this season. Michael Harris II drove in the winning run and Raisel Iglesias and Tyler Kinley finished things off with scoreless relief.

Atlanta has the better team overall, a massive home-field advantage and the hotter starter.  With Elder rolling, Atlanta winning nine of 11 and the Braves being so good at Truist Park, I’ll take Atlanta Monday night.

Jim's Play: 952. Braves

Monday night, I like the Brewers despite San Diego winning its last two games by a combined eight runs. Milwaukee holds edges in starting pitching, bullpen depth and consistency in the lineup.

The first reason to like Milwaukee starts on the mound in Logan Henderson. Henderson (6-1) owns a 2.70 ERA and 3.09 FIP with 62 strikeouts in 50 innings. He’s also coming off his third straight winning decision after allowing two runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts in six innings. Henderson should help Milwaukee take an early lead.

The Padres counter with Casey Mize (3.40 ERA), who was lit up during his first MLB start with San Diego. Against the Arizona Diamondbacks last week, Mize gave up eight runs on nine hits and three walks in just 3 1/3 innings of work. He should be able to bounce back from that start, but Milwaukee’s lineup doesn’t simply pound homers. San Diego will have to work to earn victories against Milwaukee.

On the season, Milwaukee won 5-of-7 on its last homestand to improve to 74-44, the best record in baseball. The Brewers rank fifth in runs (585), seventh in OPS (.735) and fourth in stolen bases (117). Milwaukee does a great job of putting pressure on opposing pitchers with consistent speed threats while manufacturing runs.

Plus, Jackson Chourio has four home runs over the past week, and Jake Bauers hit Sunday’s game-winning hit against Minnesota. Milwaukee can also win low-scoring games, too. 

Murphy has a deep bullpen, highlighted by Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. Milwaukee’s bullpen ERA of 3.49 ranks fourth in MLB and the club’s overall 3.47 staff ERA is second. 

San Diego is 9-5 over its last 14 games after winning three of four to start its current homestand. Sunday’s win came against Minnesota, 4-3, while it defeated Houston 7-2 on Saturday behind four homers. The Padres aren’t winning every game by just four runs, but over the course of the season, they just don’t profile well against Milwaukee.

The Padres rank 22nd in runs scored and 25th in OPS while their rotation’s 4.69 ERA is tied for the ninth-worst mark in MLB.  Like the Brewers on Monday due to their starting pitching matchup, consistent offense and strong bullpen.

Jim's Play: 957. Brewers

Take the St. Louis Cardinals to win on Monday night as the starting pitching matchup sets up well for St. Louis to win the series opener at Busch Stadium.

The Phillies roll with rookie Andrew Painter on Monday, who is just 1-8 with a 6.48 ERA entering the game. Painter has been better lately, allowing three runs combined over his last 10 innings of work, but he’s still someone the Cardinals should attack. Painter also exited his last start after just four innings due to hamstring tightness, so Philadelphia might be hesitant to let him go deep into this one.

St. Louis will counter with Hunter Dobbins, who has been much more reliable. He’s currently sporting a 2-2 record with a 3.60 ERA and was great in his last start, allowing two runs and four hits over 6 1/3 innings against the Yankees. If Dobbins can deliver another six solid innings of work, the Cardinals should be able to build an early lead for their bullpen.

Throw in the fact the Cardinals are playing better baseball of late and I like St. Louis to take this one. The Cardinals have won five of seven and opened up a series against the Phillies with a 7-4 win over Colorado on Sunday. Rookie JJ Wetherholt led the way with a two-run double in the eighth inning and Iván Herrera tacked on another RBI hit.

Wetherholt has been one of the more consistent hitters for St. Louis this year, slashing .274 with 16 home runs, 45 RBIs, 57 walks, 74 runs and 12 stolen bases. Along with hitters like Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and Herrera, the Cardinals have plenty of bats to put some pressure on a struggling young arm like Painter.

Speaking of struggling young arms, Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, who clubbed two home runs on Sunday and is tied for the MLB lead with 35. But the Phillies had to play 12 innings to pick up a 7-6 win in Toronto and they had lost three out of four entering Sunday’s game. Philadelphia also left 16 runners on base against the Blue Jays, so there are some questions with this lineup as well.

The matchup that jumps out to me is Dobbins vs. Painter. Dobbins has been better than Painter this season and Painter’s 6.48 ERA allows St. Louis to gain an early advantage. The Cardinals have also been playing solid baseball as of late and are coming home after a series victory, so I like them to take advantage.

Jim's Play: 954. Cardinals

I like the Orioles to take the opener on Monday night. Baltimore has the pitching matchup advantage and plenty of offensive upside to post a series win at Target Field.

Trevor Rogers goes for Baltimore and has posted a mediocre 7-7 record with a 4.20 ERA. However, he has been the Orioles’ more consistent starter this season, and he’s facing Dean Kremer, who is just 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in only 41 innings.

The homer issues against Kremer are magnified against Baltimore’s lineup, which came out swinging on Sunday. The Orioles had 10 runs and 15 hits in a 10-5 win over the Texas Rangers. Pete Alonso was a big time force at the plate, going deep twice and driving in four runs. Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser also homered. Coby Mayo had three hits, while Jackson Holliday and Leody Taveras had two apiece.

The Orioles are no slouch when it comes to hitting home runs themselves. Baltimore has blasted 138 homers this season and Kremer just gives the Orioles’ bats a clear path to success. Look for Rogers to limit the damage Monday and for Baltimore to capitalize against Kremer and the Twins bullpen.

Minnesota will also be without Byron Buxton, who remains on the injured list. The center fielder is tied for the team lead with 25 homers, so his absence is another reason why I like Baltimore on Monday.

Both teams enter play Monday having lost two straight games, though Minnesota dropped its recent pair by identical 4-3 scores against Milwaukee. Baltimore will have more confidence coming in after avoiding a series sweep against Texas.

This game isn’t as lopsided as the lines make it seem, hence why Baltimore is just a slight favorite. But I do like the starting pitching matchup here and Baltimore should be able to hit enough home runs to pull away from Minnesota if Rogers pitches efficiently.  With Kremer dealing with a 5.93 ERA and Baltimore’s offense coming off a 10-run outburst against Texas, I’ll take the Orioles Monday night.

Jim's Play: 961. Orioles