Jimmy Boyd

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Blue Jays +170

This is a price play.

Toronto sits at 76-79, Texas at 78-77.

Two games apart over 155 games, and the market is asking you to lay it like Texas is a playoff lock.

At +170 the implied probability on the Jays is 37%.

That's too low for teams this close.

The number is built entirely on Rangers ace Jacob deGrom, and I get it.

He's 11-9 with a 3.79 ERA and a 3.35 xERA, holding hitters to a .218 average and a .276 wOBA.

When he's on, nobody touches him.

Here's the problem with paying that premium: deGrom doesn't finish games.

He's gone 6 innings or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Toronto is going to see the Texas bullpen for 3 to 4 innings, and that's where plus-money dogs cash.

He's also not bulletproof.

On August 25 the White Sox got him for 8 earned runs in 3.2 innings with 5 walks.

That's the worst offense in baseball doing it.

One bad inning from him and this price looks silly.

Toronto's confirmed lineup still has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting second and Kazuma Okamoto in the cleanup spot.

The injuries thinned the outfield, but the middle of this order can put a crooked number up in one swing.

Blue Jays starter Spencer Arrighetti brings a 4.90 ERA, so I'm not pretending he outduels anyone.

He doesn't have to.

He needs to keep it close through five and let the bullpen game decide it.

I like the Blue Jays

3* HEAVY HITTER on Mystics +6½

The market is paying full price for Indiana's hot streak, and that's exactly where the value on Washington comes from.

Let's not dodge the obvious.

The Fever are 8-2 in their last 10 with a 121.1 offensive rating and 44% shooting from three.

That's real, and it's why this line sits at 6.5.

But 44% from deep over 10 games is peak shooting, not a baseline.

When you're getting points against a team priced at its absolute ceiling, the number is doing the work for you.

Washington isn't some punching bag.

Over their last 10, the Mystics are 6-4 with a 110.6 offensive rating, 49% from the floor, and a +4.8 net rating.

That's a functional, efficient team.

The scoring is balanced too.

Shakira Austin at 16.9 a game, Sonia Citron at 16.8, and Kiki Iriafen at 15.4.

Three legitimate options means Indiana can't scheme one player out of this game.

The situational edges all lean Washington.

The Mystics come in on 3 days of rest against 2 for the Fever.

Washington's injury report is completely clean.

Indiana's Caitlin Clark is day-to-day again with the lingering back issue that has kept her on the report all season.

The real risk is Washington's 19% turnover rate feeding Indiana's transition game.

Fair concern.

But that's a live-ball issue that swings margin by a possession or two, and 6.5 gives me two possessions of cushion in a game where both offenses can score.

Healthy, rested, efficient, and getting 6.5 from a team priced at its peak.

That's a price I'll take.

I like the Mystics

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Marlins +135

This price is built on recency, and recency is where the value hides.

Let's start with the obvious knock.

Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has been bad lately, giving up 19 earned runs over 21.1 innings across his last four starts.

That's real, and it's why Miami is +135 instead of something shorter.

But the full-season picture tells a different story.

Alcantara sits at a 3.85 xERA with a .252 xBA and .305 xwOBA over 861 plate appearances.

Those are quality numbers over a big body of work.

Four rough starts don't erase a season of contact suppression.

Now flip it to the other dugout.

Padres starter Walker Buehler carries a 4.58 ERA and a 4.27 xERA, with opponents hitting .260 with a .422 slug against him this season.

His expected numbers are better than his surface ERA, sure.

They're still clearly worse than Alcantara's.

Buehler also can't get deep into games.

He went 2.1 innings against Washington on September 9 and 4.2 at Colorado on September 15.

That means the San Diego bullpen gets exposed by the fifth inning, and this Padres lineup is banged up with Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Luis Rengifo, and Ramon Laureano all on the IL.

San Diego's 86-69 record earns them favorite status at Petco.

Fine.

But the pitching matchup, judged on the full season instead of the last three weeks, leans Miami.

At +135 you're getting paid on a game where your starter has the better underlying profile.

That's a price worth taking.

I like the Marlins

5* NO BRAINER on Nationals +120

These two teams are heading in opposite directions and the price hasn't caught up.

Washington has won 6 of its last 7, including Saturday's 8-5 win in 11 innings right here at Busch.

St.

Louis has dropped 4 straight.

The Nationals have taken the first two of this series and go for the sweep Sunday afternoon.

The obvious knock is the pitching matchup, and I'm not going to pretend it isn't real.

Nationals starter Jake Irvin sits at a 5.51 ERA with a 5.37 xERA, so the bad surface numbers are backed by the underlying stuff.

Cardinals starter Quinn Mathews checks in at 3.62 with a 3.45 xERA.

But dig into Irvin's recent starts and the story softens.

He's allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in three straight outings, holding Atlanta to 2 over 4 and Colorado to 1 over 4.1.

He's keeping his team in games even when the innings are short.

Mathews carries blowup risk of his own.

On August 22 against Philadelphia he got tagged for 7 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 innings.

His two clean starts since came against the Giants, twice.

This Washington lineup with James Wood and CJ Abrams is a tougher test than that.

At +120 I don't need the Nationals to be the better team on paper.

I need them to win one baseball game between two clubs separated by 2 games in the standings, 75-80 against 73-82.

The hot team at plus money against a fading club that's lost 4 in a row is the side.

I like the Nationals

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Broncos -3

Both teams have played exactly one game this season, so this line is built almost entirely on two Week 1 scores.

Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 at home.

Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City.

The market saw those results and now offers Broncos -3 at +100.

That's the overreaction I want to bet against.

Look at the opponents.

The Jaguars handled the Browns, one of the softest openers on the schedule.

Denver went to Arrowhead against the Chiefs.

Those are not comparable tests.

Denver's loss was mostly self-inflicted.

Broncos QB Bo Nix threw an opening-drive interception, lost a fumble in the third quarter, and averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt.

You spot the Chiefs short fields on the road and the score gets ugly.

That's a correctable game, not a talent problem.

The defense held up fine.

Broncos DE Zach Allen posted multiple sacks for the first time since 2024, and LB Alex Singleton was the game's leading tackler.

Over their final seven games last season, the Broncos went 5-2 and allowed 19 points a game.

That unit gets Trevor Lawrence at altitude in the home opener.

Denver also has a score to settle.

Jacksonville walked into Denver last December and won 34-20.

This roster remembers that.

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. was limited in practice all week with a shoulder issue after playing just eight snaps beyond the first quarter of Week 1.

Denver's absences are minor by comparison.

Getting the key number of 3 with no juice attached is the value here.

I like the Broncos

5* NO BRAINER on Panthers -2½

Atlanta doesn't know who's playing quarterback Sunday, and that's the whole game.

Tua Tagovailoa has missed back-to-back practices with an oblique injury and is likely out again.

Michael Penix is working back from a knee issue and only shared first-team reps Wednesday.

If neither goes, it's Cooper Rush.

Rush completed just 12 of 22 for 143 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions in last week's 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh, taking 4 sacks along the way.

Kevin Stefanski isn't offering clarity either: "We're working through it.

I'm not ruling anyone out." That uncertainty is what flipped this line from Falcons -1.5 to Panthers -2.5.

I still don't think it moved far enough.

The protection is banged up too.

Right guard Chris Lindstrom is in the concussion protocol and tackle Jawaan Taylor is questionable.

Whoever starts at quarterback for Atlanta may spend the afternoon under pressure.

Carolina's opener was ugly on the scoreboard, a 59-37 loss to Chicago, but the offense held up its end.

Bryce Young threw 3 touchdowns and ran one in.

Jalen Coker went for 138 yards and 2 scores.

This offense can put up points, and the defense won't see anything close to that Bears attack from a Falcons offense that managed 13 last week.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so I'm not leaning on form.

I'm leaning on the matchup.

Carolina has won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Atlanta, and the Panthers are the only side here with a settled quarterback.

I like the Panthers

1* Free Pick on Raiders +7

The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.

Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.

That's a price I'll take.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.

And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.

The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.

Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.

That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.

Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.

Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.

If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.

On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He controls tempo and keeps this game short.

The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.

Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.

But I don't need Cousins to win the game.

I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.

Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.

That's line value.

I like the Raiders