Jimmy Boyd

5* NO BRAINER on Cavs -130

The Cavs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games.

That's the foundation here, and the market is barely charging for it at -130.

Cleveland is the better team on paper over the last 10 games.

The Cavs are putting up 121.8 PPG with a 120 offensive rating and a 2.8 net rating.

The Knicks are at 111.2 PPG, 119.7 offensive rating, 2.5 net.

The pace gap matters.

Cleveland plays at 101.5, New York at 92.65.

At home, with the crowd and the whistle, the Cavs can push tempo and get into their actions.

New York is the league's slowest team trying to drag this into the mud.

The opposition case is real.

New York is 9-0 SU in its last 9 and 4-1 SU in the last 5 against Cleveland.

Donovan Mitchell looked hobbled in Game 2.

Those are legitimate concerns and I'm not waving them off.

Here's why I'm still on Cleveland.

Down 0-2 going home, this is a desperate team that already proved it can climb out of a 2-0 hole.

They did it against Detroit in the previous round.

The 9-0 Knicks streak ends when it ends, and the spot to fade it is a Game 3 with the season on the line at Rocket Arena.

Josh Hart dropped 26 on 5-of-11 from three in Game 2.

His season average is 12.

That's the regression candidate, not Mitchell.

I like the Cavs

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Sky +120

The Lynx come in without Napheesa Collier, Dorka Juhasz, Emma Cechova, and Anastasiia Kosu.

That's four frontcourt bodies, including a 22.9 PPG superstar.

The opposition will point to Minnesota's eFG% of 57% and 36% from deep, and yes, those numbers look great on paper.

They were also built with a frontcourt that isn't walking through the door tonight.

That leaves Natasha Howard and Nia Coffey to handle the paint against Kamilla Cardoso.

Cardoso is averaging 14.4 PPG and just dropped 24 and 11 on Dallas.

She has a clear physical edge in this matchup.

The strongest case against Chicago is Rickea Jackson's season-ending knee injury.

She was averaging 18 PPG on 29.5 minutes and her loss is real.

But Chicago already absorbed that loss and beat Minnesota 86-79 on the road on May 17, holding the Lynx to a season low in points.

They won that game without Jackson at full tilt and without home court.

Chicago's defensive rating sits at 102.5 over the last 10, slightly better than Minnesota's 103.2.

The Sky also take care of the ball with a 14% turnover rate compared to 19% for the Lynx.

That's a meaningful gap when Minnesota is leaning on rookie Olivia Miles to run the offense against veterans Skylar Diggins and Natasha Cloud.

Azura Stevens is also expected back, adding frontcourt insurance behind Cardoso.

At +120 in a rematch the Sky already won, the price is wrong.

I like the Sky

1* Free Pick on Portland Fire +5½

Toronto's frontcourt is gutted.

Isabelle Harrison (hand), Temi Fagbenle (shoulder), and Nyara Sabally (neck) are all out or trending that way.

That leaves Sandy Brondello starting a three-guard look with Laura Juskaite playing out of position.

Against a Portland team starting Luisa Geiselsoder and Emily Engstler, the size mismatch matters.

The Tempo are also playing on 2 days rest after a road trip that ended in a 28-point blowout loss.

Portland gets 3 days off coming in.

Small edge, but in May it shows up.

The opposition case is real.

Portland's defensive rating sits at 115.3 over the last 10 with a -11.4 net rating, and the Fire are 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Toronto is 4-1 ATS in that same span.

I'm not ignoring that.

But those numbers were built with Sabally in the rotation and a healthier rotation behind Brittney Sykes (31.4 mpg) and Marina Mabrey (26.3 mpg).

Strip out the frontcourt and the Tempo's 108.5 offensive rating leans even harder on a backcourt that just gave up 55% shooting to Minnesota two nights ago.

Portland also has functional scoring.

Bridget Carleton (16.8 PPG) and Carla Leite (15 PPG) are both healthy and active.

Even with Karlie Samuelson and Teja Oblak banged up, the Fire have enough to keep this within a possession or two late.

5.5 is a generous number for a team catching points against four frontcourt absences.

I'll take the points.

I like the Portland Fire

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Rockies/Diamondbacks: over 9

Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has been the easiest at-bat in baseball this year.

He's running a 7.03 ERA with a .353 batting average against over 237 plate appearances, and his xERA of 6.00 says the regression fairy isn't coming to save him.

The Diamondbacks already saw him six days ago.

On May 17 they tagged Lorenzen for 6 earned runs and 9 hits in 4.2 innings.

Same lineup, same hitter's park, same arm.

That's a green light.

Arizona's Zac Gallen looks fine on the surface at 4.78, but the underlying profile is uglier.

His xERA sits at 5.17 and opponents are slugging an expected .473 against him.

Four of his last five starts have produced 4+ earned runs.

The name is bigger than the stuff right now.

Chase Field with the roof open in 98-degree heat plays as a launching pad, and that's the operating environment today.

The opposition case is the Rockies lineup.

Doyle, Beck, Bryant, and Moniak are all on the IL, and yesterday's 3-2 final between these clubs is fresh.

Fair points.

But Colorado still put up enough on Gallen-quality arms this month, and you're not betting the Rockies offense to be elite, just to scratch across 4 or 5 against a pitcher whose xSLG against is .473.

Combine that with whatever Arizona does to Lorenzen and you clear 9 easily.

I'll pay the -115.

Two starters with xERAs of 6.00 and 5.17 in a hot Chase Field is an Over spot.

I like the Over

3* HEAVY HITTER on Yankees -112

The Rays are the better team on paper at 34-15, but -112 in the Bronx with these two arms going is too cheap.

Start with the pitching matchup.

Rays righty Drew Rasmussen carries a 3.19 ERA but a 3.40 xERA and a .250 xBA, meaning the surface numbers slightly overstate his stuff.

Yankees lefty Ryan Weathers sits at a 3.58 ERA with a 4.12 xERA.

The opposition will tell you Weathers is the regression candidate, and they're not wrong on the xERA gap.

But look at the actual contact data: Weathers is allowing a .232 BA and .298 wOBA, Rasmussen .213 and .268.

The real-world gap between these guys is much smaller than the xERA spread suggests.

Weathers has also shown a high ceiling against quality lineups.

He punched out 9 Orioles over 6.1 innings on May 11 and went 7.1 scoreless against Kansas City on April 19.

He can lock in for stretches.

Rasmussen's swing-and-miss is sliding the other way.

Two strikeouts in 5.1 innings against Miami in his last start, and he's gone five straight without a decision.

The Rays bullpen has had to cover early, which matters in the back half of this game.

Yes, the Rays have owned this matchup head-to-head and the Yankees lineup is short Stanton and Dominguez.

Acknowledged.

But baseball isn't played on H2H ledgers, and a -112 home dog price against the league's best team is a value spot.

I'm picking the price, not the team.

I like the #Yankees

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Mariners/Royals: under 9

Kansas City's offense has flatlined.

They've scored 9 total runs over their last 6 games and have been shut out four times already this season, including a 2-0 loss to Seattle yesterday.

That's not a slump, that's a unit that can't string at-bats together.

Seattle isn't much better right now.

Cal Raleigh and Brendan Donovan are both on the 10-day IL, so the middle of this order is leaning on Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena to do the heavy lifting against a 25-27 team that's been a coin flip on run production all year.

Mariners starter George Kirby is the anchor here.

His 3.45 ERA is backed by a 3.21 xERA and a .233 xBA against, which tells you the underlying stuff is still elite.

His last start against San Diego (6 ER in 5.2 IP) was an outlier, not a trend.

Over the four starts before that he allowed 2 ER or fewer three times.

The opposition case is real on Royals starter Stephen Kolek.

His .271 xBA against versus a .203 actual, and a .317 xwOBA versus .278 wOBA, say regression is coming.

I get it.

But Kolek just went 6.1 shutout innings against the Cardinals on May 17, and the Seattle lineup without Raleigh isn't the offense that breaks his luck open today.

Weather cooperates too. 71 degrees with a 7 MPH wind out of the NNW at Kauffman keeps the ball in the yard in a spacious park.

I like the Under

3* HEAVY HITTER on Astros/Cubs: under 7½

The Astros are rolling into Wrigley with a lineup that barely resembles a big-league offense.

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yainer Diaz, Joey Loperfido, and Taylor Trammell are all on the 10-Day IL.

That leaves Jeremy Pena and Christian Walker to carry an order stacked with Brice Matthews, Nick Allen, and Cam Smith hitting 6-7-8.

Houston is 22-31 for a reason.

Astros starter Peter Lambert sits at a 3.57 ERA with a 3.42 xERA and has held opponents to a .189 batting average across 144 plate appearances.

He's gone six-plus innings in three of his last five starts.

Against this Cubs lineup that's been shut out seven times already this season, that profile plays.

Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga carries a 3.38 ERA and 3.34 xERA.

The opposition case here is real: Imanaga got shelled for 8 ER in 4.1 innings against Milwaukee last week.

Fair concern.

But in the four starts before that, he allowed 7 earned runs total across 25.1 innings.

The Brewers game was the outlier, not the trend, and Houston's depleted righty-heavy lineup is exactly the matchup to get him right.

Weather seals it. 65 degrees, light rain, 3 MPH wind from the north blowing straight in at Wrigley.

Power gets killed in this setup.

The trends back the read.

The Under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5, 7-0 in their last 7 road games, and 7-1 in their last 8 road trips to Wrigley. 4-1 in the Cubs' last 5 as well.

I like the Under

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Erik Van Rooyen +130

Erik Van Rooyen sits T12 at -14 entering the final round of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, one stroke ahead of Titch Moore at -13.

He's the leader.

He's the plus-money side.

That's where the value lives.

The opposition case is real.

Moore has the better long-term profile at +0.209 SG: Total versus Van Rooyen's -0.490, and Moore has gained 3.04 strokes putting this week while Van Rooyen has lost 0.19 on the greens.

The market sees that gap and assumes regression.

I see a one-shot lead that the price isn't respecting.

Van Rooyen has been the better ball-striker by a wide margin through 54 holes.

He's gained 6.99 strokes tee-to-green compared to Moore's 2.77.

That's not luck.

That's three rounds of separation in the part of the game that travels best to a final round.

The short game is the kicker.

Van Rooyen is gaining 3.72 SG: ARG this week.

Moore is losing 1.08 around the greens.

If Sunday brings the forecasted wind and storms, scrambling matters more, not less.

The exact spot favors the guy already holding the lead.

Moore's hot putter is the risk.

Putting variance is also the most likely thing to cool off on a Sunday with pressure and changing conditions.

Van Rooyen's tee-to-green edge is the stickier number.

He's the leader, he's the better ball-striker this week, and he's plus money in a head-to-head.

That's the bet.

I like Erik Van Rooyen

5* NO BRAINER on Brooks Koepka -110

Both players sit T8 at -15 entering Sunday at TPC Craig Ranch, but the paths to that number tell two very different stories.

Koepka has been the better ball-striker where it matters most.

His Live SG: Approach this week is +3.13.

Mitchell's is -0.99.

On a soft 7,385-yard layout where players can fire at flags, the guy controlling his irons has the edge.

The opposition will point to Mitchell's superior Live SG: Off-the-Tee (4.38 vs 0.51) and the fact that he's the higher-ranked player by DataGolf (60 vs 75).

Fair points.

But driving distance off the tee doesn't close tournaments when your approach play is the worst part of your game.

Koepka's iron edge is the bigger lever on a Sunday with pin pressure.

Koepka has also solved his one chronic weakness this week.

His season-long SG: Putt is -0.167, but he's gained 1.60 on the greens through three rounds and said in his post-round Thursday that the putter finally felt right after studio work.

When Koepka is rolling it even average, the rest of his game plays up.

DataGolf's model agrees.

It gives Koepka the better win probability (2.26% vs 1.62%) and the better top-10 number (19.88% vs 17.03%).

The market has these two priced as a coin flip at -110.

The numbers say Koepka is the side.

Final-round, big-stage golf is also Koepka's home turf.

Five majors says enough.

I like Brooks Koepka

3* HEAVY HITTER on Rockies/Diamondbacks: over 9

Rockies starter Jose Quintana takes the mound with a 4.08 ERA but a 4.48 xERA, and the matchup history is ugly.

He carries a career 6.85 ERA in nine starts against Arizona, and his recent form backs that up.

He's failed to complete six innings in four of his last five outings.

Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is the other side of this coin.

His 5.19 ERA is bad enough on its own.

His .498 xSLG and .343 xwOBA say he's been lucky to keep it that low.

Hitters are squaring him up, and the Rockies have his number historically with a career 8.80 ERA against them.

Neither guy misses bats.

Nelson had 3 strikeouts in 7 innings his last time out.

Quintana has 4 or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts.

That means balls in play, and a lot of them, inside a hitter-friendly dome.

The opposition case leans on recent Under trends: both teams 4-1 to the Under in their last 5, and the Under hitting in 6 of Arizona's last 7 against Colorado.

I get it, but those trends were built against different pitchers in different spots.

The matchup in front of us is two arms with xERAs above 4.40 and direct career history of getting hit by today's opponent.

Trend data doesn't override pitcher-batter history this specific.

The total dropped from 9.5 to 9, and -115 is a fair price for the value here.

I like the Over

5* NO BRAINER on Rays +130

Tampa Bay is 34-15.

The Yankees are 30-22.

The better team is the dog at +130, and that's where I start.

The pitching matchup tilts to the Rays once you look past surface ERA.

Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen carries a 3.19 ERA backed by a 3.37 xERA and a .293 xwOBA against.

Yankees lefty Ryan Weathers has a 3.58 ERA but a 4.10 xERA and .321 xwOBA against.

Weathers is a regression candidate, and his last start was 5.1 innings and 5 earned runs against Toronto.

Rasmussen has been steady.

Five straight starts of 5 innings or more, never more than 3 earned runs allowed.

That's a profile you can trust on the road in a tight game.

The Rays are also 5-0 SU in their last 5, 4-1 in their last 5 on the road, and 4-1 in their last 5 head-to-head against the Yankees.

That's not a small sample I'm cherry-picking.

That's the current state of this matchup.

The opposition case is real.

Tampa has lost Lux, Fraley, DeLuca, and Williamson, which pushes Ryan Vilade and Chandler Simpson up the order.

The Yankees are also 11-4 SU at home in their last 15.

I get it.

But the lineup that's currently in the box scores has gone 5-0, and the pitching edge plus the price covers the depth questions.

Cold weather and rain hurt both offenses, not just the Rays.

Getting the better team at plus money is the bet.

I like the Rays