Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Suns -3½

The Phoenix Suns are in a prime position to clinch the final playoff spot in the West this Friday night.
They have been a rock at the Mortgage Matchup Center lately and bring a top-six scoring defense into this elimination game.

The Golden State Warriors are playing on very thin ice after a grueling win over the Clippers on Wednesday.
This is their second win-or-go-home game in 48 hours and the fatigue should be a major factor in the second half.

The absence of Jimmy Butler is the biggest hurdle for the Warriors in this matchup.
Without Butler’s elite wing defense, Golden State has no answer for Devin Booker, who is averaging over 26 points per game.

Phoenix also has a significant edge in the coaching and depth department right now.
Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks provide a dual scoring threat that the Warriors' perimeter defense has struggled to contain all season.

The injury report favors the Suns as well, with the Warriors monitoring Kristaps Porzingis’ ankle after he was seen limping post-game on Wednesday.
If Porzingis is limited or out, Golden State loses its only real rim protection against a Suns team that loves to attack the paint.

Phoenix finished the regular season with a defensive rating that ranks in the top ten of the league.
They allow just 111.1 points per contest and do a great job of forcing opponents into tough, contested mid-range jumpers.

Golden State relies far too heavily on Stephen Curry to bail them out of possessions.
Curry is seeing double teams on almost every touch, and the Warriors' secondary playmakers have been turnover-prone under pressure.

The Suns rank much higher in shooting efficiency and free throw rate at home.
They should be able to get to the line early and often against a tired Warriors frontcourt.

Expect the Suns to use their rest advantage to pull away in the fourth quarter.
The depth and defensive discipline of this Phoenix squad will be the difference in securing that eighth seed.

Bet Suns -3.5.

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5* NO BRAINER of the Week on White Sox/A's: under 9½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Magic +160

Orlando is the play here as a home underdog in this winner-take-all scenario.
The Magic are coming off a road loss to Philly on Wednesday, but they are a different animal at the Kia Center.

This 45-win team went 25-15 on their home floor during the regular season.
Getting +160 on a team with a top-10 defensive rating in their own building is massive value.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are both healthy and ready to lead the charge.
Wagner was on a minutes limit Wednesday, but he should be fully unleashed with the season on the line Friday night.

The Magic also have Desmond Bane to provide the spacing and veteran scoring they need in high-pressure moments.
They match up perfectly against a Charlotte team that lives and dies by the three-pointer.

The Hornets are coming in hot, but they are also prone to major mistakes.
Charlotte ranks in the bottom third of the league in turnovers, and Jalen Suggs will feast on those loose handles.

The Hornets needed overtime to get past Miami on Tuesday.
Now they have to bring that high-octane style on the road against one of the most physical defenses in the Eastern Conference.

Orlando’s interior length with Wendell Carter Jr. and Banchero will make life difficult for Moussa Diabaté and the Hornets' frontcourt.
The Magic are more disciplined and better suited for the grind of an elimination game.

Don’t let the regular-season head-to-head record fool you.
The postseason is about defense and home-court advantage, and Orlando has the edge in both categories.

Bet Magic ML (+160).

5* NO BRAINER on Reds +126

The Reds are the wrong underdog in this Saturday afternoon matchup in Minnesota.

The betting market is pricing this game based on name recognition rather than actual pitching efficiency.

Cincinnati’s starter is showing elite underlying metrics despite having a surface ERA that looks mediocre through the first few weeks of the season.

His xFIP is sitting well under his actual ERA, which means he is due for a major breakout performance as his luck evens out.

He is missing bats at a high rate and should have no problem navigating a Twins lineup that struggles with high-velocity righties.

Minnesota’s starter is a pitch-to-contact guy who has been getting away with a lot of fly balls lately.

His BABIP is unsustainably low, and the Reds’ power-hitting lineup is perfectly built to exploit a pitcher who lives in the strike zone without elite stuff.

The Twins’ bullpen is also in a bad spot after a high-leverage grind during Friday's game.

Their primary setup man and closer have both worked heavy innings recently and will likely be unavailable or ineffective today.

The Reds have a significant rest advantage in the late innings with their top arms ready to go.

Cincinnati ranks in the top tier of the league in hard-hit rate and they are currently seeing the ball very well against right-handed pitching.

The Twins are missing a key middle-of-the-order bat due to a lingering quad issue, which takes a lot of the teeth out of their offense.

In a game where the starting pitching is essentially a wash, you have to take the team getting the plus-money price.

The math says the Reds win this game nearly half the time, but the books are giving us a generous +126.

Bet Reds ML (+126).