Jim Feist

A case can easily be made for covering the spread here because Oklahoma has the type of total you want to see from a team playing the neutral floor. Most markets have Texas A&M -2.5, which is extremely short. At this number you are essentially asking whether Oklahoma can keep it to a one-possession game. That is very much in play considering how they have played of late.

If we’re looking for the best reason to like Oklahoma here, it would have to be momentum. Oklahoma just defeated South Carolina 86-74 on Wednesday for the fifth consecutive victory and that game came after rallying from a 13-point halftime deficit. Scoring 24 points were Nijel Pack, while Derrion Reid and Tae Davis had 20 and 18 points, respectively. Oklahoma did not shoot extremely well from the floor against the Gamecocks, but that run at the end of regulation shows it can manufacture points in crunch time.

Desperation could also play a factor here too. This game actually means more for the Sooners than Texas A&M does from a postseason standpoint. Sometimes that matters in conference tournament games when one team is fighting for something and the other does not have much to lose. When that’s the case, that added desperation often helps the underdog keep this thing inside the number.

The number itself also implies this game is closer than Texas A&M’s 21-10 record and Oklahoma’s 18-14 record would indicate. The market opened this around Aggies -2.5 to -3, which tells you Oklahoma is getting plenty of respect for its recent surge and high-end offensive potential. Action Network also outlines Oklahoma has the 20th-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country while Texas A&M checks in at just 43rd, further underscoring this offense’s ability to put up points when needed.

Oklahoma +2.5 is a great number because the Sooners are rolling, playing with confidence, and producing strong guard play at the right time of the season. In a neutral floor SEC tournament game with such a small spread, Oklahoma has as good of a chance as any to stay right there at game’s end.

Jim's Play:  751. Oklahoma  

Grand Canyon has decent juice to lay here simply because we’re pretty much expecting a toss-up game here. Nevada is not being tasked with putting this game away. The line opened around Grand Canyon -2.5 and currently sits at -3.5.  Moving the game to a neutral floor is probably the biggest reason to jump on Grand Canyon right now. Nevada did defeat GCU 66-60 in overtime back on Jan. 28 at Reno. However, now you’re taking away Nevada’s home-court advantage. If we’re talking about a rematch that came down to one possession after 40 minutes, removing one team’s advantage makes Grand Canyon a much more appealing play.

History between these teams plays a role too. As mentioned before, this game went to OT last time these two played, which means Grand Canyon can at least hang with Nevada even if things aren’t clicking offensively for them. When games are this close, usually laying a short number with the team getting the better venue is the better play.

The only thing that gives me pause here is injury news, as Wilhelm Breidenbach will be out for Grand Canyon. However, the market has already factored that known injury into keeping GCU as favorites, so I think bettors view the Lopes as the slight favorite in this game regardless.

Overall, Grand Canyon’s strongest argument for covering this spot is simple; this game was fairly even when it was in Reno and now moves to a neutral floor while the spread is just one basket. That screams “Lopes can win.” 

Jim's Play:  764. Grand Canyon (MTN West Tourney Game of the Year)

NBA

03/12/2026  (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)

Take: Atlanta Hawks -15 (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)

Atlanta (34–31) has been strong at home and is facing a Brooklyn team that’s 17–48 with one of the league’s worst point differentials. The Hawks’ offense should overwhelm a Nets defense that has collapsed over the last month.

Jim's Play: Atlanta Hawks -15 (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)

I look to the NBA Southeast division for this mismatchp on Thursday as the division's top team, the Orlando Magic, takes on the worst team, the Washington Wizards. 

Orlando has the best reason to cover because this feels like a classic letdown spot against an overmatched opponent. The Magic are playing like a legitimate playoff team that is hot coming off a five-game winning streak, and the Wizards are playing like a lottery team that stinks coming off nine consecutive losses. Washington lost 150-129 to Miami on Tuesday. Orlando beat Cleveland 128-122 on Wednesday. That sort of difference in form explains why the public betting market has pushed Orlando into such heavy-favorite territory.

Timing of game plays into Orlando as well. Washington is coming in at the end of a Florida trip, fresher legs and all, after giving up 150 points against Miami the previous night. Orlando, meanwhile, gets to stay at home and play at Kia Center on Thursday. When one team can’t stop you and the other team wants the ball in its own hands on its home floor, it usually makes it easier for the favorite to create distance.

Washington giving up so many points also helps Orlando’s case. The Wizards’ recent performances indicate a team that has had major difficulties stopping opponents, and that could spell trouble against an Orlando team that has enjoyed excellent offensive balance from Desmond Bane, Paolo Banchero and Tristan da Silva during this winning streak. Bane had 35 points against Cleveland. Banchero posted 25 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. Da Silva added 23 points. Given that kind of scoring balance, Orlando should be able to cover a big number if Washington struggles defensively like it has been.

Lastly, injuries favor Orlando despite the Magic not being at full health. Per the official NBA injury report, Anthony Black was ruled out for Orlando on Wednesday night. Public game previews for this matchup have listed Washington with multiple players dealing with injury concerns heading into this one including Anthony Davis out, Kyshawn George out and Bub Carrington questionable. Orlando is without Franz Wagner and his ankle injury as well, but the market still opened the Magic up at around -15. If injuries were a reason to fade Orlando right now, the betting line would be much higher than that.

Washington is a big spread dog, so there is always backdoor risk, but the most straightforward argument is that the Wizards have shown little ability to compete over their last several games, while Orlando has played well enough to cover this number.

Jim's Play: 516. Magic -15