Jim Feist

Atlanta has way too much going for them to bet against in this NL East Game of the Month. They just beat Philadelphia 5-3 on Friday, they’re rolling having won 9 of their last 10 overall, they’re 19-8 while Philadelphia has plummeted to 8-18 and is 0-10 in their last 10, and Atlanta has won all four matchups against Philadelphia this season. This Game of the Month line not only has a form edge with Atlanta, it has a matchup edge as well.

One reason I really like Atlanta here is that they just seem to find ways to win, even if things are not going ideally for them. Michael Harris II was scratched from the Braves starting lineup Friday due to a strained quad. He still came off the bench and hit the biggest pitch of the game, a go-ahead two-run double. That’s a big-time difference between these two teams mentally as well as talent-wise. Atlanta knows how to win and different players are stepping up to contribute at different times. Philadelphia just continues to feel themselves coming up small when they need to succeed most.

The matchup is not as strong for Atlanta on Saturday since Zack Wheeler is scheduled for the Phillies while Bryce Elder gets the nod for Atlanta, but the Braves still have a strong path to victory here. The current MLB probable pitchers list has Elder coming in at 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 29 strikeouts on the year. That doesn’t sound like a number you can feed to a backend Braves rookie who is expected to lose this matchup. If Elder pitches to competency again and helps Atlanta stick around this game, they’ll be in position to win with their current form and deeper confidence.

Atlanta also possesses a recent-series trend against this very opponent. During the last series these two played, which was just last weekend, Atlanta swept Philadelphia in three games, outscoring them 16-3 for the series. That’s encouraging for Atlanta’s chances because it shows they have already solved this Phillies lineup once already and won in multiple ways.

Lineup Atlanta is rolling, Philadelphia is spiraling, they’ve already beaten this opponent four out of four this season, and they’ve been winning by playing with form and grit. As far as Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game of the Month angles go, the Braves are the play because they have Atlanta.

Jim's Play: 910. Braves (NL East Game of the Month)

Seattle might be worth backing to win on Saturday given that the Mariners seemingly have the advantage in starting pitching matchups. Bryan Woo has been officially named as Seattle’s starter while Matthew Liberatore will toe the rubber for St. Louis. Previews have circulated that trust Woo more in this instance and one same-day projection article I saw noted he came off his biggest outing of the year looking more like his 2025 self when he went 15-7 while leading Seattle on a deep October run. Giving the Mariners that advantage early on the road should provide them control of the game.

Speaking of control games, Seattle also received some momentum after Friday night’s 3-2 victory in game 1. Seattle ended their eight-game road losing streak on Friday getting George Kirby to rebound from a poor season debut and sparking some offense via Josh Naylor’s go-ahead homer. Sometimes those tight wins can end skids because they allow a team to loosen up. Seattle headed into Saturday feeling more confident about the park.

One final reason to trust Seattle is that they just defeated St. Louis in a game that stayed relatively close and had the Cardinals tying it up in the middle innings. If Seattle can answer like it did on Friday, then they once again have every opportunity to win this game because of its bullpen. That’s important because it showed the Mariners did not need to smash this Cardinals team to win a game. Get six solid innings from Woo and Seattle can make this about pitching and timely hitting again.

I do still like Seattle due to their better projected starter, momentum from already winning Game 1, and a bullpen that just pitched a close game in St. Louis. Those reasons make the Mariners a decent play to win on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 925. Mariners

I think the Angels can win this game for one simple reason: Walbert Urena is starting for Los Angeles. That gives the Angels a new look from Friday and adds live-arms value as underdogs.

As of this writing, MLB’s probable pitchers page for Saturday shows Urena going for the Angels at Kansas City. So you’re making your money on trusting him to keep things tighter than they were in Game 1.

Also in their favor is the idea that this game feels like a legitimate bounce-back opportunity. The Angels were “buried” by a five-run fourth inning from Kansas City on Friday, but Los Angeles did battle back with three runs of their own in the seventh. They had the bases loaded before Daniel Lynch IV worked out of that jam, too.

Knowing that helps sell the underdog angle because the final score doesn’t tell the whole story of Friday’s game. The Angels were one hit away from completely flipping it on Kansas City, which bodes well for a road dog entering Game 2.

Plus, even if Urena isn’t great the Angels still have enough bats in that lineup to support him if he keeps it close. Trout is obviously in the middle of the order, and Jorge Soler is back off suspension to add another feared bat. Soler had five homers and 18 RBIs through his first 18 games of the year. Kansas City’s defense can’t leave runners on base like they did against the Angels in Game 1.

The Angels’ best-case scenario is honestly not too complicated. Urena simply needs to give them five innings that are a little less wild than what they received from Yusei Kikuchi on Friday, his lineup needs to cash in on a couple of those opportunities they left on base in Game 1, and — if it stays close enough — Los Angeles steals one late.

Friday’s loss came down to one inning that went very poorly for the Angels. It wasn’t as if Kansas City just rolled over them. Los Angeles is live to cash this matchup Saturday.

Jim's Play: 921. Angels

The under on total points makes sense in large part because this series has already proven to be defensively oriented and grind-heavy in a half-court sense. Game 1 did end with a final score of 112-101, but Game 2 saw both offenses struggle at times compared to that pace, with the teams tied 46-46 at halftime before Detroit opened up steam with a monster third quarter. Orlando’s Game 3 preview explained that games have been more physical and defense-oriented than people realize, while Detroit-centric game preview content mentioned the Pistons would look to “muddy the game” with toughness on transition defense and energy plays instead of trying to play fast and open up a free-flowing offensive game.

The total itself is also sitting in a range that hasn’t really gone down despite modest scoring projections. Considering both teams in this playoff series like to play defense and half-court possessions are likely to matter more and more as the series goes on, that number isn’t particularly low if we can assume some level of controlled pace.

Furthermore, a major reason to like the under is Orlando’s offensive inconsistency. Magic-centric coverage mentioned how overwhelmed Orlando looked early in the second half due to adjustments by Detroit, while Detroit coverage highlighted how the Pistons’ defensive rotations and swarming physicality led to their success. If those elements hold true heading into Game 3, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Orlando fail to create clean looks again for extended periods of time, which would help an under.

Detroit can and probably will keep things under too, as the Pistons actually play their best basketball by defending, rebounding, and capitalizing on selective opportunities rather than trying to run and gun. Coverage on Detroit mentioned Cade Cunningham’s ability to score efficiently, but also explained that Detroit has excelled when games are ugly, physical, and dictated by defense instead of sheer offensive skill. Games like that typically lead to fewer total possessions and longer scoring droughts from both teams.

Considering all of these factors, the bet here is pretty straightforward: we have a tied playoff series, the total is sitting comfortably where we like it,  both teams want to play physical defense, and Orlando has already shown their cards by struggling mightily when Detroit forces them into a grind-it-out game. If Game 3 plays out similarly to how most of this series has gone, Pistons-Magic has a clear path to finish under the posted total.

Jim's Play: 541. Pistons/Magic UNDER

I like the Knicks as one my biggest plays of the NBA Postseason here on Saturday. For starters, this is now a desperation game for New York. The primary issue over their last two losses seemed to be random unexplainable mistakes, not systemic deficiencies. Plus, Game 3 was lost by one point, 109-108, after Game 2 was lost by one point, 107-106. Even though Atlanta leads the series 2-1, this has never felt like a series where the Hawks were just better than the Knicks. This felt like a series where New York continually failed to close out games when they had the chance.

First reason to trust the Knicks is rebounding/size. Something noted in the Game 3 preview was New York had a plus-14 rebounding margin in Game 2, and overall through two games the Knicks seemed to have the physical edge when focused. Rebounding matters on the road because extra possessions and second chances are one of the easiest ways to counteract a rowdy arena. If the Knicks get back to attacking that advantage they should have a clear path to setting the tempo and getting more efficient scoring opportunities.

Reason number two: Jalen Brunson. Despite blowing a lead in Game 3, the Knicks still have the best scorer in crunch time and a lot of criticism following Game 3 was about decision-making and play-calling rather than Atlanta figuring out a way to neutralize him. That’s huge because mistakes in execution tend to have better correctives game-to-game than matchup disadvantages do. If Brunson receives slightly better support from Karl-Anthony Towns and New York avoids playing stagnant down the stretch, they should have enough creation to steal one back in Atlanta.

Bonus reason: motivation. New York came into this series as the favorite but after Thursday’s game momentum is squarely against them with plenty of public analysis dubbing Game 4 as nearly a must-win. The Knicks favored here in Game 4 on the road? That should tell you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers view the Knicks versus Hawks series. They still believe New York is the better team despite Atlanta’s lead. When a team goes into a Game 4 with that kind of playoff-like pressure, they typically play with more urgency than the team that entered already knowing they needed a win.

Put it all together and here’s what you have: The Knicks are down 2-1 in a series where both of their losses were by one possession. They still have the advantage in size and they still have the most reliable closer in the series. New York cleans up their execution and plays with some desperation and they have every reason to trust they can win this game on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 545. Knicks