Jim Feist

The Pirates have several arguments on their side to win Friday. They host this game at PNC Park and roll out one of their better young starters in Bubba Chandler against a Rays team that’s still playing a live home dog despite their hot streak. Pittsburgh at 11-8 and Tampa Bay at 11-7, while Chandler gets set to duel Nick Martinez. Chandler doesn’t have sparkling surface stats at 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA, but he has also punched out 14 in 14 innings. That’s exactly the kind of swing-and-miss stuff you live for if his command improves.

On top of that, there’s a juicy spot angle for Pittsburgh. The Pirates lost 8-7 in extra innings to Washington on Thursday, but they were playing great baseball heading into that game. That included a 16-5 thrashing earlier this week where the Pirates’ lineup attacked behind Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz. It matters because this offense has already proven it can produce crooked numbers, and often times a one-run extra-inning defeat leads to the Pirates coming home hungry the following night.

Throw in the fact that this isn’t a laughably one-sided matchup on the mound either and you have yourself something interesting. Martinez has pitched well at 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, but he’s also not the kind of ace that makes the Pirates absolutely helpless. Pittsburgh has bats in the lineup that can change the game with one or two swings, and ESPN’s game page already has Brandon Lowe at 7 home runs and 16 RBI. This gives the Pirates a middle-of-the-order bat that could do serious damage if Martinez leaves something in the seats.

Look, it’s pretty simple for Pittsburgh to win this game: Chandler misses bats early on, the Pirates feed off the home crowd in a series opener, and their lineup does enough against a contact-heavy Tampa Bay starter to take the lead. Tampa Bay’s five-game win streak is impressive, but with the game in Pittsburgh and Chandler on the mound with legitimate strikeout potential, backing the Pirates here is very reasonable Friday.

Jim's Play: 922. Pirates 

Arizona also just looks like the better side Friday. The Diamondbacks come into this series hot and have the favorable pitching matchup. Arizona will start Mike Soroka on Friday while Toronto plans to counter with Eric Lauer. Arizona comes into this series after winning three series in a row on its recent road trip, which included taking two of three in Baltimore. Winning on the road is always impressive, but taking the series in Baltimore feels like a really good sign that this club is riding real momentum into this series.

There’s also something to fade about Toronto here. The Jays are injury depleted, this roster has been to start the year and how uneven Toronto’s play has been through the first two series. Between George Springer being out and the laundry list of other guys missing time, the Blue Jays just have not had full health to start the year. Even when you have Toronto’s best guys available, early-season inconsistencies often manifest in other ways like weak spots in the lineup and bullpen fatigue later in games.

Arizona has a pretty easy sell here. They’re at home. They’re coming in riding a wave after winning three series in a row on their recent road trip. And they don’t have to face an ace caliber arm in this series opener. If Soroka can give Arizona five solid innings, and the Diamondbacks hitters show the same intensity they did in Baltimore, Arizona has a great chance to win this game on Friday.

Jim's Play: 930. Diamondbacks 

Charlotte lines up a legitimate money-line case Friday because they have better short-term momentum and already proved they can win when the stakes are high in a postseason-type environment. The Hornets defeated Miami 127-126 in overtime on Tuesday during their 9-vs-10 play-in game as LaMelo Ball dropped 30 points and Miles Bridges added 28, allowing Charlotte to advance to this final play-in contest against Orlando for the East’s No. 8 seed. 

Something else to like about Charlotte: how this Hornets team matched up with Orlando previously. Charlotte defeated Orlando by 130-111 back on March 20 and they won the regular-season series 3-1, which is significant in a one-game scenario because it means Charlotte’s speed, shot-making ability and overall matchup have been troublesome for Orlando in the past.

Here’s one more factor working in Charlotte’s favor: a rest advantage. Orlando suffered a 109-97 defeat at Philadelphia on Wednesday night and they never really quit, but they were very much in that game before fading down the stretch as Tyrese Maxey exploded for 28 fourth-quarter points. So Orlando is playing on short rest while coming off a physical defeat, whereas Charlotte got an extra day of rest after winning its play-in opener.

Charlotte needs Ball and Bridges to keep their offense aggressive, they have to play with confidence after taking down Miami and cause more matchup issues for Orlando, who they beat three times already this season. As a game this close, I like Charlotte as a money-line play Friday due to that recent head-to-head advantage and possessing the better momentum.

Jim's Play: 573. Hornets (Money Line)