Jim Feist

The biggest edge is the situational one: Ohio is playing this bowl under an interim head coach after Brian Smith was fired for “serious professional misconduct” just days before kickoff, which is a major disruption on a short bowl-prep window, while UNLV arrives with normal continuity. On the field, UNLV’s offense is built to create separation - previews and stats pages peg the Rebels as a top-15 scoring unit (35.8 PPG) with strong efficiency, and they’re especially dangerous in the red zone (top-5 in red-zone scoring rate), which is exactly how favorites turn good drives into touchdowns and cover numbers like -6.5. QB Anthony Colandrea gives UNLV ceiling and flexibility as a true dual-threat (3,275 passing yards with 23 TD plus 621 rushing yards and 9 rushing TD), and UNLV’s balance on the ground (listed among the national leaders in yards per rush) makes it harder for Ohio to key on one dimension. The drive-to-drive math also leans UNLV: they convert about 48% on third down while holding opponents near 32%, a sustain-and-stop combination that typically produces a margin win. And stylistically, Ohio’s best “keep it close” script is run-heavy and lower-explosive through the air; if UNLV gets up early, it can force Ohio into a less comfortable pass-first chase mode, which makes a 7-14 point UNLV win - and a cover -very realistic.

Jim's Play: 215. UNLV 

The Seton Hall Pirates grade out as an elite defensive team (rated 13th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they create extra possessions with disruption, being cited as No. 1 in both Block% and Steal%, which is exactly how you separate in a tight Big East game. That rim protection is a particularly good matchup tool against Villanova’s half-court offense: Seton Hall is top-10 nationally in blocks per game (6.2), anchored by Stephon Payne, and getting freshman Najai Hines back from illness would only strengthen that interior edge. The setting also matters, this one’s at the Prudential Center, and Seton Hall’s 11–1 start signals it’s playing with confidence and consistency in these grind-it-out games. Villanova, meanwhile, has been operating with a tighter rotation (with Chris Jeffrey out), which can show up late if foul trouble or fatigue hits in a physical, defensive contest. Offensively, Seton Hall has enough guard depth to close: AJ Staton-McCray (13.4 PPG) and sixth-man spark Tajaun Simpkins (11.8 PPG on efficient shooting) give the Pirates multiple shot-creation options to win the final possessions and potentially stretch a one-possession game into a cover. And with the market pricing this as a low-total, short-spread game (Seton Hall around -2.5, total in the low 130s), a couple of Pirates’ “defense-to-offense” sequences can be the difference between merely winning and winning by 6–8.

Jim's Play :614. Seton Hall