Jim Feist

A couple angles are jumping out at me already: Duke is laying 5-5.5 points, and BOTH TEAMS have point guard health concerns going into a game that won’t likely be decided by much if the spread holds. 

Connecticut is a live play to cover primarily because this game feels like more of a grinder than a blowout is possible. Right off the bat, the biggest reason to like UConn against the number is experience, balance and simple tournament know-how. The Huskies are 32-5 on the year, just defeated Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight and have combined to go 16-1 in NCAA Tournament games over the last four seasons. That resume matters in this spot against a Duke team that had to battle St. John’s down the stretch to escape with a 80-75 victory.

Add in the fact that UConn has enough frontcourt weaponry to keep this game close for 40 minutes, too. Tarris Reed Jr. has been phenomenal for UConn in the tournament so far, and the combination of Reed and Alex Karaban gives the Huskies enough size, rebounding and interior scoring potential to not get bullied on the inside by Cameron Boozer and Duke’s overall length. As long as Reed continues to produce at an efficient rate inside, UConn doesn’t need to knock down shots to keep things within reach of the number.

Depth and health for Duke’s backcourt are also reasons to believe that UConn can at least keep this game close. The Blue Devils got an emotional boost from Caleb Foster’s return against St. John’s, but it’s unclear how effective Foster will be and/or how he’ll hold up over the course of 40 minutes fresh off a foot fracture. Both teams have point guard health concerns coming into this game, but if either guy has an “off” night or struggles with ball security a little, it actually helps the underdog have a chance to cover in games like these, even if Duke gets past Connecticut.

There’s even a stylistic angle to like with UConn, too. UConn’s deeper, more experienced roster along with Duke’s iffy three-point shooting in tournament play so far. If Duke struggles from distance again, UConn can afford to pack the lane, force Boozer to earn tough two pointers and turn this game into a possession-by-possession battle instead of opening the floor up for Duke to create real separation.

Again, Connecticut can win this outright, but the easiest way I see the Huskies covering the spread is by doing just enough on the boards, preventing Boozer from getting going entirely and relying on solid guard play from Malachi Smith and their veteran guards. 

I'll take the points with U Conn here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 633. U Conn

I like the  UNDER in the Rangers-Phillies matchup on Sunday, March 29, 2026 because the game is lined at only 8 runs, and the matchup is built around two left-handed starters rather than a bullpen game. Texas is sending MacKenzie Gore, while Philadelphia goes with Jesus Luzardo in the series rubber match at Citizens Bank Park. Reuters notes Luzardo went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA last year and also had a 2.70 spring ERA, while Gore is making his Rangers debut after a rough 2025 and spring. That does add volatility on the Texas side, but it also points to a game where Philadelphia may try to let Luzardo control the tempo early rather than turn it into a slugfest.

The strongest under angle is probably the total itself versus the likely script. With the number sitting at 8, the market is already pricing in a fairly normal offensive environment, not a bandbox shootout. Citizens Bank Park weather for this game is projected around the low-to-mid 50s with moderate wind, which is not an obvious explosive hitting setup, and the park factor listed for this matchup is essentially neutral at 1.02.

Another under point is that, despite Saturday’s 5-4 extra-inning game, this series has not been nonstop offense. Thursday’s opener ended 5-3, and Saturday stayed quiet for long stretches before the late rally and extra innings. Philadelphia had just one hit until the two-out comeback in the ninth on Saturday. That kind of game flow suggests these offenses can be contained for most of the afternoon if the starters are even decent.

Luzardo is the key piece if you like the under. He tied for fourth in the majors with 216 strikeouts last season, and he enters off a strong spring. If he gives Philadelphia six solid innings, Texas may not contribute enough to push this total over by itself. On the other side, Gore does not need to dominate. He just needs to be competitive enough to keep the game from becoming a crooked-number Phillies game early.

The risk to the under is obvious: Gore was shaky in spring, and both teams have already shown some late-inning punch in this series. But if Luzardo settles in and Gore is merely serviceable, this looks more like a 4-3 or 5-2 type of game than another extra-innings track meet.

Jim's Play: 965. Rangers/Phillies UNDER