Jim Feist

Cal Poly is a decent cover play (+1.5 or +2 are the best numbers I’m seeing widely available) because the matchup lends itself to a low-scoring, high-possession affair where a home dog simply doesn’t need to be “better,” it just needs to hang around. Cal Poly ranks No. 2 in the country in KenPom’s pace metric, meaning games tend to be faster when they’re on the floor. Faster games lead to more variance as there are more scoring swings which benefits the team getting points. Throw in the fact Cal Poly is rolling on offense right now (scoring 104 and 94 in their last two victories) and they’ve already showed they can shoot with CSUN in their first meeting (95–90 affair that was never really out of reach), and you get a very usable number.

The situational metrics lean towards the Mustangs as well. Cal Poly receives a monstrous bump in TeamRankings’ power ratings when they play at home (they’re listed as having an “HA” rating that is among the highest in the country), which is more valuable in a short spread game like this one. CSUN meanwhile has been wildly inconsistent away from home (just 1-4 SU in their last five road games), so requiring them to go on the road feels like a tougher ask than the line implies. Bring it all together and you have a nice and easy cover script: Cal Poly’s game-script keeps both offenses in “one-bucket" territory, their home-floor advantage lets them overcome defensive miscues, and even if CSUN takes it late a one-possession lead, Cal Poly still can win this game. .

Jim's Play: 840. Cal Poly (Big West Game of the Month)

Dallas and San Antonio meet here on Thursday and I'm looking at the Mavs in this “competitive rivalry game” rather than an easy Spurs cover. It’s the I-35 in-state rivalry where both games tend to be physical than normal, emotional than normal, and closer than normal late as neither side wants to look like they got punked by their neighbor. Combine that with San Antonio playing in a back-to-back coming off an Oklahoma City game on Wednesday, Feb. 4 and the path to the cover becomes even clearer: fatigued legs at night tip always manifest themselves most on defensive closeouts, transition defense, and late-game shot-making, all of which are apt to decide exactly where a 6–10 point spread ends up on the scoreboard (in one- or two-possession territory).

The final reason Dallas is live to hang around is just the math of what the number asks them to do. Even if San Antonio is the better team this year (which they probably are), -6.5 still dictates San Antonio winning by multiple possessions on the road, which is a tough ask in a rivalry game where you know the home teams urgency is going to be through the roof. If Dallas can simply play decent enough defense (limit turnovers and easy San Antonio runouts) and make this a half-court game, they don’t actually need to “outplay” the Spurs for 48 minutes to win — they just need to avoid getting absolutely destroyed by the Spurs during one potential fatigue-fueled segment (like when a back-to-back team goes on a 5-minute blitz). And if it’s close late, easy points will always be there in the form of backscreens and free throws knowing this game should have a “decent” scoring pace.

Jim's Play: 526. Mavericks

West Virginia passes my tests as a reliable cover on Thursday night simply because the number and game situation both suggest this is a grinder where points matter. Right now the market is sitting around Cincinnati -5.5 with a 127.5 total, which is one of those “low-possession” games you’re looking for. Games that are going to finish in the low 60s are harder for the favorite to cleanly separate and win by 6+ points unless they’re clearly healthier/effective than their opponent.

Availability is a huge tangible advantage right now, too. West Virginia has no injuries showing up on the big injury board, while Cincinnati has real rotation questions they’ll need to answer at some point: Shon Abaev is out, while Moustapha Thiam and Sencire Harris are both questionable. Questionable players usually play when they suit up, but those tags imply game rust, limited minutes, conditioning issues, or foul risk, and against this number any of those variables could keep it close.

Last thing, Cincinnati hasn’t necessarily been a team that can “separate and cover” games lately anyway, boasting middling recent ATS numbers in the buildup. That leans into the overall feeling that this could be a possession-by-possession game down the final few minutes. If WVU takes care of the ball and forces Cincinnati to score in the half court, I think the most likely outcome is Cincinnati wins a tight one, but West Virginia stays inside the +5.5.

Jim's Play: 781. West Virginia