Jim Feist

Let’s start with why Orlando actually has a legitimate shot to win outright Wednesday night. The value shifts significantly when Joel Embiid is ruled out for Philadelphia. Embiid is Philly’s best interior scorer, rebounder, and rim protector, so multiple previews highlighted the center matchup as a weakness for Philly, as they will have to rely on Andre Drummond and Adem Bona to keep up with Orlando’s frontcourt talent. This shift becomes glaring when you consider Orlando is built around larger wings and forwards like Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane.

Orlando also sports the type of roster that should make life difficult for Philadelphia’s guards. The Magic operate as one of the bigger teams in the league while also boasting strong perimeter defense as part of its identity. Multiple betting previews noted the Magic’s defense presents issues for Philadelphia, especially if Tyrese Maxey can’t fully stay on top of his finger tendon injury while Embiid sits. If Orlando can keep Maxey grounded, it really does even the playing field in what would otherwise be a typical road play-in favorite scenario.

Don’t overlook the talent side of things with Orlando, either. Simply put, Orlando boasts three potential star scorers with Banchero, Wagner, and Bane. Coverage targeting Philadelphia mentioned the trio as “dangerous” and noted how any of those three are capable of exploding for 30-plus points. In a play-in game, shot creation will be paramount, and Orlando having multiple players that defenses fear is a net positive.

Throw in that Orlando was riding four straight wins just a week ago when they dropped 53.7% from the field and 41.4% from three against Minnesota, and there’s some recent form backing up this upset and cover argument as well. The Magic posted up a nearly identical 45-37 record to Philly’s, so we’re not talking about some massive discrepancy game on paper. This one should be close based solely on records, and that was reflected in the opening line with Orlando as a slight underdog around +2.

Putting it all together, I really like Orlando’s best-case game script: attack Philly with size in the post, create good offense through Banchero and Wagner, and force an undermanned Sixers team to play from behind without Embiid controlling the paint. If that happens, the Magic have every chance in the world to pull off the outright win. 

Jim's Play: 561. Magic (Play-In Game of the Year)

I am looking at Cleveland to win Thursday because the Guardians have a clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland leans on Parker Messick who will take the mound at 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Baltimore sends Shane Baz to the mound who is currently 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

Then there’s the home field advantage. Thursday’s game takes place at Progressive Field where Cleveland has played well so far this season. Baltimore arrives in Cleveland just hours after an 8-5 extra-innings loss to Arizona that highlighted some persistent problems in the Orioles’ defense. Camden Chat wrote about Wednesday’s Orioles loss and highlighted the shaky outfield defense Baltimore has along with some instability in their roster construction. Baltimore doesn’t exactly have the resume of a team you want to roll into a road series opener against a Cleveland team that will likely pressure them with quality at-bats and strong pitching.

Of course Cleveland could just look to get back on track after losing two in a row in St. Louis. Reuters pointed out Cleveland hadn’t lost consecutive games before their recent two-game skid which bodes well for their ability to bounce back. Cleveland did show off what their offense is capable of earlier this week when they beat the Cardinals 9-3 behind multiple hitters going deep. José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Brayan Rocchio, and Angel Martinez were all a part of that offensive outburst. Baltimore’s starter has allowed 20 hits through 16 innings this season so Cleveland has every opportunity to manufacture more traffic than Baltimore can deal with.

The Guardians’ best case scenario probably isn’t complicated at all. Messick continues to dominate like he has all season, Cleveland takes an early lead at home, and Baltimore’s below-average pitching and defense rears its head again. Cleveland has the better starter, home field advantage, and a visiting Orioles team that just got blown up on Wednesday night.

Jim's Play: 964. Guardians (Game of the Week)