Jim Feist

It's the final of the Crown Tounament from Las Vegas, NV as Oklahoma faces off against West Virginia.  West Virginia is a solid spread play because the number is short enough to keep the Mountaineers live all night. Oklahoma is sitting around a 3.5-point favorite, with the total in the 136.5 to 137.5 range, which points to a fairly competitive title game rather than a spot where the favorite is expected to run away and hide. In a lower-total game like that, every possession matters more, which naturally helps the underdog’s cover chances.

The biggest reason to like West Virginia against the spread is how well it is playing right now. The Mountaineers just hammered Creighton 87-70 in the semifinals, and that was not a fluky result. West Virginia shot 53%, hit 12 threes, and got a big game from DJ Thomas, showing it has more offensive upside than its season-long profile might suggest. A team coming off that kind of confident, balanced win is dangerous getting points in a neutral-floor final.

There is also a matchup angle working in West Virginia’s favor. Oklahoma averages 82.9 points per game and leans heavily on perimeter shooting, while West Virginia’s best path is to pressure the ball, contest those outside looks, and turn this into a more physical, half-court game. Oklahoma makes 9.7 threes per game, while West Virginia allows 7.3 made threes per game, so if the Mountaineers can keep that gap from widening, they are in position to stay inside the number.

West Virginia also has enough offense to answer when Oklahoma makes a run. The Mountaineers score 70.1 points per game and outscore opponents by 4.8 points per game, while Oklahoma allows 77.1 points per game. That matters because West Virginia does not need to dominate this matchup. It just needs to avoid long scoring droughts and keep the game within one or two possessions, which is very realistic against a defense that has been vulnerable enough to give up points.

The simplest case for the bet is that this game is priced much closer to a toss-up than the team names alone might suggest. West Virginia has a very real shot to either win outright or at least keep it close enough to cover +3.5. That makes the Mountaineers the more attractive side in a championship game.

Jim's Play: 654. West Virginia

The over has a legitimate case here on Sunday as the Rays take on the Twins.  This is a matchup featuring two hittable right-handers. We know both lineups can hit because they’ve already put up crooked numbers in this series. Tampa Bay’s probable Sunday starter is Nick Martinez. Minnesota will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson. Martinez has a 3.00 ERA on the season in 6.0 innings, and Woods Richardson isn’t far behind him at 3.60 ERA through 5.0 innings. It’s solid on paper but not a dream matchup that should limit offense right out of the gate.

The other reason to lean over in this spot: The flow of recent games. Minnesota took game one of the series with a 10-4 win on Friday. Tampa Bay answered the next day with a 7-1 victory. Games one and two totaled 14 and eight runs, respectively. Each team has shown it can play a role in getting a game past a standard total if the right starter or bullpen cracks.

Speaking of batting order, Tampa Bay also brings a lineup into this game that can string enough together to cash an over ticket. Tampa Bay posted seven runs on Saturday on 10 hits. Add in the fact Yandy Diaz is still smoking, and it’s easy to see how this Tampa Bay offense can challenge Minnesota’s pitching if it relaxes for even a moment. Diaz has a  .424 average with two homers and 10 RBI. Diaz is a legit middle-of-the-order threat if Woods Richardson leaves anything over the plate.

Minnesota still has a clear offensive path even after laying down on Saturday night. The Twins enter Sunday’s game averaging 5.14 runs per game while the Rays’ pitching staff had allowed 6.86 runs per game entering Sunday’s game. That indicates Minnesota can still come alive on the offensive end at home, and hitting the over does not always mean one team must outscore the other by itself.

Cleanest path to the over? Tampa Bay doesn’t stop hitting like it did on Saturday, Minnesota has a better day against Martinez than it did against Steven Matz and the game ends up falling in the 5-4 or 6-4 range. With two viable starters and both offenses showing they can produce in this series already, Rays-Twins over is the better bet angle.

Jim's Play: 909. Rays/Twins OVER 

Tulsa has the look of a quality spread side because the number feels a little too big for how this matchup shapes up. Auburn is laying about a 5-to-5.5-points in Sunday’s NIT Championship, so Tulsa does not need to win to cover. Against a visiting team on a neutral floor in a title game where both squads have played well lately, that is enough cushion for the Golden Hurricane to keep their wagering action inside the number.

Above all else, Tulsa has impressed how stable they have played all tournament. Tulsa is 30-7 overall and knocked off New Mexico 74-69 in the semifinals behind five players scoring in double figures and never trailing after halftime. Tulsa hitting five guys in double figures is notable against Auburn because it makes them harder to shut down defensively, and limits the Tigers chances of flustering the Golden Hurricane when they get going.

Tulsa has underlying stats to back up their place in this game as well. A matchup preview published before either semifinal pointed out Tulsa’s No. 55 overall efficiency with a top-40 offense to Auburn’s No. 37 efficiency ranking overall, before highlighting Tulsa’s 5-2 ATS record on neutral courts this season. Those stats support Tulsa being close enough in talent to avoid getting blown out, particularly on this neutral floor where possessions have a bit more gravity.

Lastly, there’s likely regression against Auburn’s score from their semifinal performance. Auburn torched Illinois State 88-66, but the Tigers shot 60.7% from the field and 57.1% from three-point range. They obviously do not need to replicate that offensive output to cover the spread, but if Auburn cools down at all from beyond the arc it suddenly becomes difficult to cover more than two possessions.

My play is Tulsa +5.5. Tulsa is balanced, experienced playing in these sorts of games this year, and talented enough on offense to keep pace with Auburn for the full 40 minutes. 

Jim's Play: 655. Tulsa