Dave Price College Basketball ATS Predictions & Free Picks

Dave’s Saturday Free Play: 

1* on Nebraska +2.5 

The Key: It has been a tale of two seasons for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They were expected to struggle early in Scott Frost’s first season, and they did.  But they have rebounded nicely here of late by going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  They covered the spread in road losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Ohio State, the latter two of which they had a great chance to win outright, losing in OT to Northwestern and only by 5 at Ohio State.  And they beat Minnesota 53-28 at home and Illinois 54-35 at home.  Their offense has been unstoppable behind Adrian Martinez.  I’m not sure how Michigan State can keep up.  The Spartans have been held to 24 or fewer points in each of their last 6 games.  They are coming off a huge 6-26 loss to Ohio State, and won’t be nearly as hungry to face Nebraska this week.  The Spartans are scoring just 19.3 PPG in conference play.  The Huskers are 8-1 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons.  The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State.  Take Nebraska.

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6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +28 

The Key: Auburn has the Iron Bowl on deck against Alabama next week.  The Tigers just lost to Georgia last week.  This is a sandwich game for them.  They had a similar situation earlier this season when they only beat Southern Miss 24-13 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  Now they’re 28-point favorites against Liberty here, a Liberty team that has been competitive in almost every game this season.  Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog of 21.5 or more points.  Take Liberty. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Lafayette -17 

The Key: Lafayette sits at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility here as they host South Alabama.  They want to take care of business here on Senior Day and will be hungry to do so because they don’t want to try and have to win next week against red-hot Louisiana-Monroe on the road.  They should handle their business against South Alabama, which is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall with all 6 losses coming by 17 points or more.  The Jaguars are 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 32.6 PPG on average.  Lafayette is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home and scoring 45.2 PPG with 554 YPG.  Their offense is built to cover big spreads like this.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games coming in.  The Jaguars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

6* Indiana/Michigan Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +28.5 

The Key: Michigan has its Super Bowl on deck against Ohio State.  I have to think the Wolverines will be looking past the Hoosiers and ahead to that game, which will decide the Big Ten East champion and possibly which team makes the four-team playoff.  Any lack of focus out of the Wolverines this week and it’s going to be tough to cover this 28.5-point spread.  Even if they show up it’s going to be tough because the Hoosiers are no pushovers.  They have yet to lose a game by more than 26 points despite playing a rugged Big Ten East schedule.  Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a win by 35 points or more as the coach of the Wolverines.  Take Indiana. 

6* UNLV/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Hawaii -6.5 

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 6-5 this season.  But they need one more win for a bowl because they play 13 games, which requires 7 wins.  And they have a road game on deck next week against San Diego State.  So this will be Hawaii’s Super Bowl.  And they should be well prepared considering they had a bye last week to get ready for it.  UNLV played and won its Super Bowl last week in a 27-24 upset at San Diego State as 24-point dogs.  But San Diego State was looking ahead to its game with Fresno State this week to decide the division title.  And UNLV won’t show up at all this week against the Rainbow Warriors in my estimation.  UNLV is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off a road win against a conference opponent.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +3.5 

The Key: The Cowboys got the statement win they needed with a 27-20 upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Philadelphia last week.  It gave them the confidence they needed to make a push for the NFC East title in the second half of the season.  And now they face a reeling Falcons team that just lost to the lowly Brown 16-28 last week.  The Cowboys have a much improved offense with Amari Cooper now, giving them the threat on the outside they have been missing.  The Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Falcons defense that is yielding 28.2 PPG and 415 YPG.  They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry and 70.4% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. teams who allow 375 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

6* Titans/Colts AFC South *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis -1 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in in his last 9 meetings with the Titans.  He makes all the difference for this team.  And the Colts are flying under the radar right now.  They have won their last 3 games by a combined 49 points.  Now they catch the Titans in a tough spot off their win over the Patriots last week.  They are in line for a letdown here.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -1 

The Key: Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley both stated that the Giants are going to win their remaining 8 games and salvage their season.  While I don’t believe them, I do think they’ll win this week against the Bucs.  And they won their first game back from the bye over the 49ers to start the streak.  It just shows that they aren’t quitting.  And it’s worth noting they played the toughest schedule in the NFL in the first half of the season.  It gets easier now, and it started with the 49ers and moves on to the Bucs this week.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  The Bucs managed just 3 points in a 16-3 loss to an injury-ravaged Redskins team ripe for the picking.  Things are not good in Tampa Bay right now.  The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bucs.  Take New York.