Doc’s Sports

We think that this is a great time to fade the Warriors. The turmoil in this squad is real, and they will continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers regardless of their performance on the court. After their record-setting season a couple years ago this team started caring less and less about the regular season after they lost in the finals to the Cavs. They started to become a lousy regular-season bet at that point. This team started hot ATS, but they have now failed to cover in four of their last five, and the ATS losses will keep coming. Curry and Green are out tonight, and we don’t see the Warriors playing to their potential against a Dallas team is 5-2 at home and should give their best effort against the world champs.

Both teams come in on a back-to-back, but the Celtics played in OT last night in a much bigger game and we think this might be a letdown spot against a Jazz team that needs a win before a couple lousy games snowball into a concerning losing streak. We see think both offenses might come out a bit flat in this one and there is a good chance for a low-scoring game, which makes the points for the underdog even more valuable. These teams played recently in Utah and the Jazz won that one pretty comfortably, so we know they can match up against Boston. We think the dog has a great chance to bark tonight for the outright win.

Both teams come in on a back-to-back, but the Celtics played in OT last night in a much bigger game and we think this might be a letdown spot against a Jazz team that needs a win before a couple lousy games snowball into a concerning losing streak. We see think both offenses might come out a bit flat in this one and there is a good chance for a low-scoring game, which makes the points for the underdog even more valuable. These teams played recently in Utah and the Jazz won that one pretty comfortably, so we know they can match up against Boston. We think the dog has a great chance to bark tonight for the outright win.

4-Unit Play. #007. Take Montreal vs Vancouver. (Saturday, November 17, 7:05 pm)

Look, the Canucks are in a brutal spot here. They just finished up a season long six-game road trip and now have to turn around in an early game PST time, against a Montreal team that is full of confidence after their latest win. Look, this will be Canucks 4th game in 6 days in three different time zones. It's a tough ask for a team to return home on such a short turn around and play their best game. The Habs won last time out against Calgary, so they've been waiting for Vancouver to arrive and we believe their team speed and goal scoring record of late will be too much for the Canucks to handle. We also like the fact that Price is getting the start in net for MTL as he looked solid last game and is starting to round into the Vezina form we all expect from him. Montreal has beaten the Canucks in five straight meetings and we expect them to make it six straight tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #584 Villanova over Furman (5p.m., Saturday, November 17 FS2) The Wildcats looked awful against Michigan this week but expect them to bounce back in a big way Saturday afternoon against an inferior opponent. Villanova is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played on Saturday. This should be a game where Villanova scored in the nineties and that will allow them to cover this big number.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. Take #544 Over in Michigan vs George Washington (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 ESPN 3) Michigan has been playing outstanding defense in their first three games but I do not expect that to last for much longer. That is an incredible pace, but the Colonials scored 57 against a better defensive team in Virginia and I expect them to reach 60 points in this game. George Washington has gone over the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games.

10 Unit Play. Take #416 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 FOX) Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country and they have a good chance to win their remaining two games on the schedule. They have been playing a home heavy schedule of late and this has allowed them to get healthy. Michigan State has a terrible offense and I just do not believe they will be able to attack and score consistently on this suspect Husker defense. Nebraska has covered the spread in 5 straight games including our top play a few weeks ago when they blew out Minnesota. This is just a classic case of two teams heading in different directions. QB Arian Martinez can play and will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in this conference. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State (4-1 in Lincoln).

4 Unit Play. Take #353 Cincinnati Bearcats over UCF Golden Knights (8p.m., Saturday, November 17 ABC) Both teams have explosive offenses, but they difference in this game will be the play of the Bearcat defense. If they can get a lead in this game and make UCF play from behind, they will win it straight-up. Cincinnati has the fifth ranked defense in FBS and UCF will finally have some resistance on offense. UCF is 2-8 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of November. UCF will have their moments in this game and there will be some points scored but getting around a touchdown is just too good to pass up with Cincinnati.

4 Unit Play. Take #350 Maryland Terrapins over Ohio State Buckeyes (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 ABC) Ohio State has not looked good in recent weeks and this is a classic look ahead situation with a winner take all game on deck against Michigan. Ohio State won last week against Michigan State, 26-6 but that score is very misleading as Michigan State self-destructed in the second half. Maryland needs win victory in their last two games to become bowl eligible. They will not accomplish that but would be able to keep this game around a 10-point deficit. Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.

4 Unit Play. Take #321 Pittsburgh Panthers over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 ACCN) The Panthers are for real having won three straight games against better competition from what they will see today in Winston – Salem. They just need to win one of their two remaining games to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Wake Forest is coming off a major upset against NC State last Thursday and because of that this line is three points shorter from what it should be. Wake Forest is 0-3 ATS this year as a home underdog. The Demon Deacons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 5 straight games.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #319 Indiana Hoosiers over Michigan Wolverines (4p.m., Saturday, November 17 FS1) We will take the points in this game as it is a classic situation where Michigan will be looking ahead to Ohio State the following week. Expect them to just go through the motions similar to what they did last week against Rutgers. Indiana needs to win one of their last two games to become bowl eligible and it will not happen this week but expect a good effort for preparing them for their season finale against Purdue the following Saturday. Michigan is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored more than 40 points the previous week. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. This is going to be a monster weekend so sign-up now and let 47 years of handicapping experience work for you.

We have faded the Golden State Warriors the last two games, and it has worked out pretty well, so we will go for three in a row here. We have the feeling the Warriors may enter their toughest stretch of this current regime. They have off-court drama going on, impending free agency and injuries. They also don’t have the fire they have had in previous seasons. And we don’t think they give a crap. As long as they are healthy and synched heading into the playoffs, we don’t think this team cares about playoff positioning as long as they are a Top 4 seed. The Spurs are in a more desperate situation tonight as they have lost five of six. But they have played a road-heavy schedule. They are still dominant at home at 5-2, and they will put their best foot forward tonight. They aren’t going to give the Warriors any breaks because of their current problems, and we think they win this one by a comfortable margin tonight.

4 Unit Play. Take #778 Oklahoma over Wofford (2p.m., Sunday, November 18) This is a home game for the Sooners and should be able to win this game by double digits. Oklahoma is 2-0 on the season and both wins have come over today’s posted number. Wofford is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 12 teams. Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played on Sunday.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3 Unit Play. Take #723 Central Florida over Western Kentucky (6:30p.m., Sunday, November 18 ESPN2) UCF is a buzz saw early in the season and we will ride them again in the Championship Game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Golden Knights have great size in the pant and the Hilltoppers will struggle to match that. UCF is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on Sunday.

7-Unit Play. #663. Take Hamilton +3.5 vs Ottawa (Sunday November 18 @ 1:00p.m.)

It's the meeting we've all been waiting for in the Eastern Conference. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs the Ottawa Redblacks. Hamilton is in this position thanks to a dominating 48-8 win over BC. Now they get a chance to redeem themselves and extract a little payback on the Redblacks, a team who the Ti-Cats have lost to three times during the regular season. Maybe the Redblacks just have the Ti-Cats number. But we are not willing to believe that for one second. Every game and every situation is different and the Tiger-Cats are a different team than what they were a month ago. Look, the TiCats are led by their QB Masoli and he is a nominee for Most Outstanding Player. He threw three touchdown passes in the game against BC - a team that has a much better defense than Ottawa, so it's very likely he replicates that performance. On the other hand, Ottawa is led by Trevor Harris, but he hasn't always been consistent this year. In a one-game scenario, Harris has just as much a chance to bust, then boom and we believe the Tiger-Cats defense - who stepped up in a big way last week - will continue to play at a Grey Cup winning level. The TiCats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Redblacks are just 1-5 ATS vs at team with a losing record.

4 Unit Play. Take #471 Pittsburgh Steelers over Jacksonville Jaguars (1p.m., Sunday, November 18 CBS) Things have gotten bad in a hurry for Jacksonville as they have been flexed out of Sunday Night Football in favor of a better match-up. Pittsburgh is currently on pace for a bye in the playoffs and cannot afford to look past this game. Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh twice last year and that just makes this a strong play for us with the visitor. The Jaguars are 11-22 ATS (1 push) in their last 34 home games when they are an underdog. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 5 straight games and I just do not believe Jacksonville can beat them again. The road team has covered 5 straight games in this series.

4 Unit Play. Take #466 New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1p.m., Sunday, November 18 FOX) The Giants just have to many playmakers to be this bad. They picked up a big win last Monday in San Francisco and should be able to make it two in a row against another bad team in Tampa Bay. Tehir offensive line played their best game of the season last time out. The Buccaneers have lost 6 of their last 7 games and not being able to decide on a quarterback has cost them dearly. Their last two games have been over early and I just do not see them being able to win on the road at the Meadowlands. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. New York is 6-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games against Tampa Bay.

4 Unit Play. Take #453 Dallas Cowboy over Atlanta Falcons (1p.m., Sunday, November 18 FOX) Both teams have been streaky, but it appears Dallas is trending up whereas Atlanta laid an egg last week at Cleveland. Dallas should be able to run the football in this game and that will allow them to have success passing as well off of play action. Atlanta will put up some points and yards in this game but in the end,  Dallas will pull it out by a field goal. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.