Jack Jones

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Detroit Tigers +103 

After losing the first two games of this series and five straight overall, the Detroit Tigers should be highly motivated for a victory at home Saturday against the Oakland A’s.  I think they get it as underdogs here. 

Matt Boyd has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He is 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in nine starts this season with 65 K’s in 54 1/3 innings.  He is also 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in five home starts. 

Daniel Mengden has never been able to hold down a spot in the rotation over the last few years with the Oakland A’s because he’s been so inconsistent.  In his lone starts this year, Mengden gave up 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings to the Indians for a 6.75 ERA and 1.689 WHIP. 

Boyd is 10-2 in home games off a loss over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 10-1 in Boyd’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The A’s are 3-11 in their last 14 road games.  Oakland is 0-5 in its last five during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

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Jack has THREE Top 10 MLB Finishes to his credit! He is riding a 169-127 MLB Run since last season!

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15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -114 

We’re getting the Atlanta Braves at a great value at home here tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers.  Kevin Gausman dominated in the second half last year after being traded to the Braves, and he has been solid thus far in 2019 as well. 

Indeed, Gausman is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in four home starts.  Gausman is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in one career start against Milwaukee as well. 

Chase Anderson has been hurt all year and cannot be trusted to go deep into this game.  He is averaging just 4.8 innings per start in his two starts this year.  Anderson has posted a 4.84 ERA in four career starts against Atlanta as well. 

The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  Atlanta is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  They called up Austin Riley recently and the fans have gone nuts.  It has also injected life into their lineup as the Braves have scored 26 runs while winning three in a row.  Roll with the Braves Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -114 

The New York Mets come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight, including Game 1 of this series to the Marlins.  They lost as -210 favorites yesterday, but today we are getting them at a much more reasonable price of -114. 

Steven Matz has been underrated his entire career in the big leagues.  He has performed well in 2019 as well, going 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in seen starts, including 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three.  Matz is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts vs. Miami as well. 

Pablo Lopez is 2-5 with a 5.93 ERA in eight starts for the Marlins, including 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts.  Lopez is 1-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.111 WHIP in two career starts against New York as well. 

Matz is 8-0 vs. teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons.  Matz is also 8-0 vs. NL teams that score 4 or fewer runs per game over the last two years.  Miami is 2-18 after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season.  The Marlins are 0-9 in Lopez’s last nine starts vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Mets Saturday. 

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers know they can beat the Warriors. They proved it in the regular season by splitting the season series 2-2.  And they certainly gave them a run for their money in Games 1 and 2 in Golden State. 

Indeed, the Blazers were tired off their seven-game series with the Nuggets, yet they were only down by 6 points at the end of three quarters despite playing their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1.  They played much better in Game 2 and actually led by 17 in the 3rd quarter, but the Warriors came back and stole a victory late. 

Now, with their season on the line, the Blazers should be able to win Game 3 at home.  The Warriors are likely to relax after protecting their home court, while the Blazers are likely to play with a big chip on their shoulder here after letting Game 2 slip away.  This is my favorite bet of the conference finals. 

The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games off a win.  The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -2 

It’s now or never for the Toronto Raptors.  They must win Game 3 if they want to get back in this series after losing the first two, and I trust them to get the job done. 

The Raptors are 37-11 at home this season.  Milwaukee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three or more consecutive home wins.  Toronto is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five ATS over the last three years.  Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -150 

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of four overall.  And now they have their ace on the mound Sunday in Jack Flaherty. 

Flaherty is underrated because he has bad numbers thus far.  He is 4-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in nine starts.  He’ll be opposed by Drew Smyly, who is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 in five starts. 

The Rangers are 1-4 in Smyly’s last 5 starts.  Texas is 1-4 in its last five games following a loss.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (-105) 

The New York Mets are so motivated today to beat the Miami Marlins.  Noah Synderaard is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his last three starts and pitching like the ace he is.  Syndergaard is 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in eight career starts against Miami, having never lost to them. 

Sandy Alcantara is 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA in four career starts against the Mets. 

Miami is 11-31 as a dog of +100 or higher this season.  New York is 3-13 in their 16 road games.  The Marlins are 1-5 in Alcantara’s last six starts.  Miami is 8-21 in its last 29 games following a win.  Bet the Mets Sunday.