Jack Jones

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +12.5 

The Houston Rockets come into this game overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are also in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Thursday, a game they clearly had circled. 

The Rockets won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  The Kings played yesterday in a 104-112 loss to the Grizzlies, but this back-to-back situation isn’t so bad for them.   

That’s because they had three days off prior to that Memphis game.  This is a very young, deep team that will have plenty of energy left in the tank to give the Rockets a run for their money tonight. 

The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  The Kings are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

The Charlotte Hornets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their worst loss of the season, an 89-113 setback at Cleveland as 8.5-point favorites.  They’ve had three days off since that loss on Tuesday to get ready for this game tonight. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here.  They won a hard-fought battle with the Jazz 113-107 last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hornets.  This is a dream spot for Charlotte. 

Adding fuel to the fire for the Hornets is the fact that they’ve already lost their first two meetings with the 76ers by a combined 3 points.  So they’ll be revenge-minded here. 

Charlotte is a perfect 13-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  The Hornets are winning by 10.5 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +6.5 

Saint Louis is a team on the rise under Travis Ford.  They are expected to challenge for an Atlantic 10 title this season, and for good reason.  They return three starters who combined to average 34 points per game last season. 

The Billikens are off to a 3-0 start, but they are 0-3 ATS, which I believe has them undervalued going into this game with Seton Hall Saturday.  This is a game they can win outright. 

Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity.  That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.   

That trio is irreplaceable.  It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard.  That was evident last time out when the Pirates lost 57-80 at Nebraska.  They should not even be favored in this game, let alone 6.5-point favorites at that. 

Seton Hall is 3-12 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4 

The Lakers are finally starting to play up to their potential.  They have gone 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They are only laying 4 points here to the Orlando Magic, and I think we’re getting a discount today. 

The Lakers are well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Lakers are coming off a 126-117 win over Portland on Wednesday.  Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. 

The Magic are coming off an upset win over the 76ers.  The Magic are just 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a win.  Orlando is also just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games when paying on two days’ rest.  Take the Lakers Saturday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Iowa State +3 

The Iowa State Cyclones have been unstoppable since going to Brock Purdy at quarterback.  They’ve gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to put themselves in position to make the Big 12 Championship Game.  If they win their final two games and West Virginia loses to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma, they will be in the title game. 

Matt Campbell has already taking this program to heights unseen in his three years here.  And they’re hungry for more.  The key to their success this season has been a defense that is the best in the Big 12.  The Cyclones are giving up just 20.4 points per game on the season, holding opponents to 12.7 points per game less than their season averages. 

Purdy has been phenomenal as a freshman, showing the poise of a senior.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,315 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his five games as a starter.  He has also rushed for 252 yards and two scores, and it’s his escapability that makes him so special.  Opposing defenses just can’t sack him. 

Texas has to be tired from three straight barn-burners.  They lost 35-38 at Oklahoma State and then 41-42 at home against West Virginia.  And last week they needed a late touchdown to beat Texas Tech 41-34.  Their offense has been clicking, but they haven’t faced a defense as good as Iowa State this season, and that’s going to be the difference. 

The Longhorns are getting shredded defensively.  In their last three games, they have allowed 38 points per game and a whopping 558.3 yards per game.  Purdy should have his way with this Texas defense.  And one thing that’s getting overlooked is that the Longhorns are decimated by injuries in their secondary. They have three starters and a top backup in the defensive backfield listed on the injury report this week. 

The Cyclones are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall.  Iowa State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The wrong team is favored here.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

No. 3 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 955-784 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $94,180! That includes a 279-187 Run on his last 466 football plays! He is also 45-18 L9 Saturday's on the NCAA gridiron after going 8-0-1 last Saturday!

No. 1 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered FOUR TOP-9 CFB Finishes L6 Years (#3 in 2012-13, #4 in 2014-15, #8 in 2016-17, #9 in 2017-18) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 536-413 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $85,670!

This money train stays right on track with Jack's MONSTER Saturday College Football 9-Pack for $69.95! Leading the charge are FOUR 25*/20* Top Plays, including his ONE & ONLY 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR! Knowing you get this play alone makes this package worth the price of admission considering he's 7-0 on CFB 25* Plays in 2018!

It would cost you roughly $345.00 to buy all nine plays separately, so YOU SAVE $275.00 with this 9-Pack! Plus, you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or the next day of college football is ON JACK!

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -5.5 

I was on Florida International -10 at UTSA last week and they delivered with an emphatic 45-7 victory.  I’m back on them again for many of the same reasons, and for the simple fact that they should be laying more than 5.5 points to Charlotte this week. 

FIU is a highly motivated team right now.  That’s because a win this week would tie them for first place with Middle Tennessee for the C-USA East Division lead.  And they beat Middle Tennessee 24-21, so they own the tiebreaker.  Essentially, they control their own destiny.  Win out and they will win the East Division and earn a trip to the C-USA Championship Game to face UAB.  I expect them to handle their business this week. 

Charlotte is in a world of hurt right now offensively.  They lost starting QB Chris Reynolds a few weeks back to a season-ending ankle injury.  He was completing 64.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio at the time of his departure.  Backup Evan Shirreffs just hasn’t been nearly as good, completing only 51.9% of his passes with a 2-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Reynolds averaged 7.6 YPA compared to 6.1 YPA for Shirreffs as well. 

That helps explain why Charlotte’s offense has struggled so badly over the last four weeks.  They are averaging just 11.5 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last four games.  I just don’t see how Charlotte can possibly hang with this high-powered FIU attack that is averaging 34.8 points per game on the season.  Offensively, this is a huge mismatch, and we’ll gladly bet the better offensive team here. 

FIU is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games off a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.  Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games off two consecutive games where it committed one or fewer turnovers.  The Golden Panthers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a win by 21 points or more. 

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after having lost five or six of their last seven games against opponent after having won three of their last four games are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Florida International Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -13.5 

It was obvious that South Florida’s 7-0 start was a fraudulent one.  They were outgained by 176 yards by Georgia Tech and found a way to win.  They were also outgained by 116 yards by ECU and won 20-13.  They only beat Tulsa by one and UConn by 8, and those are two of the worst teams in the AAC. 

But once the competition ramped up in recent weeks, the Bulls were exposed for the frauds that they are. They lost 36-57 at Houston and were outgained by 215 yards.  They lost 15-41 to Tulane at home, getting upset as 6-point favorites.  And they lost 23-35 at Cincinnati last week.  It’s worth noting the Bearcats had the ball down to the USF 1-yard line in closing seconds and took a knee. 

Now they have to face Temple, which I believe is the best team in the AAC.  They beat Cincinnati earlier this season and have been playing great football.  They should have beaten UCF a few weeks ago as they outgained them by 40 yards but blew a late lead and lost 40-52 on the road.  And then last week they went on the road at Houston and won 59-49 as 3.5-point dogs.  South Florida was blasted by both Houston and Cincinnati, and they’d get blasted by UCF, too.  They’ll get blasted by Temple this week. 

This is a Temple offense that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They put up 40 points and 670 total yards on UCF two weeks ago, and then 59 points and 537 total yards on Houston last week.  When I’m laying double-digit points like this, I want it to be with an offense that is going to put up a big number.  And there’s no question the Owls are going to hang a big number on this poor USF defense that has allowed an average of 38.2 points per game in their last six games.  That’s real bad when you consider UMass, Tulsa, UConn and Tulane were four of those six opponents. 

I have to believe Temple remembers their 7-43 road loss at South Florida last year.  The Bulls weren’t afraid to run up the score on them, and the Owls won’t be afraid to run of the score this season to return the favor.  Temple won 46-30 in their last home meeting in 2016 as 6-point underdogs.  And this is the first time in recent seasons that Temple actually has the better team between these two.  They should have no problem winning by two-plus touchdowns here on Senior Day, which is also extra motivation for them. 

The Owls are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Temple is 8-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last three years.  The Owls are 9-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the past three seasons.  These last four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Saturday. 

20* SDSU/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +15 

This is the perfect opportunity to ‘buy low’ on San Diego State and ‘sell high’ on Fresno State.  We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bulldogs, who have been the best point spread team in the country over the last two seasons, going 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay a whopping 15 points to a San Diego State team capable of winning outright. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Aztecs, who are coming off the biggest upset loss of the week last week.  They lost 24-27 at home to UNLV as 24-point favorites.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Aztecs this week after seeing that result.  But there’s a perfectly good explanation for it when you read between the lines. 

San Diego State woke up Saturday morning knowing they could lose to UNLV and STILL win the Mountain West’s West Division title.  That’s because they saw Fresno State lose to Boise State Friday night.  That meant Fresno State was 5-1 within the conference, and San Diego State was sitting at 4-1.  So a win or loss didn’t matter.  The Aztecs knew that they could win the tiebreaker over Fresno State simply by winning this week.  And that’s the scenario. 

No question we are getting extra value here on San Diego State because they lost to UNLV last week.  And it’s value we’ll take advantage of.  This line probably would have been closer to 7 had they not lost to UNLV.  And I have no doubt we get a big effort here from the Aztecs in bounce-back mode with the division title on the line. 

San Diego State has actually gotten two huge pieces back recently from injury that will make them a tough out here against Fresno State.  QB Christian Chapman has returned to the lineup and has played in just four games this season.  He completes 67.3% of his passes, which is a huge upgrade over Ryan Agnew, who completed just 51.9% in his absence. 

The other huge player the Aztecs got back was RB Juwan Washington.  He has rushed for 674 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry in only six games this season, which means he has missed four games.  He is the most talented player on the entire roster and gives the Aztecs a fighting chance to pull this upset Saturday night. 

The Bulldogs still have the edge on offense, but I give the edge to the Aztecs on defense, and that gives them a fighting chance.  San Diego State is only allowing 20.7 points, 302 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 7.5 points, 83 yards and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages this season.  They have played a much tougher schedule than Fresno State has, too.  And keep in mind San Diego State won 19-13 at Boise State as 13-point dogs, while Fresno State lost at Boise State 17-24 as 2-point favorites. 

San Diego State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games off a loss by 3 points or less.  The Aztecs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  San Diego State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on field turf.  This line has gotten out of hand.  The Aztecs will come to play with the division title at stake, while the Bulldogs could suffer a hangover from that loss to Boise State last week.  Bet San Diego State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +44 

I always like fading SEC teams in this spot.  They step out of conference late in the season to face a non-conference opponent.  They are never motivated for these games, and they aren’t looking to run up the score, either.  They are looking to play their starters for a half before giving way to the backups.  It’s as easy as it gets taking the big underdog in these spots. 

My favorite SEC candidate to fade in this spot this week is LSU, though there’s plenty to choose from.  But LSU makes the best candidate because they don’t put up big numbers offensively.  Heck, I’d be surprised if they even score 44 points, which is what it’s going to take and then some to cover this 44-point spread. 

LSU is winning with defense, not offense this season.  The Tigers are only averaging 26.7 points and 362.3 yards per game on the year.  We saw LSU step out of conference earlier this season and only beat LA Tech 38-21 as 18.5-point favorites.  And that game is significant because Rice just played LA Tech. 

In fact, Rice actually led LA Tech in the second half on the road last week.  But they ultimately lost 13-28 as 23-point underdogs, easily covering the spread.  And they have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall as they have consistently been catching too many points.  They only lost by 19 as 23-point dogs at FIU and by 24 as 29.5-point dogs at North Texas.  They are once again catching too many points this week. 

The clock is constantly going to be moving, which will shorten the game and help Rice cover here.  That’s because both of these teams rely heavily on the run to move the football.  LSU averages 42 rushing attempts per game compared to only 28 passing.  Rice averages 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 31 passing.  It’s no surprise that both teams have won the time of possession battle this season. 

I also like the quotes I’ve read from Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren heading into this one.  “We can’t come out of the tunnel and let Death Valley or Mike the Tigers score points for them.  We’ve got to make them line up across from us, go toe-to-toe and earn everything they get.  And we’ve got to give it back to them.  That’s what I expect from our guys.  Nobody outside these walls believes we can do it.  We know we can.  So let’s go.  Let’s just go play football and enjoy every minute.” 

I guarantee you LSU doesn’t have that same mindset.  They think they can just show up and win, which they probably can, but not by 44 points.  And they’ll certainly be more worried about their road game at Texas A&M next week that will likely decide whether or not they will make it to a New Year’s Six Bowl.  Their concern is staying healthy and just getting out with a win, not with a cover. 

Plays against home favorites of 31.5 or more points (LSU) - after allowing 10 or less rushing yards last game are 35-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Rice Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5 

I cashed in Ohio State last week against Michigan State, and style points was the theme.  They took care of business in a 26-6 win as only 3.5-point favorites.  The Buckeyes need style points this time of year because they are 10th in the latest playoff rankings.  And they’ll be looking for more style points this week against Maryland. 

Let’s just look at the last four meetings in this series, and you’ll love Ohio State as much as I do this week. The Buckeyes are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, winning by 48, 59, 21 and 28 points.  They have won those four meetings by an average of 39 points per game.  And we’re only having to lay 16.5 with the Buckeyes this week? Sign me up. 

The reason Maryland struggles against teams like Ohio State is because they can’t keep up with them offensively.  Maryland is a run-first team that struggles against teams that can stop the run.  That was on display two weeks ago when they lost to Michigan State 24-3 at home, the same Michigan State team Ohio State just beat by 20 on the road. 

Maryland only averages 131 passing yards per game, but 235 rushing.  Well, Ohio State has been good at stopping the run this season as they give up just 143 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  The only teams that Ohio State has really struggled against are teams that can throw the ball, which includes their narrow wins over Nebraska and Penn State, and their loss to Purdue.  They won’t struggle against this predictable Maryland outfit. 

Maryland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards in their last game.  They ran all over Indiana last week and still lost 32-34.  Again, that’s the same Indiana team that lost by 23 to Ohio State.  The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams who complete 62% of their passes or better.  They are losing by 30.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Look for the Buckeyes to hang a big number on the Terrapins and cover this generous number with ease.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +20.5 

I usually look to fade teams the week after they play Alabama.  There’s usually a ‘hangover’ effect from the loss to the No. 1 team in the country.  Simply put, teams won’t be nearly as motivated against their next opponent.  And teams certainly are beat up physically from facing the Crimson Tide.  Such is the case for Mississippi State this week. 

I faded LSU in the same spot last week off their 29-0 loss to Alabama.  And they failed to cover as 14-point favorites against Arkansas.  And now I’m backing Arkansas again this week because they are once again facing the team that played Alabama last week.  They keep getting these good scheduling spots to close out the season. 

Quietly, Arkansas has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are just 2-8 SU on the season.  They are catching too many points every week, and that’s again the case here this week as nearly three-touchdowns underdogs to the Bulldogs. 

I’m not sure how Mississippi State is expected to cover three touchdowns when they have had a hard time even scoring three touchdowns.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have failed to top 28 points in any SEC game this season.  They are scoring just 11.2 points per game and averaging just 272.3 yards per game against SEC opponents this season.  Arkansas held LSU to just 24 points last week, and they should be able to hold Mississippi State to 24 or fewer, too. 

The Razorbacks have been respectable against the run this season, giving up just 155 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  That will be the key to their cover this week because Mississippi State is only completing 50.2% of its passes and is not known as a passing team.  The Bulldogs average 212 rushing yards per game, and that’s their strength.  They are very predictable. 

Arkansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games with a total set of 45.5 to 49 points.  The Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent over the last three years.  Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three years.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Razorbacks.  Bet Arkansas Saturday. 

20* TCU/Baylor Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2 

The books have been off on TCU all season.  They are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS this year.  Yet they keep getting respect from the books week after week.  And they’re getting too much respect again this week as only 2-point road underdogs to the Baylor Bears. 

Things have gotten so bad for TCU that they lost outright to Kansas as 13-point favorites.  They have completely fallen apart since losing to Ohio State in Week 3.  They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games since then and have failed to cover by a combined 101 points in those seven games!  Books haven’t even been close on this team. 

While TCU still has a respectable defense, though were forced for 52 points against Oklahoma and 47 against West Virginia.  But the defense isn’t the issue.  It’s the putrid offense that has been held to 17 points or fewer in five of their last seven games.  That’s just not going to cut it in the Big 12.  They lost starting QB Shawn Robinson to a season-ending shoulder injury on October 22nd, and then lost their best playmaker in KaVontae Turpin on October 23rd due to a suspension. 

I don’t even think TCU wants to make a bowl game at this point, they just want the season to be over.  The Horned Frogs lost 10-47 at West Virginia last week and looked to have quit.  We actually saw this a few years back in 2013 with the Horned Frogs as they finished 4-8.  Sitting at 4-6 on the season, a 4-8 finish is highly likely at this point. 

Conversely, Baylor wants to get to a bowl game.  The Bears are in the second year under Matt Rhule and have been one of the most improved teams in the country.  They sit at 5-5 on the season and one win shy of a bowl berth.  They’ll be highly motivated to clinch that bowl bid here at home Saturday instead of waiting until next week against Texas Tech. 

I was impressed with the way Baylor played against Iowa State on the road last week.  If they didn’t have struggles in the red zone and two missed chip shot field goals, they probably would have won that game.  They actually outgained the Cyclones 505 to 355 in that game, or by 150 total yards.  Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12, so putting up 505 yards on them is no small feat. 

The Bears received good news early this week when it was announced that QB Charlie Brewer wouldn’t be suspended for this game after getting ejected against Iowa State.  Brewer is completing 61.6% of his passes for 2,164 yards with 14 touchdowns and only six interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 223 yards and four scores.  He has really taken a big step forward as a sophomore this season, as has the rest of this team under the guidance of Rhule. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in conference games this season.  This is simply as obvious as it looks folks.  The Horned Frogs are once again getting respect from the books that they don’t deserve here.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

20* CFB Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +28 

I liked the fight I saw in Indiana last week as they beat Maryland 34-32 at home to keep their bowl hopes alive and improve to 5-5 on the season.  I look for the Hoosiers to fight again this week to try and knock off the big, bad Michigan Wolverines.  And they are catching 28 points to boot, so we have a ton of room to work with. 

We see this almost every season where a team gets ranked highly in the playoff rankings.  And with that high ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to.  Michigan failed to cover as 37-point favorites at Rutgers last week, and they are going to have to play a near-perfect game to cover against Indiana this week. 

You also have to consider the mental state of the Wolverines right now.  They don’t need style points, they just need to win out and they’ll get in the four-team playoff.  Plain and simple.  So they won’t be looking to pour it on here against Indiana, only to get out with a win.  And then you consider that Michigan will likely be overlooking Indiana and looking ahead to the huge showdown at Ohio State next week, and we are getting a ton of value here with the Hoosiers. 

Indiana hasn’t lost by this margin all season.  All five of their losses came by 26 points or fewer, including their 26-49 road loss at Ohio State as 27.5-point underdogs.  That game was much closer than the final score showed.  They only lost to Michigan State by 14, a Spartans team that was coming off a bye.  And they only lost by 5 as 14-point dogs to Penn State.  They have played the best teams in the Big Ten East tough thus far. 

Michigan’s offense only averages 422 yards per game.  Indiana’s offense averages 411 yards per game, which is 43 yards per game more than their opponents normally give up on average.  The Hoosiers have faced the gauntlet in terms of strength of opposing defenses, and they’ve bene able to score plenty of points to be competitive.  So they won’t be phased by this Michigan defense they are about to see. 

Michigan’s defense hasn’t faced many quarterbacks the caliber of Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey.  He is an accurate thrower who completes 67.3% of his passes, and he has some mobility as he has rushed for 266 yards and four touchdowns this year.  His escapability will be key here in creating some plays with his legs that Michigan doesn’t usually have to account for. 

Indiana also will be revenge-minded.  The Hoosiers have lost two of their last three meetings with the Wolverines in overtime, and the other was a 10-point road loss.  So they have played the Wolverines right down to the wire each of the last three seasons.  Plus, the Hoosiers haven’t lost any of their last seven meetings with the Wolverines by more than 24 points, which makes for a 7-0 ATS system backing them pertaining to this 28-point spread. 

Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 ATS off a win by 35 or more points as the coach of Michigan.  Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a blowout win by 35 points or more against a conference opponent as the coach of the Wolverines.  This is also a 100% never lost system pertaining to Harbaugh at Michigan in this spot.  Take Indiana Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota +3 

This game has everything I look for when seeking out a pick to use as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  We have one team who will be max motivated in Minnesota up against another team in Northwestern that is likely to just go through the motions.  And we’re getting the max motivated team as the underdog. 

The reason the Golden Gophers will be max motivated is because they sit at 5-5 and need a win to get to a bowl game.  And with a road game at Wisconsin on deck, this is their best chance to get it.  It’s also Senior Day for Minnesota here.  So they have every reason to want to lay it all on the line to win this game. 

Conversely, Northwestern just clinched everything with last week’s 14-10 win at Iowa.  They clinched the Big Ten West Division title, which means they will be going to the Conference Championship Game to face either Michigan or Ohio State.  And they clinched a bowl berth with their 6th win.   

I expect the Wildcats to fall flat on their faces this week as they don’t care one bit whether or not they win this game now.  They’ve been getting patted on the back all week at school and having everyone tell them how good they are.  They probably also partied more than usual this week leading up to the game.  It’s just not a spot where you want to be betting on the Wildcats this week. 

Plus, one of my favorite trends this season is that the underdog in Northwestern games is now 9-0-1 ATS on the season.  I used this trend last week when I backed the Wildcats as my 25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR.  And I’m using it again this week to fade them in this horrific spot.  Pat Fitzgerald knows how to motivated his team when they are the underdog, but not when he has expectations and he is favored. 

Northwestern was favored by 3 at home against Duke and lost 7-21.  The Wildcats were favored by 21 against Akron and lost outright 34-39.  They were favored by 3.5 against Nebraska and won 34-31 only after a last-second miracle, but failed to cover.  And they were favored by 20 at Rutgers and barely escaped with an 18-15 victory. 

Minnesota’s 41-10 win over Purdue as 11-point underdogs last week was one of the best performances of the season.  The Golden Gophers came into that game knowing they needed to beat Purdue and Northwestern to make a bowl, and step 1 is completed.  They held that high-octane Purdue offensive attack to just 233 total yards in the win. 

The Golden Gophers have a huge home/road split this season.  They have yet to win a road game, but they are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring their opponents by 14.9 points per game in the process.  And home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Minnesota is 24-9-2 ATS in its last 35 November games.  The Golden Gophers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an upset win as a double-digit underdog.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

Note: I know this line has flipped to Minnesota -2.5 as of this writing Saturday morning.  I still like Minnesota as a 25* up to -3 today.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat had yesterday off and now host the Lakers.  They should be more than 1-point favorites over the Lakers in this matchup considering the Lakers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 15-6 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Lakers.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -2 

The Colts are such a better team with Andrew Luck at quarterback that it’s like night and day.  They have been competitive this season and come in playing their best football of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, outscoring their last three opponents by a combined 49 points.  Yet they continue to get no respect as only 2-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans this week. 

The Titans looked awful through their first seven games this year.  They opened 3-4 with all three of their wins coming by exactly 3 points.  But then they had their bye week and have delivered back-to-back eye-opening performances, winning 28-14 at Dallas and 34-10 at home against New England.  No question those two results were impressive, but it also has the Titans now overvalued. 

And I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans.  We’ve seen several teams over the years have a letdown after beating the Patriots, and I expect that to be the case again this week.  Mike Vraebel and company put a lot of effort into beating their former team last week, including Dion Lewis, who was not shy with his comments after the game about how much the team wanted to beat the Patriots.  It’s only human nature for them to have a letdown the next week. 

Even after those two performances, the Titans are still scoring just 18.7 points per game on the season while ranking 30th in total offense at 299.0 yards per game.  This offense still isn’t any good, and it doesn’t stand much of a chance of keeping up with the Colts score for score.  The Colts are scoring 28.9 points per game while ranking 9th in total offense at 379.8 yards per game behind Luck.  And they’ve gotten some key playmakers back in recent weeks in T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack that will only make them even more explosive moving forward. 

The Titans are 1-9 ATS in last 10 road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The Colts are 48-27 ATS in their last 75 games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Tennessee is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Titans are 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indianapolis is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 November games.  The Colts are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Tennessee) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans -2.5 

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  They have reeled off six straight victories following an 0-3 start.  Yet they aren’t getting any respect from the books.  They are only 2.5-point favorites here in a great spot against the Washington Redskins, who are one of the most fraudulent 6-3 teams you will ever see. 

The Texans are coming off their bye week.  It was good timing because their defense has injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and at receiver where they could get some guys back that they were missing previously.  And they now come out of the bye playing with a ton of confidence due to the six straight wins.  I think they make it seven in a row Sunday. 

The Redskins have gotten to 6-3 with smoke and mirrors.  And last week’s 16-3 win over Tampa Bay was one of the most misleading box scores of the season.  The Bucs racked up 501 total yards and 29 first downs in that game and punted once, but managed only 3 points.  They held the Redskins to just 286 total yards and outgained them by 225 for the game. 

This is a similar situation to two weeks ago when the Falcons were coming off the bye and facing the Redskins.  They rolled to a 38-14 victory while amassing 491 yards.  So, the Redskins have allowed 496 yards per game on average in their last two games against the Falcons and Bucs.  Their defense is leaky, and their offense is now one of the worst in the league. 

Indeed, the Redskins are scoring just 19.6 points per game on the season while ranking 26th in total offense at 337.4 yards per game.  You just can’t win in this league consistently with those kind of offensive numbers, which is why there’s no way they should be 6-3.  And the offense is only going to continue to be poor due to all the injuries.  The Redskins are missing three starters on the offensive line, and they have a few others questionable.  They have also been playing without their top two playmakers in Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson, as well as receiver Paul Richardson. 

The bye also gave new receiver Demaryius Thomas time to get acclimated to the offense.  The Texans, who rank 14th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game while scoring 24.0 points per game, should only continue to get better on offense now with Thomas around.  And they could finally get fellow receiver Keke Coutee back from a hamstring injury this week. 

Defensively, the Texans have one of the best units in the league.  They are giving up just 20.4 points per game while ranking 9th in total defense at 336.3 yards per game.  JJ Watt is in line to earn Comeback Player of the Year as he’s back to being his former self.  And Jadeveon Clowney is also wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks.  Watt and Clowney will be licking their chops at the opportunity to get after Alex Smith while working against a Redskins offensive line full of backups. 

Jay Gruden is 2-9 ATS after allowing 14 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Redskins are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a tam with a winning road record.  Washington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following a win. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Texans Sunday.