Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Minnesota Twins -135

The Minnesota Twins are rolling right now after a slow start to get to 23-16 this season.  Their lineup is healthy outside of Miguel Sano and they are really raking.  The same cannot be said for the Royals, who are without their best hitter in Salvador Perez.  They are also without CF Michael A. Taylor and SS Adalberto Mondesi.

It's no wonder the Royals are struggling to score runs this season.  They are scoring just 3.7 runs per game overall and 2.8 runs per game at home.  It won't get any easier for them against Joe Ryan, who is 4-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in three road starts.

Ryan pitched 6 shutout innings in a 1-0 victory over the Royals in his lone start against them this season.  Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 games vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 1-9 in its last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Twins Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -128

Kyle Wright has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in seven starts with a whopping 50 K's in 42 innings and only two homers allowed.  Wright is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Marlins, pitching 12 shutout innings with 18 K's to boot.

He'll be opposed by Elieser Hernandez, who is 2-3 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Hernandez has already allowed 10 homers in 33 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and three homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves for a 7.72 ERA as well.

Simply put, the Braves should be bigger favorites over the Marlins today considering their big advantage on the mound.  Atlanta is 23-9 in its last 32 games as a road favorite.  Miami is 3-10 in its last 13 vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 65-31 in the last 96 meetings in Miami.  Atlanta is 47-21 in the last 68 meetings overall.  Roll with the Braves Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)

The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Washington Nationals 7-0 yesterday to improve to 25-14 on the season while dropping the Nationals to 13-27.  It should be more of the same today with a blowout win in favor of the Brewers due to their big advantage on the mound.

Brandon Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in the game.  He is 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Woodruff has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Patrick Corbin is 0-6 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in eight starts this season.  The Nationals are 0-8 in Corbin's eight starts with seven of those eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Corbin is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Nationals are 6-25 in Corbin's last 31 starts as an underdog and losing by 2.5 runs per game.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants -131

The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three straight and the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres by a single run each.  They'll be motivated to avoid the sweep against their hated NL West rivals, and I expect them to get the job done.

Mackenzie Gore is getting too much respect for the Padres.  He has faced such an easy schedule which is why is numbers are so good.  Gore has faced the Reds (twice), Cubs, Guardians and Braves which are four of the worst offenses in all of baseball.  This will be his toughest test to date, especially against a Giants team that is scoring 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

Alex Wood continues to get it done at a high rate for the Giants, going 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in seven starts this season.  And consider Wood has faced the much tougher competition.  He is 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres as well.

The Giants are 61-29 in their last 90 games as home favorites.  San Francisco is 4-1 in its last five games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Giants are 4-1 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Giants Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-109)

Death, taxes and the Tampa Bay Rays owning the Baltimore Orioles.  The Rays are 28-3 in the last 31 meetings with 22 wins by two runs or more.  It will be more of the same today with the Rays winning in a blowout due to their big advantage on the mound, at the plate and in the bullpen.

Corey Kluber is 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Kluber is 5-1 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Orioles.  He pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Orioles in his lone start against them this season.

Spenser Watkins is 0-1 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in seven starts this season for Baltimore.  Watkins is 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in four career starts against the Tampa Bay.  He has lost three straight starts to the Rays by 4 runs or more while allowing 14 earned runs in 15 innings.  Take the Rays on the Run Line Sunday.