Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Atlanta Braves -150

The Atlanta Braves are rolling right now going 5-0 in their last five games overall and 9-2 in their last 11 games.  The Braves also have the best run differential (+57) in baseball to this point, and they have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Washington Nationals.

Bryce Elder looks to finally be living up to his potential in his 5th season in the big leagues.  Elder has gone 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings with 23 K's.  Elder is 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six career starts against the Nationals.

Jake Irvin is 1-2 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 28 base runners in 19 innings.  Irvin went 9-13 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 33 starts last season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Atlanta has one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 2.81 ERA this season, while Washington has one of the worst with a 5.37 ERA.  Atlanta is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Washington.  Bet the Braves Monday.

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20* Timberwolves/Nuggets NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7.5

The Denver Nuggets have notoriously been great in Game 1 and terrible in Game 2 after winning in Game 1 at home.  They have actually lost four of their last five Game 2 home games outright after winning Game 1 of a playoff series.  I think they are ripe for the picking tonight.

The Timberwolves had it down to a 2-point game late in the 4th quarter in Game 1 before letting go of the rope in a 116-105 loss.  I think they come back with a better effort in Game 2, especially after Anthony Edwards shook off the rust from missing so much time down the stretch of the regular season.

The Nuggets got a favorable whistle in Game 1 and capitalized by going 30-of-33 from the FT line.  The Timberwolves went just 14-of-19.  I think the whistle will be a little more favorable for Minnesota in the rematch tonight, which will allow them to stay within this 7.5-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.  I also trust head coach Chris Finch to make the proper adjustments, which is something he has been great at in getting the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals in consecutive seasons.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Monday.

15* Raptors/Cavs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +9.5

Everything went Cleveland's way in Game 1 and they still only won by 13.  The Cavs shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and got a playoff career high 24 points from Max Strus.  I have to think they won't shoot that well again, and the Raptors will make some adjustments to how they defend Harden and Mitchell and not play as much drop coverage.

Immanuel Quickley sat out Game 1 with a hamstring injury.  He practiced on Sunday and there's a chance he returns in Game 2, but this line indicates he isn't playing.  Consider the Cavs were 8.5-point favorites for Game 1 and now 9.5-point favorites for Game 2.  That adjustment up isn't warranted in my opinion, and if Quickley does play this line will crash, but I don't think it goes any higher either way.

The Raptors went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Cavaliers in the regular season including two outright upsets on the road.  They won all three meetings by double-digits, so they clearly match up well with the Cavs even though it didn't show in Game 1.  I think it shows in Game 2 tonight and this one goes down to the wire.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night Line Mistake on Braves/Nationals OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 15-6-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 17 of those 22 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .256 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.37 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 110 2/3 innings this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.1 runs per game.

The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are capable of covering this total on their own against Jake Irvin, who is 1-2 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 28 base runners in 19 innings.  Irvin went 9-13 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 33 starts last season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Bryce Elder has been impressive for the Braves this season but is clearly due some regression.  He went 2-5 with a 6.52 ERA in 10 starts in 2024 and 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA in 28 starts in 2025.  His 0.77 ERA to this point in 2026 is unsustainable.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Nationals, who will do enough off him to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Rays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays are a dead nuts OVER team going 15-6 OVER in all games this season with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 21 games.  This total of 8 is definitely too short for a game involving the Rays right now.  They are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

The Reds have a pretty talented lineup that is starting to hit the ball well scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last nine games overall.  They have gone 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 12 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Reds right now as well.

Rhett Lowder was getting lucky in his first few starts but has regressed big time.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts, and this looks like it will be his toughest start of the season after facing the Giants, Marlins, Rangers and Red Sox thus far.

The Rays will make this a bullpen game with Jesse Scholtens getting the bulk of the innings.  The Rays have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.38 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Royals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Royals tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Kansas City.  Keep in mind they moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium so runs and home runs should be plentiful in KC all season, especially with the wind blowing out like it is tonight.

Kyle Bradish is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts for the Orioles this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 32 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Seth Lugo is clearly due some regression after opening 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts for the Royals this season.  Lugo has allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 hits in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Cubs OVER 7.5

This will be a series rematch from just a week ago when the Cubs and Phillies met in Philadelphia for a 3-game set.  They combined for 20, 14 and 13 runs as all three games sailed OVER the total, and it will be more of the same in Game 1 tonight.

Aaron Nola was rocked for 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Cubs on April 14th in Game 2 of that series.  Getting to see him again so quickly will be a huge advantage for Chicago hitters.  The Cubs are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.

Colin Rea has made one start and three relief appearances for the Cubs this season with a 3.63 ERA allowing 7 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.  Rea allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Phillies which resulted in 12 combined runs.  

Both bullpens have key injuries right now which will also be a factor.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings with 9 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Hawks/Knicks NBC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6.5

The Atlanta Hawks lost 113-102 at New York in Game 1 as 6-point dogs.  I don't think this adjustment up to 6.5 is warranted for Game 2, and I'll gladly take the value in this clear motivated bounce-back spot.

The Hawks shot 14-of-37 (38%) from 3 and 12-of-19 (63%) from the FT line in Game 1.  The Knicks shot 12-of-25 (48%) from 3 and 25-of-30 (83%) from the FT line.  No question the Knicks are not going to shoot it any better than they did, and if anything the Hawks are due some positive shooting regression especially from the FT line.

The Hawks are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games overall and were one of the best teams in the East down the stretch when they were healthy, which is what they are now heading into Game 2.  One of their losses came in a game they rested starters against the Heat, too.  And two of them came by 6 points or fewer.  I really like this Atlanta team and think this series is far from over.  They are live underdogs here in Game 2.  Bet the Hawks Monday.