Jack Jones

15* Warriors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pelicans rank 3rd in pace and 22nd in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 143-120 road loss to the Pelicans and 263 combined points.  They have gone for at least 232 combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Warriors just got Steph Curry back in the lineup last time out and lost 127-120 at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves for 247 combined points.  Their offense is so much better with Curry in the lineup, especially now that Pat Spencer has emerged for a playmaker for them to make life a little easier on Curry.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Blazers and Warriors with 244 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  They have combined for 258 and 250 points in their first two meetings this season.  This total of 234.5 is too short given the current state of both teams and the head-to-head history.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Hawks after a 142-115 road loss to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Detroit Pistons on Friday.  They had the previous five days off and were probably a little rusty.  I think we get their best effort here back at home tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after a 115-105 home win over the Indiana Pacers as 5-point closing favorites.  They trailed 102-100 before going on a 15-3 run in the final minutes in a misleading final.  I know because I had the Pacers +7.5 and it was a terrible beat.  But I'll get my money back here by fading them again.

The 76ers will be without their best player in Tyrese Maxey (31.5 PPG, 7.2 APG).  They are without Kelly Oubre (16.8 PPG), and Joel Embiid (20.3 PPG) is questionable.  Maxey had 44 points and 9 assists in a 142-134 (OT) home loss to the Hawks in their first meeting this season.

The Hawks have owned the 76ers going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It will be more of the same today without Maxey.  Bet the Hawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa UNDER 142

Iowa is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Hawkeyes rank 357th in adjusted tempo and 355th in average length of offensive possession at 19.4 seconds.  They are also 26th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 3-1 in Iowa's last four games overall combining for 105 points with Grand Canyon, 123 with Michigan State and 128 with Iowa State.

Western Michigan is in no hurry as well ranking 203rd in average length of offensive possession at 17.5 seconds.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, especially with Iowa dictating the tempo at home.  This total of 142 is too high as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Bulls OVER 243.5

The Pelicans are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those nine games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 135-132 home loss to the Spurs for 267 combined points and a 143-120 home win over the Blazers for 263 combined points.  Rookie Derik Queen had his first triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists against San Antonio.  Jordan Poole is now back, and Zion Williamson may return tonight which are two OVER players who are great on offense and terrible on defense.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

Now the Pelicans take on another dead nuts OVER team in the Chicago Bulls, who rank 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are coming off a 129-126 road win at Charlotte for 255 combined points.  That's a Charlotte team that was without both LaMelo Ball and Collin Sexton, two of their best guards.

This will be a rematch from a 143-130 home win by the Pelicans over the Bulls on November 24th for 273 combined points.  Seven Chicago players scored in double-figures, and eight New Orleans players scored in double figures.  It will be more of the same today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Chicago Bears -7.5

Note: My favorite way to play the Bears is in a 6-point teaser at -1.5 with the Patriots +7.5 or better at -125 or better.  Currently widely available at the time of this writing on Friday.

My lone concern with the Bears is this is a sandwich spot in between the loss to Green Bay last week and with the Packers on deck next week.  However, they trail the Packers by 0.5 games in the division now, so if they lose and the Packers win in Denver next week's game won't be for first place.  So they have to be motivated and focused to handle their business first, and I think they will be this week.

The Bears have gotten healthier the last couple weeks on defense and have proven what they are capable of when that's the case.  Two weeks ago they pulled the 24-15 upset in Philadelphia as 7-point dogs.  They dominated that game with 425 total yards while outgaining the Eagles by 108 yards.  They rushed for 281 yards on a very good Philadelphia defense.

The Bears were nearly as impressive in defeat last week losing 28-21 in Green Bay with a chance to win the game late before a INT in the end zone.  They were likely going for 2 and the win had they scored.  They were only outgained by 22 yards by the Packers, who I believe to be a Top 5 team in the NFL right now.

Leading receiver Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) sat out the Green Bay game with a foot injury.  He is expected back this week.  The Bears would be at full strength on offense if he returns as they are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have three LB's back from injury that they didn't have earlier this season in TJ Edwards, Noah Sewell and Ruben Hyppolite II.  They have CB's Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson back from injury now, and CJ Gardner-Johnson has been a great addition.  The only starter they are missing on defense is CB Kyler Gordon.

As much as I like the Bears right now due to their improved health, this play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Browns than anything.  Shedeur Sanders won his first start in Las Vegas against the hapless Raiders.  But their last two games were very concerning, and it's not exactly his fault, it's just that everyone around him is going down.  It's like he's being set up to fail.

The Browns lost 26-8 to the 49ers at home two weeks ago and were upset 31-29 by the Titans as 3.5-point home favorites last week.  Now they must hit the road where they are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season while getting outscored by 12.3 points per game even when you factor in that 14-point win in Vegas.

The injury report is brutal for the Browns, especially on offense.  They will be down at least three starters on the offensive line in RT Jack Conklin, RG Wyatt Teller and C Ethan Pocic.  LG Joel Bitonio is questionable, and LT Dawand Jones is on IR.  So they would be down the five starters on the O-Line they expected to have at the beginning of the season if Bitonio cannot go.

TE David Njoku suffered an injury last week that will keep him out this week.  WR Cedric Tillman and WR Malachi Corley are questionable, while backup RB Dylan Sampson is out.  Defensively, the Browns haven't been the same since DT Maliek Collins went on IR.  They are much more susceptible to the run without him, as evidenced by allowing 184 rushing yards to the Titans last week.  DT Adin Huntington and CB Denzel Ward are out, and DT Mason Graham is questionable as well.  They have one of the worst injury reports in the NFL going into this week.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

No. 2 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2123-1798 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $143,770! That includes a 1445-1192 Football Run over his last 2637 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25!

No. 1 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 624-494 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $75,180! That includes a 351-264 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

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15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Commanders/Giants OVER 46

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL especially in the 2H of the season.  The Giants rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.  The Commanders rank 28th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th at 382.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.

This Washington defense has now allowed at least 27 points in six of its last seven games overall.  They even allowed 31 points and 3 TD passes to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings stagnant offense last week.  Jaxson Dart and this Giants offense will hang a big number on them today, and they have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last eight games overall so offense hasn't been the issue.  Interim head coach Mike Kafka is the offensive coordinator so they have been all offense and no defense since he took over.

But this Giants defense has been pitiful, allowing 33 or more points in five of their last seven games overall and 24 or more in all seven.  Injuries are a problem without LB Thibodeaux and DE Nunez-Roches again today.  Marcus Mariota has actually been better than Jayden Daniels this season averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 per rush compared to 6.7 per pass attempt and 4.8 per rush for Daniels.  He will be without Zach Ertz, but the rest of his offense is healthy as he will have his top three receivers for basically the first time all season in McLaurin, Samuel and Brown.

I like backing OVERS between two teams who are out of playoff contention.  It tends to be a more relaxed game with offense over defense.  The Giants are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored by double-digits over the Raiders at home.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 309.4 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 341.6 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 32.2 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed in their last home game two weeks ago allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-26 SU when he doesn't.  It's also a terrible spot for the Eagles off a short week and off an OT loss in Los Angeles on Monday.  The fans are fed up with them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, and don't be surprised to hear the boo birds all game, which would make this almost a negative home-field advantage for the Eagles.

I think the Raiders will get a spark by starting Kenny Pickett instead of Geno Smith this week.  Pickett is a former Eagle that will relish this opportunity to go against his former team.  Smith is washed up and having the worst season of his career, so it can only be an upgrade.  I was impressed with Pickett in leading the Raiders to 10 points in the 4th quarter once he took over for an injured Smith.  He went 8-of-11 passing for 97 yards and a TD in that 4th quarter against Denver's elite defense.  His mobility makes him much tougher to defend than the statue Smith.

The Raiders have an underrated defense that ranks 16th in total defense at 325.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 5th in the NFL allowing just 3.9 yards per rush, so their biggest strength is stopping the run.  The Eagles rank 22nd at 4.1 yards per carry on offense.  That's big here because it is supposed to be very windy in Philadelphia today so this game will largely be played on the ground.  The Raiders will be able to hold up, and with scoring suppressed due to the weather conditions, getting 13 points here with Las Vegas is too much.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* Vikings/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER in all games this season with 44 or more combined points in all 13 games, and 49 or more in nine of them.  This total of 47.5 is very low for a game involving the Cowboys, especially at home indoors in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas' six home games this season have averaged 61.9 combined points.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.9 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game, 29th at 378.6 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense this week with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson good to go with their only starter out being LT Tyler Guyton, who they have been without for several weeks anyway.

The Vikings won the NFC North last season and as a result have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.  It has been a brutal schedule of opposing defenses that stands out more than anything.  After four straight losses to the Ravens, Bears, Packers and Seahawks, the Vikings finally got a reprieve last week.

The Vikings hung 31 points on the Commanders in JJ McCarthy's best game of his career with 3 TD passes and no picks.  I fully expect McCarthy and company to build off that performance and have another big game against this terrible Cowboys defense that just allowed 44 points to the Lions last week.  The Vikings are fully healthy on offense right now and McCarthy has some of the best weapons in the NFL, so he will be successful.

No question Minnesota has a good defense, but that defense has also benefited from a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses and playing in some poor weather in recent weeks.  Keep in mind the Vikings have recently allowed 27 points to the Ravens, 26 to the Seahawks, 24 to the Lions, 37 to the Chargers and 28 to the Eagles within their last eight games alone.  The Cowboys will get what they want against the Vikings, who love to play man-to-man coverage, and Dak Prescott kills that coverage.  The Cowboys will get a bunch of explosive plays in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and highly motivated for a victory that would put them in sole possession of 1st place in the NFC South surpassing the Tampa Bay Bucs with a win.  It's also a division game, so they need to secure the division record tiebreaker over the Bucs if they end up tied.

That's why I'm not concerned about them having a letdown following their 31-28 win as 10-point home underdogs over the Los Angeles Rams in the game going into their bye week.  The Panthers didn't have C Cade Mays, CB Jaycee Horn (5 INT) or LB Christian Rozeboom (91 tackles) in that win over the Rams.  All three are expected back this week, and now the Panthers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye and arguably THE healthiest.

The spot isn't nearly as good for the Saints.  They are coming off an upset 24-20 win at Tampa Bay as 7.5-point dogs last week.  That's a Bucs team that has now lost five of their last six games with their lone win coming by 3 over the Cardinals at home.  It's a Bucs team that was also missing a lot of key players due to injury and more got hurt throughout the game.  It's a Bucs team that went 2-of-7 on 4th down to pretty much hand over great field position to the Saints time and time again as well.

The Panthers also want revenge from a 17-7 home loss to the Saints on November 9th just a month ago.  That was a clear letdown spot coming off a 16-13 road win over the Packers as 13-point dogs the week prior.  They won't make that same mistake again here, not with what's at stake.  I fully expect them to put their best foot forward for this one.  It will be enough to win by a FG or more and cover this short number on the road.

The Saints have only won three games this season.  In their previous two wins, they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS following them losing by 6 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Patriots and by 14 as 1.5-point home favorites against the Falcons.  The Saints are 0-5 SU in their last five games against a team on extended rest, including 0-3 this season losing by 13.3 points per game.  New Orleans is 4-17 SU & 5-16 ATS as a home underdog since 2020, including 0-7 SU in their last seven games as a home dog.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with their sights set on earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  

Their three losses were all fluky as they led the Eagles by 19 in the 4th quarter and outgained them by 70 yards on the road.  They fumbled at the goal line going in for the game-winning score against the 49ers and outgained them by 49 yards.  And they were -3 in turnovers in a 3-point loss at Carolina.

The Rams have no weaknesses.  They are 3rd in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  The are outscoring teams by 11.7 points per game and outgaining them by 1.1 yards per play on the season.

The Rams are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.  Their defense is fully healthy with the exception of CB Quentin Lake.  CB Darious Williams returns to the lineup this week to help make up for it.

While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions, and I don't think Goff and company are capable of matching them score for score.  

No question Stafford, McVay and company have had this game circled.  They lost 26-20 (OT) at Detroit last year and 24-23 at Detroit in the playoffs two seasons ago.  They finally get the Lions at home this time around for the first time since 2021, which resulted in a 28-19 home win for the Rams in the first meeting between Stafford and Goff since the trade.  The Rams are going to want this one more to wreck Detroit's season.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 52.5

The Rams rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 373.2 yards per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of RG Rob Havenstein, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.

The Lions are nearly fully healthy on offense right now and showed what they were capable of last week when that's the case by hanging 44 points on the Cowboys.  As long as Jared Goff is indoors, he leads an elite Detroit offense that ranks 1st in scoring offense at 30.3 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play.

The Rams have a very good defense and will make life a little tougher on Goff than normal, but I still think the Lions will get to at least 24 points in this one.  What I am really counting on is the Rams scoring 30-plus with ease.  While Detroit is pretty healthy on offense, it's their lack of health on defense that has me fading them today.  

The Lions are decimated in the secondary without FS Kerby Joseph and his backup in FS Thomas Harper.  They are down to a 3rd-stringer at FS.  They will also be without SS Brian Branch, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week.  CB Terrion Arnold remains out.  No question Matthew Stafford is going to pick apart this short-handed secondary and hang a big number on the Lions.  It will be similar to last week when the Rams put up 45 points and 530 total yards on the Cardinals.  

The Lions are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in five of those six games, and 55 or more combined points in four of them.  The Rams have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games going for 59 combined points with Carolina and 62 with Arizona.  The books can't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.  

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Browns/Bears OVER 39.5

This total of 39.5 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in 10 of their 13 games this season.  They have gone for 39 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 369.7 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles two weeks ago, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They deserved 28 points against the Packers last week but were intercepted in the end zone on the final play.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 357.3 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Shedeur Sanders is giving this Cleveland offense some life with more of a downfield passing game to stretch opposing defenses.  Sanders threw for 364 yards and 3 TD in a 31-29 loss to the Titans last week.  He did everything in his power to win the game, but the defense let him down.  They allowed 184 rushing yards to the Titans, and the Bears are one of the best running teams in the NFL and will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.

The Browns have notoriously been much worse defensively on the road than they have been at home, too.  That has been the case again this season as the Browns are allowing 27.8 points per game on the road.  I think Chicago can get to 27 in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  With the poor weather, don't be surprised if there is a defensive or special teams TD in this one as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.