Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Guardians/Tigers OVER 8.5

There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Detroit Friday night to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  The Tigers rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Guardians have scored at least 5 runs in three consecutive games, including 7 in Game 1 yesterday.

It has been a rough start to his career for 25-year-old Slade Cecconi.  He is 2-9 with a 6.03 ERA in 18 starts and 10 relief appearances, allowing 73 earned runs and 21 homers in 109 innings.  The Guardians are giving him a chance to start, and I don't expect it to go well for him tonight.

Jackson Jobe has benefited from getting some of the best run support in baseball.  The 22-year-old is 4-0 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Jobe has allowed 18 earned runs and 57 base runners in 39 1/3 innings this season.  He has already walked 22 batters as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

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15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and with an average defense to boot.  The Knicks have their best offense in decades and that's a big reason they have made it this far.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Knicks and Pacers with 250, 243, 253 and 239 combined points at the end of regulation in the four OVERS.  I was on the OVER 223 in Game 1 of this series and cashed easily with 250 combined points at the end of regulation, and 273 after OT.  I'm back on the OVER 225.5 again in Game 2 as I don't think it is adjusted up enough.

The OVER is 6-2 in Pacers last eight playoff games going for 230 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  This 225.5-point total is very low for a game involving Indiana with how they play.  I expect them to hang another big number on the Knicks offensively, but the Knicks to get whatever they want offensively as well.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)

The Philadelphia Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven games overall with six wins by 2 runs or more and five wins by 3 runs or more.  While the Phillies are red hot right now, the A's can't do anything right going 0-9 in their last nine games overall with six losses by 2 runs or more.  They were just swept at home by the lowly Angels in their last series in four games.

It won't get any easier for the A's tonight having to face Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler.  He is among the NL Cy Young favorites right now going 5-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 80 K's in 64 innings.  Wheeler is one of the most reliable starters year after year in the big leagues.

Jeffrey Springs has not enjoyed pitching in hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park this season with huge home/road splits.  Springs is 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in four home starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs, 4 homers and 34 base runners in 20 innings.  Expect the Phillies to tee off on him again today to win this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Phillies Friday.

20* Dodgers/Mets NL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Dodgers and Mets in Game 1 of this series Friday.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Citi Field in a matchup of two of the most talented lineups in baseball.

The Dodgers rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.7 runs per game.  The Dodgers have scored a total of 168 runs in their last 24 games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  But the Dodgers rank 22nd in baseball allowing 4.4 runs per game with a banged up, poor staff.

Clayton Kershaw just made his season debut for the Dodgers and it did not go well for him.  Kershaw allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in a 11-9 loss to the Angels on May 17th.  I don't expect it to go much better for him tonight, and he will be on a pitch count again.

Griffin Canning is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball, and I expect the Dodgers to hit him hard tonight.  Canning went 6-13 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 31 starts for the Angels last season.  His 2.47 ERA is unsustainable especially with a 1.29 WHIP thus far for the Mets in nine starts thus far this season.  Canning is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in his last two starts against the Dodgers, allowing 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Cardinals OVER 8

This total of 8 is too low in a matchup between two of the most underrated, best offenses in baseball.  The Diamondbacks rank 5th in MLB scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Cardinals rank 7th scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks rank 24th allowing 5.0 runs per game.

Zac Gallen has been dreadful in his last two starts allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 22 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  It's worth noting he allowed 6 earned runs and all 4 of those homers to the lowly Colorado Rockies at home in his last start.

Miles Mikolas is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  He went 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals last season after going 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA in 35 starts for them in 2023.  He can't sustain this 3.77 ERA through nine starts this season.  Mikolas allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Arizona.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Reds OVER 8

There will be light winds blowing out to center in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park Friday night to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket.  The Cubs actually rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.9 runs per game.  The Reds are no slouches offensively scoring 4.5 runs per game this season.

Matthew Boyd has had a problem giving up the long ball for the Cubs.  He has allowed 6 homers in his last five starts and the OVER is 3-1-1 in his last five starts with 8 or more combined runs in four of those five games.  Boyd is 0-3 with a 9.69 ERA in three career starts in Cincinnati, allowing 14 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 innings.

After a great start to the season, regression has hit Hunter Greene here of late.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 6 homers in 18 innings in his last four starts.  Greene has allowed 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings in three career home starts against the Cubs.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Chicago.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Reds OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park Saturday to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.  The Cubs actually rank 1st in baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game.  The Reds are no slouches offensively scoring 4.5 runs per game this season.

The Cubs beat the Reds 13-6 yesterday for 19 combined runs.  It should be another slug fest today with these two average starting pitchers going against these two great lineups.

Colin Rea has allowed at least one homer in each of his last four starts.  Rea has allowed 4 homers in his last three starts against the Reds.  He allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, and 2 homers in 4 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.

Andrew Abbott is due some regression for the Reds.  He is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in spite of a 1.57 WHIP in three career starts against the Cubs.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 23 base runners in 14 2/3 innings in those three starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Dodgers/Mets NL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Dodgers and Mets in Game 2 of this series Saturday.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Citi Field in a matchup of two of the most talented lineups in baseball.  

It was a similar wind last night when the Dodgers beat the Mets 7-5 in extra innings for 12 combined runs.  The OVER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Mets with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those.  It should be another easy OVER tonight.

The Dodgers rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.7 runs per game.  The Dodgers have scored a total of 175 runs in their last 25 games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  But the Dodgers rank 22nd in baseball allowing 4.5 runs per game with a banged up, poor staff.  The Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game this season and capable of much more with their talent.

Tony Gonsolin will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Dodgers as he works his way back from injury after sitting out all of last season.  Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in four starts.  He allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in a 6-4 loss to the Angels in his last start.

David Peterson is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  He has a 2.86 ERA in spite of a 1.33 WHIP and 21 walks in 50 1/3 innings this season.  Peterson does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves ABC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves go from being 7-point underdogs in Game 1 to 8-point underdogs in Game 2 to 4-point underdogs in Game 3.  Usually there is a bigger adjustment for flipping home courts and the home team in desperation mode, but that isn't the case here.

The Thunder won and covered in both home games, so now is a good time to 'buy low' on the Timberwolves.  There is so much they can improve on that didn't go their way in those first two games, and I think they will put their best foot forward in Game 3 with essentially their season on the line here.

The Timberwolves shot just 15-of-51 (29%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They weren't any better in Game 2 going 11-of-39 (28%) from 3-point range, including 1-of-9 from Anthony Edwards.  They are a much better shooting team than they have shown thus far in this series, and they are due some positive shooting regression in Game 3 to say the least.

More role players should step up for the Timberwolves at home and they do have a solid 8-man rotation with very few weaknesses.  Julius Randle should be much better after going 2-for-11 from the floor with just 6 points in Game 2.  The Thunder shouldn't be living at the FT line like they have in the first two games at home, either.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Saturday.