Jack Jones

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Detroit Pistons +5 

The Detroit Pistons are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 15-5 SU & 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are also rested coming in playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

The Blazers have also been playing well, winning five of their last six games coming in.  However, they just lost CJ McCollum to injury.  And they’ve been able to beat the Pacers by 8 and Mavs by 8 at home without him, but the Pistons will be a different animal.  Look for Detroit to likely win this game outright, but we’ll take the points for some added insurance. 

The Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five gams vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

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20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5 

The Washington Wizards are still clinging on to hope of making the playoffs.  The team they are chasing is the Miami Heat, and they get a shot at the Heat tonight.  This is clearly a must-win game for the Wizards, and I fully expect them to lay it all on the line to get the victory at home Saturday. 

The Wizards gave a big effort on Thursday but came up short in a 5-point home loss to Denver as 8.5-point dogs.  They had yesterday off, and they also have two more days off after this game before embarking on a four-game road trip.  That’s another reason they should be ‘all in’ tonight knowing they have two days off after this. 

Miami is in a very difficult situation.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss at Milwaukee last night, and they’ll also be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  Making matters worse is the fact that they are expected to be without both Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder. 

Washington is 17-5 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season, including 13-3 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Washington is 22-13 ATS at home this season.  Roll with the Wizards Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +10.5 

I was in my home town of Des Moines Thursday watching games all day at Wells Fargo Arena.  I got to see Michigan State and Minnesota first-hand.  And from my takeaways, I’m convinced Minnesota is catching too many points tonight. 

First of all, it was essentially a home game for Minnesota as they had probably 3/4 of the fans in attendance.  They crushed Louisville 86-76 in what was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  That was a Top 25 Louisville team defensively, and the Gophers did whatever they wanted to, getting layup after layup and cashing in open 3-pointers time and time again. 

I have been really impressed with Minnesota here down the stretch of the season.  They beat Big Ten co-champ Purdue twice, topped what was a hot Penn State team, and also beat Louisville in four of their last six games.  And now they’re up against a Michigan State team that I think they can be competitive with today due to being without both Joshua Langford and Kyle Ahrens, and Nick Ward clearly isn’t 100%. 

I also watched Michigan State losing to Bradley for the majority of the game.  That was a 55-55 game late before the Spartans pulled away for a misleading 76-65 victory.  Bradley is not very good, and they had the Spartans on the ropes.  Like they’ve done many times here down the stretch, the Spartans won the game in the last few minutes.  And if they win today, it will be another nail biter against a Minnesota team playing its best basketball of the season. 

Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after four straight games where opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.  Plus, the Spartans were actually outnumbered by Bradley fans, so it felt like a home game for Bradley too.  This will 100% be a home game for the Gophers.  Take Minnesota Saturday. 

20* Auburn/Kansas CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Auburn -2 

The Auburn Tigers have now won nine straight games.  They are as hot as any team in the tournament.  And I think the fact that they only won by a single point against New Mexico State has them undervalued in the Round of 32.  They led that game by 13 late and the Aggies made a ferocious comeback in the final minutes, taking advantage of several Auburn turnovers.  It was a bad beat for Auburn backers like myself. 

The Jayhawks, conversely, are getting a lot of respect for their 34-point win over Northeastern.  While impressive, we cannot quickly forget their 12-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.  And Northeastern isn’t nearly as good as New Mexico State. 

The fact of the matter is Auburn is a much more talented team than Kansas right now in their current state.  The Jayhawks are still missing two of their best players, while the Tigers are fully healthy and loaded under Bruce Pearl.  The Tigers know this is their chance to do something special, and they won’t let Kansas stand in the way today. 

Kansas is 0-7 ATS in all Saturday games played away from home this season.  The Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Kansas is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Tigers.  Bet Auburn Saturday.