Mark Franco

Packers/49ers over

The Packers Adams recorded eight receptions for a franchise-best 160 receiving yards and two touchdowns and Aaron Jones also found the end zone on two occasions in Green Bay's 28-23 victory over Seattle last Sunday in the NFC divisional round. 

San Francisco features a three-pronged contingent of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida to lead its second-ranked rushing game. While Mostert had a 15-yard touchdown run in the first meeting with the Packers, Coleman had a pair of short scoring runs in the 49ers' 27-10 romp over Minnesota last Saturday in the NFC divisional round. Jimmy Garoppolo, who finished with just 131 yards passing, tossed a touchdown on the first drive and an opportunistic defense turned a pair of second-half turnovers into 10 points last week. 

Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games in January and is 5-1 in Packers last 6 playoff road games. Over is 7-2-1 in 49ers last 10 vs. NFC and is 6-2-1 in 49ers last 9 games as a favorite. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

I see both teams putting up points so over the total is the play.

Packers

Aaron Rodgers had a downright bad game in his previous encounter against the San Francisco 49ers, and that effort resulted in the last time the Green Bay Packers fell short on the scoreboard. Rodgers and the second-seeded Packers look to avenge a lopsided loss in Week 12 when they visit the top-seeded 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

The two-time NFL MVP was far from loose in the previous meeting, as he was sacked five times and limited to just 104 yards despite completing 20 passes in Green Bay's 37-8 setback to San Francisco on Nov. 24. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan wasn't interested in reliving that contest, telling reporters that the game had gotten away from the Packers and forced them to change their offensive approach. 

I just don’t see that happening again in this matchup as the Packers have put that game well behind them.

Packers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points and are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

I see the Packers keeping this game closer than most people think. Take the points.

Titans/Chiefs over

Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns while Ryan Tannehill threw for two scores in the first meeting versus Kansas City.

Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdowns and a season-high 446 yards in Week 10 while wearing a brace for a knee injury that had sidelined him the previous two games and prevented him from having one rushing attempt for the only time in his career.

Over is 7-1 in Titans last 8 games on grass and is 9-3 in Titans last 12 games overall. Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record and is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Back over the total in the AFC Championship Game!

Titans

The Kansas City Chiefs came up one win short of advancing to the Super Bowl a year ago, denied by the New England Patriots in a overtime defeat. The second-seeded Chiefs attempt to take that next step in front of their home fans when they square off with the sixth-seeded Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon in the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City earned a return trip to the title game with a dominating performance last week, erasing a 24-point deficit in a 51-31 blowout of Houston -- its seventh straight victory since a loss at Tennessee back in Week 10. 

Bruising back Derrick Henry and the Titans are trying to run the table and beat the top three teams in the AFC while bidding to become the third No. 6 seed to advance to the Super Bowl.

Tennessee is one win away from the Super Bowl thanks to the legs of Henry, the league's leading rusher who rumbled for 182 yards versus the Patriots before gashing Baltimore for 195.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid, in his seventh conference championship game, is 1-8 in his career against the Titans.

Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.

While KC may pull this game out there is just too much value here at over a touchdown to not back the Titans.