Matt Fargo

This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Friday Breakaway. We are going contrarian here in a game that is significantly more important. Minnesota has lost two straight games as it remains a point out of the second Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. It is not going to be easy as five of the final eight games for the Wild are on the road with every game coming against playoff contenders. Minnesota has actually been a better road team than at home and going back, the Wild are 19-6 in their last 25 games after scoring two goals or less in two straight games while going 25-11 in their last 36 games after two or more consecutive losses. Washington is coming off a home loss against Tampa Bay in overtime but the point acquired gave it a three-point lead over the Islanders and Penguins in the Metropolitan Division. The Capitals are 21-15 at home and are a bit overpriced here and they are part of a negative situation here where we play on teams coming off a loss by two goals or more to a division rival going up against an opponent off a home loss by one goal. This situation is 75-51 ATS (59.5 percent over the last five seasons. 10* (53) Minnesota Wild

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. San Antonio had won nine straight games before losing 110-105 to the Heat on Wednesday and is opening a three-game roadtrip with the Rockets. It was a surprising home loss for the Spurs as they are 29-8 at home and seven of those wins during the streak came there. They are just 13-22 on the road and the two victories were against Dallas and Atlanta, noncontending playoff teams. San Antonio has just three road wins the entire season on the against teams in current playoff positions. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Houston is also coming off a loss last time out as it lost in Memphis in overtime by a point. The Rockets have won seven of their last eight home games, the lone loss coming against Golden St. by a bucket. They are still chasing first and second place in the Western Conference as they are 4.5 games back but they have just a half-game lead over Portland for fourth place. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season with a scoring differential +3 to +7 ppg going up against a team that is +/- 3 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 53-29 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (510) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Friday NCAA Tournament Afternoon Dominator. With the way the seasons closed out in opposite ways for Iowa and Cincinnati, the public is all over the Bearcats in this matchup. Cincinnati is riding the momentum from winning the AAC Tournament that included an upset win over Houston in the championship game. Iowa closed the season with losses in five of its last six games but this is a very efficient offense as four of five starters average double figures in scoring and shoot 40 percent or better from the field. The Hawkeyes enter the tournament with the 15th best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country according to KenPom and are great at getting to the free throw line with free throw attempts accounting for 42 percent of all of its field goals, the 14th highest in the nation. Cincinnati's defense ranks 114th for putting opponents on the free throw line. The Bearcats also struggle to slow down spot-up shooters, a strength of Iowa. This season, the Hawkeyes scored 1.1 points per possession on spot-up attempts, placing them in the 95th percentile on these plays. Cincinnati's defense against these plays put it in the 78th percentile. 13 of the Bearcats games this year have been decided by five points or less. 9* (805) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the UC IRVINE ANTEATERS for our Friday NCAA Tournament Early Shocker. Kansas St. is coming off a surprisingly good season as it captured a share of the Big XII regular season championship with Texas Tech and despite the seeding variance here, the Wildcats got a bad draw. Kansas St. will be without second leading scorer and leading rebounder Dean Wade and his absence will be felt down low. This hurts even more with this draw. The Wildcats take a third of their field goal attempts near the rim and are terrible at those attempts at 51 percent shooting and just one point per possession, putting them in the 8th percentile in the country. UC Irvine, by comparison, is the best rim-protecting team in the nation, holding opponents to 44 percent shooting and 0.9 points per possession. The Anteaters enter the NCAA Tournament having won 16 straight games. At 30-5 they have one of the best records in college basketball. The vast majority of their wins came against other mid-majors, but UC Irvine did beat Texas A&M in November, as well as NCAA Tournament teams Montana and Saint Mary's. This was tabbed by the public as a possible upset and despite the conference differential, the matchup itself does in fact call for it. 9* (827) UC Irvine Anteaters

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our Friday NCAA Tournament Supreme Annihilator. Utah St. is one of just a handful of teams that come into the NCAA Tournament with a winning streak and it helps the Aggies out immensely. They took home the Mountain West Conference Tournament, although they avoided having to face Nevada, to extend their winning streak to 10 games. This is their first tournament since 2011 and the program has not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2001 when they beat Ohio St. in the first round so that momentum becomes even more important. The Aggies want to win with their up-tempo offense as they are tied for 39th in the country at 79.1 ppg. One of the ways they generate offense is by spreading the ball around as Utah St. is ninth in the nation at 17.1 assists per game. The Aggies went 3-2 against Quadrant 1 opponents, 2-3 versus Quadrant 2 foes and 22-1 against everybody else on their schedule. Washington made it all the way to the final game of the Pac 12 Tournament but the Huskies have had their issues recently. They are just 4-3 over their last seven games with all of those wins coming by no more than five points. The defense will have its hands full here as they struggled on that end during this recent stretch. 10* (812) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Friday NCAA Tournament Enforcer. The Hokies come into the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed, the highest in program history, so there are expectations. Starting point guard Justin Robinson will rejoin the Hokies after missing 12 games due to a foot injury. Virginia Tech went 7–5 in his absence while going 17-3 prior to his injury. Robinson was averaging 13.7 ppg and 5.2 apg and was a staple to the team so his return is perfect timing for the Hokies. There will be added motivation as after first-round exits in each of the last two tournaments, the Hokies want to shed the label of a team that can't win in March. St. Louis comes in with a NET Ranking of No. 103 so there is a reason this line is what it is. The Billikens won four games in four days to capture the Atlantic Ten Tournament but this is not a good matchup. The rotation is extremely thin and foul trouble could be a problem moving forward with just two offensive big-men. Though Dion Wiley is listed as the seventh-man in the rotation, he played more than six minutes in the Atlantic Ten Tournament one time. Technically, the Billikens are a six-man rotation team. 10* (824) Virginia Tech Hokies

This is a play on the DALLAS STARS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. We won with Pittsburgh on Thursday but it was not without drama as it took a shootout after a late blown lead to get it done. The game against the Predators was the fifth time in their past 14 games that the Penguins have blown a lead with four minutes or fewer remaining in regulation, and the game Thursday was their first win in those five games. They hit the road in comfortable position with a seven-point lead over Columbus which is the last team looking to get into the playoffs. This is a huge game for the Stars. Dallas sits in the top Western Conference Wild Card race despite going 1-2-1 in the first four games of this five-game homestand. The Stars head out on a four-game roadtrip after tonight so its four-point lead over Colorado and Arizona is far from safe. But Dallas is 19-4 in its last 23 home games off a loss against a division rival and here, we play on favorites that are revenging a loss of four goals or more, off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 44-11 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (76) Dallas Stars

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our NCAA Saturday Ultimate Underdog. Baylor is coming off a convincing win over Syracuse in the first round as it pulled away late for the nine-point win which snapped a four-game skid for the Bears. This is the biggest line for all of the 16 weekend games and we will take advantage of overpricing based on perceived Gonzaga dominance. The Bulldogs rolled through the West Coast Conference as expected but went just 2-2 in non-conference games and while one of those wins was against Duke, it was before the current Duke which was still trying to find its stride at the time. With a number this big, second chance points are key and Baylor has the edge here. The Bears rebound the ball extremely well as they are second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Baylor has pulled down double-digit offensive rebounds in 14 of their last 18 games. Gonzaga has struggled all season on the defensive glass despite having a size advantage in most games against lesser teams. 9* (851) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our NCAA Saturday Enforcer. The public is on Kansas, well, because it is Kansas being an underdog which rarely happens for the Jayhawks prior to the Sweet 16 and the near collapse for Auburn against New Mexico St. on Thursday. The Tigers are the favorites here despite two completely opposite performances in the first round but we are backing them here as Kansas will not get nearly the same lackluster effort that Northeastern put up. The Huskies came into that game as a proficient three-point shooting team but went just 6-28 from long range. Auburn presents the same style but do not expect a repeat performance of bad shooting. Defense presents another problem for the Jayhawks, in that Auburn leads the country in forcing turnovers, with opponents turning it over on 25.1 percent of their possessions. Kansas actually turned it over 12 times against Northeastern and if you extrapolate that against a much better defense, that spells trouble for the Jayhawks. 10* (849) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the WOFFORD TERRIERS for our NCAA Saturday Early Shocker. Kentucky can typically go a long way with its athleticism but it can only go so far. The Wildcats are already short-handed, and sophomore forward P.J. Washington, their leading scorer and rebounder, will miss the game with a sprained right foot, leaving them with a slim eight-man rotation. Against a small conference, this is a game they typically would win going away but that is not the case today. Wofford is legit. The Terriers are 13th in the NET rankings, won a school-record 30 games and have won 21 consecutive games. Their No. 7 seed is the best for a Southern Conference team since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The Terriers rank 62nd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are also one of the few teams that can battle Kentucky on the offensive boards. They do play in the So-Con but their non-conference schedule was legit so there is no intimidation here. 10* (843) Wofford Terriers