Michael Alexander

MLB Free Pick - Texas vs Detroit

Rating: 1 Unit

Kenta Maeda is on the hill for the Tigers here as he makes his fourth start of the season in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA, a 1.267 WHIP, five walks and 10 strikeouts over 15 innings of work on the year. Maeda didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Saturday in the first game of a doubleheader at home against the Twins. Tigers went on to drop that one 11-5 in 12 innings. Maeda makes his sixth career appearance, fifth start, against the Rangers in this contest.  Maeda is 2-4 with a 3.35 ERA, a 0.942 WHIP, nine walks and 49 strikeouts over 45.2 innings in eight career starts at Comerica Park.

Rating; 2 Units

The Cubs will have Jameson Taillon make his season debut on Thursday evening. Taillon was on the IL to begin the season. The veteran was outstanding two years ago but had a poor 2023 season, recording a weak 4.84 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP accompanied by an 8-10 record in 154.1 innings pitched. Taillon has dominated the Marlins in his career, holding them to only one run in 17 innings, equating to a minuscule 0.54 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He did not pitch against the Marlins last season.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the value of a bet on the Diamondbacks ML at roughly +150 odds. Webb hasn't been terrible, but he's put too many runners on base this season (17 in his last two starts combined). He isn't striking out a lot of batters, either (five or fewer Ks in all four starts). Arizona has plenty of offensive weapons and is averaging 5.7 runs per game. Given the Giants' struggles on offense, I don't expect Nelson to struggle much. San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last twelve games and is slashing .233/.307/.370/.677 vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Webb may be the bigger name, but I believe Nelson will hold his own. With early run support, he should last long enough to give his tired bullpen a rest. Besides, I'm not confident the Giants will have better luck against the D-Backs' pen. If anything, bettors should be wary of the home team's relief group (5.05 ERA).

Rating: 2 Units

Seattle will face Wild veteran goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. The 39-year-old Fleury was set to become a free agent this offseason, with questions swirling around about his future in recent weeks. Fleury and the team put an end to those questions when the netminder signed a one-year, $2.5 million extension for the 2024-25 season on Wednesday. Fleury is 17-14-5 with a 2.98 goals-against average and a .895 save percentage in 39 games (35 starts) this season. He ranks second all-time with 561 career victories, and he is one of only four goaltenders to appear in at least 1,000 games. Fleury has faced the Kraken seven times in his career. He is 5-1-1 with a 1.98 GAA and a .935 save percentage in those contests. Seattle could turn to Joey Daccord (18-18-11, 2.45 GAA) or Philipp Grubauer (14-16-2, 2.85 GAA) in net. Daccord has faced Minnesota twice in his career. He is 0-2-0 with a 4.52 GAA and a .842 save percentage in those games. Grubauer has gone up against the Wild 17 times. He is 9-7-0 with a 2.95 GAA and a .894 save percentage. This is the third meeting between the teams this season. The Wild won the first two contests on the road -- a 3-0 win on Dec. 10 and a 5-2 victory on Feb. 24.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat stole a win from the Bulls' clutches in last year's Play-In Tournament and robbed the Bulls of a chance at the playoffs. This season, the Bulls look like a motivated team heading back to South Beach. The potential loss of Butler for the Heat is far more significant than the potential loss of Caruso for the Bulls. While Caruso has been a solid distributor and reliable defender, Butler is the heart and soul of the Heat. Butler nearly carried the Heat to a title last year and his ability to isolate greatly enhanced the play of the Bulls role players. The Bulls will have to lean on Bam Adebayo if Butler is unable to go. He averaged 22 points per game in three games against the Bulls this season. The Bulls have two players that can drive their offense in DeRozan and White. DeRozan averaged 22 points per game vs. the Heat this season and will certainly benefit if Butler is unable to go and defend him. White averaged over 20 points per game vs. the Heat and will either be covered by a banged-up Terry Rozier, who missed the Sixers' game with a sore neck, or possibly Herro, a defensive liability. Chicago would be more exposed without Caruso against a team that plays at a high-level offensively but the Heat are not that team, certainly not without Butler. The Bulls will avenge last year's loss and move on to face the Celtics this weekend.

Rating: 2 Units

The surprising A's begin a three-game series and 10-game road trip when they face the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Oakland begins the series on a hot streak after winning seven of its past 11 games, including a 6-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. The Athletics will send rookie right-hander Joe Boyle (1-2, 5.68 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. He allowed one run on five hits and one walk over five innings in a 3-1 loss to the Washington Nationals last Saturday. Boyle, 24, went 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts with the A's last season. He is making his first appearance against the Guardians. Cleveland will counter with right-hander Triston McKenzie (1-2, 6.23), who is looking to bounce back after giving up six runs (five earned) on four hits and six walks over four innings in an 8-2 loss to the New York Yankees last Saturday. The 26-year-old McKenzie has struck out five batters and issued 12 walks in his first three outings covering 13 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

With former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes pitching for the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff recovering from shoulder surgery, Freddy Peralta has emerged as Milwaukee's staff ace. Peralta (2-0, 2.55 ERA) has been up to the task while striking out 26 batters and walking two in 17 2/3 innings in three starts. He will face a Cardinals lineup that is failing to generate much offense. The Cardinals have scored three runs or fewer in five straight games and in 10 of their past 11. While Peralta has been on point for the Brewers, Kyle Gibson (1-2, 6.16 ERA) has struggled for the Cardinals since signing as a free agent. He has allowed five homers in 19 innings over his three starts. Gibson took the loss in his last start on Saturday. He allowed four runs on six hits -- including Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s three-run homer -- and three walks in six innings against the Diamondbacks. Gibson is 1-2 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Jameson Taillon will finally make his season debut today when the host Chicago Cubs open a four-game set with the Miami Marlins. After a strong season with the New York Yankees in 2022, Taillon took a step back with Chicago in 2023, going 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA. He went 4-6 with a 4.62 ERA at home, and only one of those wins came before the All-Star break. Activated from the 15-day injured list on Thursday, Taillon (back) is 2-0 with a glistening 0.54 ERA in three career starts against Miami. Left-hander A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) will try to slow down Busch and the Cubs when he makes his fourth start of the campaign today. Puk had never started a game prior to this season, and he hasn't had a smooth transition into his new role. In each of his first three outings this year, Puk has lasted no longer than 4 2/3 innings, a mark he reached on April 9 in a loss to the New York Yankees. Puk yielded two runs (one earned) on four hits and five walks against New York. Puk is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in four career relief appearances against Chicago.