Mike Lundin

SUPER EARLY PREMIER LEAGUE PUNISHER - 7:30 AM KICK OFF

Norwich is all but doomed for relegation already with 10 points up to 17th place and only four games to go. They have dropped all five games since the restart and I don't see them showing up for this one either. As for West Ham, they stood up well in a 1-0 loss to Burnley last time out and they're in desperate need of points just three points clear of the relegation zone.

West Ham won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home, and I think they'll complete the season sweep here on the road.  

8* play on West Ham. 

UFC FIGHT ISLAND BOOKIE BLA$TER

I like Leonardo Santos to defeat Roman Bogatov in this UFC Lightweight division fight in UFC 251 on Saturday. 

Santos last fought a year ago when he knocked out Stevie Ray in the first round at UFC Stockholm to make it 17-3-1 in his MMA career with a 6-0-1 mark in the UFC. He has not lost a fight since 2009, and here he'll face a 29-year-old Bogatov who will make his UFC debut here after a successful spell on the M-1 Global circuit. 

While Bogatov is an undefeated 10-0 in M-1, I'm not sure he's ready for what's to come here against a 40-year-old veteran who knows the drill. 

Bogatov is a submission specialist who will try and get Santos on his back, but he might struggle to keep his Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist opponent down. Santos has a clear edge on the feet, and I'm happy to take the more well-rounded veteran at this price. 

8* play on Leonardo Santos. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (SOCCER) - PREMIER LEAGUE MAJOR WAGER TOP PLAY

Newcastle took a 5-0 beating by Manchester City last time out, and as they sit 15 points clear of the relegation zone the motivation for a bounce back game here against Watford might not be there. As for Watford, they are fighting tooth and nail for the right to play Premier League soccer next season as well. They enter the weekend only three points out of the relegation zone, and with some momentum after defeating Norwich 2-1 last time out. 

Newcastle has lost 10 of its 17 away games on the season while posting a dreadful 17-35 goal differential. I'm well happy to take the motivated home team at this price. 

10* play on Watford. 

SATURDAY AFTERNOON LA LIGA BANKROLL BUILDER

Betis defeated Osasuna last time out to move into 13th place, nine points clear of the relegation zone. With only three games to go, that's more or less mission completed as it is more or less impossible for them to get relegated at this point and I would not be surprised to see them come out flat in this game.

Atletico Madrid on the other hand still has a lot to play for as they are tied for points with Sevilla for third place. They are unbeaten in 13 straight La Liga games and 11-5-1 with a 26-10 goal differential at home on the season.

8* play on Atletico Madrid -1. 

SUNDAY MORNING SERIE A NO BRAINER

Both teams are facing the threat of relegation, but only Genoa has a realistic shot IMO. 

Spal sits dead last (20th) in the standings with eight points up to 18th-placed Genoa who in turn is one point behind Lecce, the closest team outside the relegation zone. 

With only seven games to go, the Spal players must realize they have an almost impossible mountain to climb and the team has not looked particularly motivated lately, coming off back-to-back 3-0 losses. 

Genoa on the other hand put up a decent fight in a 2-1 loss to Napoli last time out, and they have picked up four of their six wins on the season here at home while Spal has lost 12 of 16 away games. 

8* play on Genoa. 

FIGHT OF THE MONTH - UFC 251 MAIN EVENT - TOTAL ROUNDS

I think we'll see an evenly contested fight, likely to go the distance, when Kamaru Usman clashes with Jorge Masvidal in the UFC 251 Fight Island main event on Saturday. 

Usman is a perfect 11-0 in the UFC and the reigning Welterweight division champion. He is a well-rounded fighter who is riding a 15-fight win streak and won his last fight by TKO in the 5th round when he defended his title against Colby Covington back in December of 2019.

As for Jorge Masividal, he owns an MMA record of 35-13, 12-6 in the UFC. He has won three straight fights and defeated Nate Diaz by TKO in November of 2019 in his last fight. 

While Masvidal is coming in on short notice as a replacement for Gilbert Burns who tested positive for COVID-19, keep in mind that Usman will also need to adjust his gameplan. 

Additionally, this is a fight Masvidal has been looking forward to for a long time and he has reportedly never stopped preparing for a potential scrap opposite Usman.

"It’s short notice, because he didn’t have the contract signed, but let me tell you what: This guy was there my whole training camp," Dustin Poirier said on "THE FIGHT with Teddy Atlas." "He was my main sparring partner. We probably put in five weeks of sparring together. He flew in wrestlers, the best wrestlers in the world."

I think the bookmakers have juiced up the moneyline on Usman too much because of the short notice change, but he is undoubtedly the better fighter. That being said, while Usman is likely to dictate the fight, he will most likely find it tough to break through Masvidal's excellent defense, and I like the over in this bout. 

10* play on OVER 4.5 (you'll find Over 3.5 at about -115 at some books which also is a good bet). 

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PREMIER LEAGUE MONEYMAKER - 09:15 AM KICK OFF

Crystal Palace is safe from relegation and has nothing to play for at this stage of the season. That fact has reflected itself in recent performances resulting in 11 goals conceded through four consecutive losses. Here Palace comes up against an Aston Villa team that desperately needs a win to have any chance of climbing out of the relegation zone.

Aston Villa has only seven wins of the season, but five of those came at home and I expect the home team to come through in this one.

8* play on Aston Villa.