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Dave’s Friday Free Play:

1* on Iowa State +2

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones should not be underdogs to the Texas Longhorns today.  They have been the best team in the Big 12 all season with their only loss coming by 3 points to Oklahoma State.  And their numbers are way better than that of Texas this season.  The Cyclones are outgaining their opponents by 104 YPG behind a defense that yields just 333.9 YPG.  Texas is only outgaining opponents by 36 YPG and its defense gives up 400.9 YPG.  The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 35 or more points in a win over a conference opponent.  Iowa State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  Tom Herman is 0-8 ATS in home games with a total of 56.5 to 63 as the coach of Texas.  Take Iowa State.

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1* Free Pick on Texans/Lions over 50½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #192 Over in Maryland Terrapins @ Indiana Hoosiers (12p.m., Saturday, November 28 ESPN2) Indiana’s dream season came down to earth last week with a 7-point loss to Ohio State. They now cannot make the Big 10 Championship Game but still have an explosive offensive that will score close to 40 points in this game. Maryland is back on the field after two weeks off for COVID-19 issues. They have scored 40 points per game over their last two and if they hit the high twenties int his game it should easily go over the posted total. These two teams have played over the posted total in 5 straight games. Indiana has gone over the posted total in 20 of their last 28 Big 10 games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card highlighted by a top play winner on Saturday. 

draw +199

Girona 1

Alcoron 1

The total is set at 2 so they are expecting a low score. I think it ends 1-1. This match takes place in South America on Friday.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on UCF/USF OVER 67

UCF games have averaged over 72 points per game this season.  They have an explosive offense that puts up 42.6 points and 586.6 yards per game.  And they run at one of the fastest tempos in all of college football.  South Florida will oblige with a defense that gives up 37.6 points per game.  But their offense should have some success against a UCF defense that gives up 452.1 yards per game.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in South Florida’s last five games overall with combined scores of 67 or more points in four of them.  The OVER is 4-1 in Knights last five road games.  Give me the OVER.

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The set-up: If you don't mind laying the price, I think that Dallas on the "money-line" is worth a second look on Thursday afternoon. This is a revenge spot after a poor setback in Washington earlier in the year. It's a huge game as far as the standings are concerned in the NL "L-East." The Cowboys enter off a big win over Minnesota and there's no reason not to think they can't carry that momentum over here at home. 

The picks: The short week favors the home side as well. The Washington Football team beat the Bengals 20-9 at home. Alex Smith earned an important victory, but Washington is still 0-4 against the spread on the road this year. As mentioned off the top, I think the Cowboys on the money-line is worth a second look on Thursday afternoon.

This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the COWBOYS MONEY-LINE.

Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Wyoming -16

The Wyoming Cowboys are better than their 1-2 record would indicate.  They have road losses to Nevada and Colorado State.  But they are outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 yards per game this season.  And they are ready to get back on the field after being off since November 5th.

They should make easy work of the rebuilding UNLV Rebels, who are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS this season.  All four losses have come by 13 points or more and by an average of 19.0 points per game.  The Rebels are getting outgained by an average of nearly 160 yards per game on the season with a terrible defense that gives up 36.3 points and 466.3 yards per game.

Wyoming beat UNLV 53-17 at home last year.  They racked up 374 rushing yards on the Rebels and it should be more of the same this season.  I think Wyoming is better than it was last year, and UNLV is clearly worse off with a new head coach and only 12 returning starters.

The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Rebels are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home underdogs.

Plays on road favorites of 14.5 or more points (Wyoming) - after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

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The comp play is an advance totals play for Saturday on the Under in the Troy St vs Appalachian St game in college football. This game fits a powerful totals system. The last 2 years these 2 have gone under. App St has a powerful defense and has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games. Troy has stayed under in 10 straight games. Look for this game to be lower scoring. Play Troy and Appalachian ST Under the total. Rob V- GC Sports.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 11/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Looking ahead to the action on Thanksgiving Thursday, the last play on my cut list is the New Mexico-Air Force Over the Total. New Mexico (0-4) remained winless in four games on Friday with their 28-0 shutout loss at Air Force. But the Lobos have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. New Mexico surrendered 356 rushing yards in the loss to the Falcons — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in New Mexico’s last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Utah State (0-4) is also winless after suffering a 35-16 loss to Fresno State two Saturdays ago on November 14th. The Aggies have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Utah State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total at home. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports was on a NEAR PERFECT 5 of 6 (83%) CBB run last March before the stoppage — Frank DELIVERED his 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Total of the Year on that final March 11th day of action to further both his 102 of 166 (61%) CBB TOTALS TEAR along with a RED HOT 12 of 17 (71%) CBB Game of the Year/Month Totals mark! Now Frank TIPS OFF his 2020-21 CBB campaign with his 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Month for the UCLA-San Diego State O/U winner at 10:30 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and DON’T MISS OUT!

Deshaun Watson is reason enough to back the Texans here. Watson is one of the five best QB's in the NFL right now. But the Lions are worth a fade all by themselves.

The Lions have lost their last three Thanksgiving games. Their best player is punter Jack Fox. 

The Lions were missing their two best wide receivers, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola, plus their top running back, D'Andre Swift, this past Sunday. Matthew Stafford is dealing with a thumb injury. The result was a 20-0 loss to the Panthers, who were missing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater, star RB Christian McCaffrey and have a mediocre defense. The Lions managed just 185 yards and 3.4 yards per play. This being a short week for Detroit doesn't bode well for those key skill position players returning. 

The Lions have never bought into Matt Patricia. The Lions have a long and sad history of bad coaches. Patricia can proudly take his place among them. He makes Jim Caldwell look like Vince Lombardi. Patricia would have to win 23 games in a row to match Caldwell's winning percentage. That's how bad Patricia is. 

Detroit has failed to cover 15 of its last 21 games and is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times as a 'dog. There's the possibility the Lions fire Patricia if Detroit loses this nationally televised game, their lone prime time game of the year. Lions players probably wouldn't mind that happening. So Detroit motivation could be lacking. 

Houston is a highly flawed team. But the Texans remain dangerous - as the Patriots found out - because of Watson. The Texans' 3-7 record is misleading due to the brutal schedule they've played with six of their defeats coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, Packers and Browns. Those six opponents have a combined record of 46-14. Watson should be in line for a huge game. The Lions are 28th in scoring defense. They had just one sack and one QB hit in last week's game against an inexperienced backup QB who dropped back 34 times. 

The Texans have stepped up their game and improved morale since the egregious Bill O'Brien was canned. I trust Watson and the Texans far more than Patricia and Detroit especially during a short week with the Lions so banged-up.

Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.

While this line has flipped since opening, I still believe there's some value backing the Texans as they head to the Motor City to face the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Houston has actually looked like a respectable football team since kicking head coach Bill O'Brien to the curb earlier in the season. Here, it draws another favorable matchup against a Lions squad that probably isn't quite as good as its four-win record indicates. Detroit doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks with any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as it tries to contain QB DeShaun Watson and an improving Texans offense. Meanwhile, Lions QB Matt Stafford will continue to play without his favorite target in WR Kenny Golladay. Coming off a shutout loss on the road against Carolina, Detroit should be in line for a bounce back here but its track record on Thanksgiving Day certainly isn't favorable. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right installing the Texans as the short road favorite. Take Houston (8*).

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