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1* Free Play on TCU -8½ -110

The Southern Methodist Mustangs (3-0) will face the team’s first ranked opponent as they go on the road to play the #25 TCU Horned Frogs (2-0) in Fort Worth.

You won’t find a loss on the record of SMU after three straight victories to open the season, although none came against particularly good competition. Nonetheless, the Mustangs are scoring 44 points per game while allowing just 25.

Despite three picks on the year, SMU quarterback Shane Buechele has looked good with 871 yards and five touchdowns. The arm of Buechele has paired well with the Mustangs’ ground game, led by the 291 yards and seven touchdowns of senior running back Xavier Jones.

SMU will need Buechele to protect the ball better than he has if they’ll pull the upset over TCU.

The toughest game for the Horned Frogs thus far has been Purdue – a game which TCU won by a score of 34-13. Laying 8.5 points, the Horned Frogs will need its defense, which has held opponents to just 209 yards per game, to maintain its great form.

With sub-par production from quarterback Max Duggan (235 yards, two TDs, zero picks), TCU will need another big game out of running back Darius Anderson. Against Purdue, Anderson ran for 179 and two touchdowns.

1* Free NCAAF Pick on Miami-OH RedHawks+39½ -110

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the RedHawks in Saturday's showdown in Columbus against the No. 6 ranked Ohio State. 

A lot of people thought the Buckeyes would struggle against their old coordinator in Luke Fickell when Ohio State hosted Cincinnati in Week 2. That didn't happen. Buckeyes won 42-0 as a 14.5-point favorite. Same thing last week. People thought they would struggle at Indiana. They won 51-10 as a 17.5-point favorite. 

Now the Buckeyes host Miami (OH), who just lost by 23 at Cincinnati. They won't blink an eye here. To them Ohio State should win by 40 easy. They probably could, if they wanted to. That's the key here. 

This is the ultimate letdown spot after getting up for their first 3 games, even though they were a big favorite in Week 1, teams seem to get up for Lane Kiffin's FAU squad. They also have a big time road game on deck against a Nebraska team people can't stop talking about.

This is the ideal spot for Ryan Day to get the starters out early and ready for the Big Ten portion of the schedule. As for Miami (OH), they got a bunch of kids who dreamed of playing for Ohio State. This not just another game for them. I think they do enough here to lose by fewer than 40. 

There's also a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Buckeyes. Favorites of 31.5 or more points who are a strong offensive team (5.8+ yards/play), who have outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards are 4-23 (15%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami (OH)! 

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*3 Star Free Pick* The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly a much better team than the Old Dominion Monarchs. I'm not here to argue against Virginia. In fact, I have Virginia over 7.5 season wins this year, and I'm high on this Virginia team. What is that makes me want to fade them here? This is a sandwich spot for Virginia.

The Cavs are coming off a very emotional win against Florida State. The Cavaliers locker room was extremely fired up after that win. Virginia goes to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish next week. They know Old Dominion isn't very good, and it doesn't prove much to run up a big score against the Monarchs.

Bryce Perkins is a star quarterback for Virginia. He should play here, but he is dealing with a minor injury and I would think the Cavs want him to take a few less hits and likely get out of this game early. 

With a total in the mid 40's, this is an extremely high line. I'll take the dog with the large amount of points.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Michigan +3½ -105

My money is on the Wolverines to cash in a cover here as a 3.5-point road dog against the Badgers. I think we are seeing a huge overreaction here based on the first couple of games. I not only think Michigan covers, but I like them to win outright here rather easily. Wisconsin is a run first team with an inexperienced QB. They aren't going to be able to run at will against Michigan like they have in their first two games against cupcakes. I also think people are overreacting to the Wolverines near loss to Army. The Black Knights are no pushovers and not an easy team to play against or prepare for. Last year Army went into Norman and took Oklahoma to OT and the Sooners ended up in the college football playoff. Bet Michigan +3.5! 

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10* FREE NFL PICK (Cardinals +2.5)

I'll take my chances here with Arizona at basically a pick'em at home. I got on this line before it swapped sides, but I still highly recommend the Cardinals in this spot. I just think after everything the Panthers went through last year in that awful 2nd half collapse, it's going to be hard for them to deal with another Cam Newton injury.

Kyle Allen had a decent game in his only start last year at New Orleans, but that came in Week 17 with the Saints resting their starters. He threw for 228 yards and 2 scores, but that's not saying much given the circumstances. 

I was really high on this Arizona team and I've seen enough out of Kyler Murray to believe they made the right call there. Murray is only going to keep getting better with each start. Panthers secondary is definitely the weak link of that defense. I just don't see Allen being able to keep pace with Murray in this one. Give me the Cardinals +2.5! 

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Appalachian State at North Carolina 3:30 ET

Mountaineers (+) over Tar Heels- Can't see how the rejuvenated Mack Brown squad can be 'up' for this one after after opening with wins over South Carolina and Miami-Fl before falling to Wake Forest. Each season there always seems to be a game where Appalachian State gets a chance to battle and FBS Big-5 school and they always seem to be ready to pull the upset as they are here. The Mountaineers have had two weeks to prepare and saw close hand what the Tar heels have as the observed the Deacons win. Take APPALACHIAN STATE! 

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ASA PLAY ON Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-) over Wyoming Cowboys, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #370

Tip off here. The team that is 1-2 is favored by a FG (or -3.5) over the team that is 3-0 on the season. Wyoming’s 3-0 record is as deceiving as you’ll ever see. They have been outgained in all 3 games by a combined 315 yards! That includes their game last week vs FCS foe Idaho. It was a game that had the Cowboys favored by 4 TD’s and barely held on to win 21-16. Idaho actually had the ball inside the Wyoming 20-yard line with under 4:00 remaining and came away with no points. That’s the same Idaho team that lost 79-7 @ Penn State this season. The only road game this year for the Cowboys was a 23-14 win @ Texas State. It was a game in which Wyoming was outgained by 151 yards and had 11 fewer first downs. TSU led the game from start until 8:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd when the Cowboys returned an interception for a TD giving them a 20-14 lead, their first of the game. Texas State was the better team in that game despite the loss. Keep in mind this is a Bobcat team that has just a 7-33 record their last 40 games. The point is, Wyoming has played one of the worst FBS programs and an FCS team their last 2 games and could have and maybe should have lost both. Tulsa, on the other hand, is 1-2 but we feel they are undervalued because of that. Their losses have come at the hands of Michigan State and Oklahoma State, two of the better programs in the nation. The Hurricanes rush numbers, both offensively and defensively, are massively skewed. They are not impressive looking as a whole. However, they held 2 of their 3 opponents to 115 yards rushing or less but struggled to slow down Oklahoma State, one of the top running teams in the nation. Offensively they rushed for 160 yards vs Oklahoma State and 256 yards vs San Jose State. The problem is, Michigan State, #1 in rush defense nationally last year and #2 so far this year, held them to a negative 75 yards rushing (sacks included). They face a Wyoming team on Saturday that can’t pass at all. They average 6 completions per game. That’s it. We expect Tulsa to slow down their rushing attack which will make it very tough for the Cowboys to score. Tulsa is much more diverse offensively and they have an experience QB, Zach Smith, who can move the ball through the air if needed. This is a huge home game for this underrated Tulsa team going into their bye before starting AAC play. Lay the small number. It should be higher in our opinion.

Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 9-21-19

Mississippi State -6 -104

Pure Lock has a TOP CFB play available on Saturday on the 
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R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 9-21-19

UNDER 55.5 -113 SMU/TCU

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Play - Louisville (Game 393).

Edges - Cardinals: Head coach Scott Satterfield 19-11 SU and 18-12 ATS away in his career, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 AST when coming off an ATS win … Seminoles: Host in this series is 0-3 ATS … With FSU having been outgained in 10 of its 15 games under head coach Willie Taggart, we recommend a 1* play on Louisville.  Thank you and good luck as always. 

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Syracuse -4.5 1.1% Free Play

No time for Syracuse to be sad about their loss against Clemson with Western Michigan coming in after a 57-10 win last week against Georgia State. Syracuse needs a win here after starting 1-2, and I don’t see them looking past Western Michigan, a team that gave them a battle last year in their own stadium.  However, this is a classic sell high buy low situation. Western Michigan just blew out Georgia STate, but it’s a bit misleading considering Georgia State had 3 turnovers and a turnover on downs in the red zone.

The ACC has not been good to start the year, but the MAC is just 4-16 ATS the last two weeks, and Western Michigan just gave up 51 points to Michigan State 2 weeks ago.  Syracuse meanwhile beat Liberty on the road in week 1 24-0, and that win all of a sudden looks better after LIberty beat a respectable MAC team 35-17 in Buffalo. The biggest key here for me is the fact that Syracuse can get the running game going again, and not rely on Tommy Devito to do everything here.  Western Michigan has allowed over 200 yards rushing and 5 yards per carry to its last two opponents, and Syracuse ran for 334 last year. I trust Dino Babers, and I think they step up and win this game by double digits.

Mikey Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 9-21-19

Tulsa -3 1/2 -107

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Dave’s Saturday Free Play: 

1* on UCLA +19 

The Key: The UCLA Bruins have played one of the toughest schedules in the country, which is a big reason why they are 0-3 right now.  They faced Cincinnati and Oklahoma as underdogs, and were upset by a pesky San Diego State team.  They have played the 21st-most difficult schedule thus far.  Washington State is 3-0, but they’ve played the 190th schedule.  Their wins have come against New Mexico State, Northern Colorado and Houston.  They were fortunate to escape Houston with a 31-24 win.  UCLA is a team that improved as the season went on.  I think that will be the case again this year for this young team.  And I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Bruins here catching 19 points to the Cougars.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take UCLA.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Washington -6.5 

BYU was a 5-point home underdog to USC last week.  Now they’re only 6.5-point home underdogs to Washington.  If Washington and USC were to play on a neutral, that means the line would be Washington -1.5.  I’d have one of my largest wagers of the season on the Huskies if that was the case.  I still believe they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12, and I think that one-point loss to Cal will have them undervalued in the immediate future.  They came back and beat Hawaii by 32 as 22-point favorites last week.  So they basically didn’t have to exert much energy.  So they’ll have a lot left in the tank here against a BYU team that is coming off back-to-back overtime wins over Tennessee and USC.  I think the Cougars run out of gas here against a Washington team that beat them 35-7 last year.  Give me Washington.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #374 Kansas Jayhawks over West Virginia Mountaineers (4:30p.m., Saturday, September 21 ESPN+) The wrong team is favored in this game and the Les Miles magic will continue for another week. The Jayhawks are coming off their first road win against a Power 5 team in forever and expect them to follow that up with another winnable home game against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is 0-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card highlighted by top play on Saturday.

The set-up: Drew Brees is out for the Saints. Teddy Bridgewater is in. The Seahawks are 2-0 after an upset road victory at Pittsburgh last weekend and with a date vs. the co-division leading Rams in Week 4, I believe the home side lays everything on the line this week in order to secure the 3-0 start. The Saints are reeling now, but the offense looked terrible last week before Brees went down anyways. I don’t foresee anything changing in a week and with the major change at the QB position. 

The pick: Seattle has been getting consistent play on both sides of the ball and Russell Wilson and company are now licking their chops to get a shot at this suspect New Orleans’ secondary. Note that the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their last four anyways after a loss by ten or more points, while Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a victory by six points or less. Consider the home side in this one.

Oh how the mighty have fallen, as Taggarts Florida States looks to be a undisciplined shambles. Taggart's team is one of the worst in all of college Football for incurring penalties and that indirectly becomes a situation that facilitates their down trending projections in my power rankings. I know that Louisville's QB Jawon Pass may not start because of a nagging foot injury, but Malik Cunningham his backup is more than capable of leading his team here as was the case in last weeks win vs Western Kentucky. 

FLORIDA ST is 3-12 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and s 4-15 ATS L/19  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points . 

CFB road team   (LOUISVILLE) - a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against a horrible defensive team ( 34  or more PPG), after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

CFB home team (FLORIDA ST) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 57-112 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Louisville to cover 

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between UTSA and North Texas at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is being pegged as a potential shootout but I don't see it playing out that way on Saturday night at Apogee Stadium. Note that last year's matchup produced just 45 total points in a narrow North Texas victory. Texas-San Antonio opened the season with a 35-7 win but that came against FCS squad Incarnate Word. Since then, the Roadrunners have put up just 27 points in dropping back-to-back games against Baylor and Army. Note that while North Texas did drop to 1-2 with a loss at California last week, it did prove it can hang defensively, giving up two first quarter touchdowns before holding the Bears out of the end zone the rest of the way in a 23-17 loss. The Mean Green Eagles catch a favorable matchup here as UTSA possesses a rather punchless offense as evidenced by last week's dismal performance against Army. In that game, the Roadrunners  threw for just 209 yards on 33 pass attempts and their leading rusher managed a paltry 27 yards on the ground. While I am high on North Texas QB Mason Fine, there's no denying that he has struggled over his last two contests, completing just 38-of-72 passes for 362 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. While UNT should have its way with UTSA, the same could have been said last year when it managed only 24 points. Take the under (8*).

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Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Stanford +10.5 

When this line was released early in the offseason in May, Stanford was a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon.  Now the Cardinal are 10.5-point home underdogs to the Ducks this week.  That’s a 13-point adjustment based off the opener and I believe it’s the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on Stanford here. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with Stanford now after they went on the road and got blown out 20-45 by USC and 27-45 by UCF in back-to-back weeks.  But Stanford played without starting QB KJ Costello against USC, and he means everything to them.  And the loss in the heat down in Orlando against UCF isn’t really surprising when you consider UCF has only lost one game over the past three seasons combined. 

Now Stanford returns home where they were last seen beating Northwestern 17-7 in the opener.  They are a much different animal at home.  In fact, Stanford is a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdogs.  They have won eight of those games OUTRIGHT as an underdog.  You can bet David Shaw will have his team highly motivated off those two losses and with Oregon coming to town Saturday night. 

Conversely, it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Oregon.  They lost to Auburn 21-27 in their opener, but came back the next week and took out their frustrations on Nevada in a 77-6 home win.  Then last week they went through the motions and beat Montana 35-3.  So this will be their first true road game of the season and probably almost as tough of a test as that neutral site game was against Auburn. 

Oregon is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by more than 20 points.  David Shaw is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of Stanford.  Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon, outscoring them by a combined 84 points in those three meetings.  The Cardinal are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

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The Aggies are 0-3 so far this season with losses to Washington St (58-7), Alabama (62-10) and San Diego State (31-10). This offense is absolutely hideous with just over 300 yards per game. They allow nearly that much through the air. The Lobos have played just two games beating Sam Houston State 39-31 and then losing last week 66-14 to Notre Dame. The Lobos want to run the ball successfully, but are starting to find some success through the air. The defense isn't very good, but they also got crushed by the Irish so that would skew some things. The last two seasons the road team won with the Lobos taking it 42-25 last year and the Aggies winning 30-28 in 2017. I think this number is high because people just assume that both awful defenses will get crushed, but I think New Mexico State is that bad that they could get held in check. Give me the under in this one.

The SEC Comp Play is on Missouri at 4:00 eastern. The Tigers have covered 7 of 9 at home, 5 of 6 in September, 4 of 5 after allowing 100 or less yards rushing and 8 of 11 vs .500 or less teams. They have triple revenge and catch South Carolina off a blowout loss to Alabama. South Carolina fits a negative dog system that is 16-56 to the spread. Missouri fits a second system that plays on home teams off a shutout win that scored 40 or more vs a team off a loss. Look for Mizzou to get the cover. On Saturday we have a massive card up led by our Executive Level TIER 1 Play, the 20-0 BIG 10 Game Of The Year, 3 big 5* Top System Plays and the PAC 12 Game of the Month. We also have Our September Specific MLB System Plays.  For the SEC free play. Make it Missouri. Rob V- GC Sports

Saturday card has a Huge TIER 1 Executive Level NCAAF Play. The 20-0 BIG 10 Game Of the Year, PAC 13 Game Of the Month on ABC and 3 more TOP 5* Plays along with MLB

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Saturday's FREE WINNER: Washington State.

Game 398.

7:30 pm pst.

You think Chip Kelly ever regrets leaving Oregon? LOL His UCLA Bruins are 0-3 this season and 3-13 overall since he took the reins. They have no offense whatsoever, ranking 101st in passing, 124th in rushing, and 127th in scoring. Their defense is just as bad (108th vs. the pass, 105th vs. the rush, 101st in points allowed). In comes the nations #1 passing attack of Washington State, led by QB, Anthony Gordon (1324 YP, 78.7% CR, 12/2). Dual threat RB, Max Borghi and a deep receiving corps are going to shred the UCLA "D". The Bruins are 6-14 ATS the last 20 on the road and 5-16-1 ATS the last 22 in September. The Cougars 12-3 ATS the last 15 at home and 7-2 ATS the last nine vs. the PAC 12. Take Washington State. Thank you.

MIKE LUNDIN'S GIANTS @ BUCS FREE PICK

The New York Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS on the season, but they've finally decided to give rookie Daniel Jones under center for his first NFL start. I think the change of quarterback will give the Giants enough of an energy boost to keep this close. 

Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards, two TDs and no interceptions during preseason, and I think he'll match up well against a Bucs defense that is vulerable against the pass. The Giants offense has not been bad mind you; they rank 6th for total offense with 420 yards per game and star running back Saquon Barkley, NFL's second-leading rusher with 227 yards, will take a lot of pressure off Jones. 

As for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they're in a letdown spots following a 20-14 upset win at Carolina in the Week 2. They didn't look nearly as good in their season-opening double-digit home loss to San Francisco, and Jameis Winston has a 59 percent completion rate with 2 TDs against 3 INTs. 

The Giants are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog while the Bucs regularly disappoint as a home favorite. I'm well happy to take the points on the visitors in this contest. 

Free pick on New York Giants. 

Mike Lundin's premium pick subscribers can look forward to a HUGE WEEKEND with a minimum of 10 CFB/NFL PICKS spread out over Sat/Sun/Mon. That includes several GAME OF THE WEEK/MONTH releases with plenty of baseball winners sprinkled in as well. 

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