Free NBA Picks

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Detroit Pistons +2

The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately.  Their 18-game losing streak dates back to October 30th.  With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.

The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York two games back as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road.  I cashed the Pistons +9.5 in their 9-point loss to the Cavaliers last time out, and I'm back on them again tonight for many of the same reasons.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season which is the biggest reason to back them right now.  They just got last year's leading scorer in Bojan Bogdanovic back from injury last game for the first time this season.  He had 22 points against the Cavaliers, and the Pistons will be a much more dangerous team with his shooting on the floor moving forward.

The Memphis Grizzlies are the most injury-ravaged team in the NBA.  That's the biggest reason for their 5-14 SU & 8-11 ATS start this season.  They are missing six key players right now including Morant, Smart and Adams.  Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane just don't have much help.  Starting alongside them last game were Biyombo, Roddy and Nowell, who combined for just 18 points.

Memphis is 19-33 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after losing by 42 or more points ATS total in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Taylor Jenkins is 1-11 ATS in road games off a game where they covered but lost SU as an underdog as the coach of Memphis.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

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1* NBA - Hornets/Bulls FREE PICK on Bulls -4.5

1 Unit FREE PLAY on 76ers/Wizards OVER 239.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are 13-6 OVER this season while the Washington Wizards are 12-7 OVER.  These teams played on November 6th earlier this season with the 76ers winning 146-128 for 274 combined points.  The Wizards have gone for 244 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall.  The 76ers have gone for 238 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Washington is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a double-digit underdog.  Give me the OVER.

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Dave's Wednesday Free Play:

1* on Toronto Raptors -3.5

The Key: The Miami Heat are without Adebayo, Hero and Highsmith right now.  The Toronto Raptors are fully healthy.  I like the price we are getting on the Raptors at home tonight over the Miami Heat given those injuries for the road team.  This is a team the Heat cannot figure out as the Raptors are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups with 3 consecutive wins and covers.  Miami is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games after losing 2 of its last 3 games.  The Heat are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Toronto.

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Raptors -3

In a game set for Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET in Toronto, Canada's Scotiabank Arena, the Heat (11-9, 9-11 ATS, 6-6 AWAY) will tip-it-off against the Raptors (9-11, 11-9 ATS, 6-5 HOME). If you're considering a straight-up bet, be cautious of the steep -150 odds for the Raptors, I never advise betting higher than -150 odds; it might not be the wisest choice. The Moneyline (ML) odds stand at Heat +125 and Raptors -150. The point spread favors the Raptors at -3.5 (-105), and the initial Over/Under total is set at 220.5 points. This marks their first meeting in the 2023/24 season, but in the previous season, the Raptors won three out of four matchups against the Heat. It's not easy to beat the Raptors in Toronto. Bottom line, plain and simple, full stop. These guys get up for games in front of the home crowd and then combined with Herro and Adebayo being out for the Heat in this one and Miami might be biting off more than they can chew on Wednesday night. Toronto puts up a ton of shots if they start making some shooting improvements they're going to be even tougher, their FG% is lower than MIA's but they make up for the shooting on the glass, where they really attack on both the D and Offensive glass. (4th and 12th in the NBA). They're a good defensive team, and they'll give MIA headaches tonight. Barnes, Siakam, Poeltl, Schroder, and Anunoby have some really good chemistry together as a starting unit. There's always good energy in the building, and the Raps play better at home. They just do! Trends: The Raptors have covered the spread in 3 of the L4 vs. MIA, and in 6 of 7. Heat are 1-4 SU L5, 1-6 ATS L7 vs. TOR, and are 1-4 ATS L5 when playing IN TOR. Plus the Heat are 1-6 ATS in their L7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Raptors are 10-1 ATS in their L11 following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, are 6-1 L7 vs. Southeast teams, and are 4-1 ATS L5 at home. Lastly, the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Hop on! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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7* NBA - Heat/Raptors Free Pick

PLAY ON: Raptors -3

My money is on the Raptors laying a mere 3-points at home against what I think is a reeling Heat team. Miami has lost 4 of their last 5 and are a team I think are a bit overpriced right now with the injury to Bam Adebayo. He was really playing great to start the season. Heat just don't have another big like that can put up those kind of numbers. Miami still without Tyler Herro and key reserve Haywood Highsmith is out for this one. Raptors on the other hand are at full strength and could be a team that goes on a run here to close out 2023. I like them to win and cover the short number here. Give me the Raptors -3! 

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Heat/Raptors NBA Free Pick

Neither team has been playing well lately, but I like the Raptors to get a win and cover following a 119-106 loss to the Knicks in their last game. 

The Raptors are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5 and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

The Heat are coming off a 144-129 loss to Indiana, but they are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

2* FREE PICK ON THE TORONTO RAPTORS. 

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Dallas has lost two straight games and five of its past seven and according to my projections are being over rated here tonight. Note: Mavs Shooting guard Kyrie Irving (foot) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (back) are listed as questionable to play against Utah and if they do will be less than 100%. Utah has won three of its past five games, including a 118-113 overtime victory over the visiting Portland Trail Blazers as they playing all round tougher hoops by not depending on their two top scorers, ( Markkanen (23.7 points per game) and Jordan Clarkson (17.8) who are once again expected out tonight)

DALLAS is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH is 35-14 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Hardy is 17-5 ATS against Southwest division opponents as the coach of UTAH

NBA  Underdogs (UTAH) - off a win against a division rival, in December games are 42-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jazz to cover

Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It's not often we can get a price like this with the Magic anymore as the 'genie is out of the bottle' so to speak. Off a SU loss in Brooklyn and back-to-back ATS defeats, we'll confidently back Orlando to bounce back here as it returns to the floor against Cleveland on Wednesday. The Cavs have been up and down so far this season but do check in with a winning record at 11-9. They're just 5-6 at home, where they've actually been outscored by just north of 2.0 points per contest. Note that Orlando is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games when priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 14-25 ATS in its last 39 contests after winning two of its last three games, as is the case here. Take Orlando.