Bryan Leonard Free College Basketball Picks & Predictions for Today

966 LA Dodgers at Seattle

Limited card of baseball on Monday, but this is a nice situation for the Mariners. The Dodgers just faced the Padres in what likely is going to be a war for the division title. The Dodgers have the talent to slide by against most, but must bring an extra motivation when playing San Diego. 

Dustin May has an average game score of 57 his last seven starts. Justus Sheffield has a solid 52 average game score his last seven starts. While the Dodgers are 9-1 on the season vs righty starters, they are only 4-2 vs lefties. The Mariners are riding a 7-2 run as of late, and are worthy of a shot here at a nice underdog price.

PLAY SEATTLE

44 Minnesota at Arizona

After three straight wins at home Minnesota now travels for four straight on the road. They have won 5 of 6 on the season in this series. The Coyotes played eight straight away from home, before returning ti Phoenix with a 3-2 win over the red hot Blues on Saturday. 

In 5x5 play in G+-/60 we find the Wild ranking 11th and the Coyotes 21st. In xG/60 it’s Minnesota at +0.16 and Arizona -0.24.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 25th and Arizona 22nd. In xG/60 the Wild are +5.77 and the Coyotes +4.55. So positive regression is in store for the Wild.

On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Minnesota ranks 5th and the Coyotes 18th. In xG/60 it’s the Wild -4.59 and the Coyotes -7.99. A major advantage for the visitor.

While the numbers show Minnesota to be the better team, the spot favors the host. The Wild is great at home but just mediocre on the road at 10-9-3. At 11-8-3 for the Coyotes at home, we find value in a must win game for Arizona. The Coyotes are barely handing on to the final playoff spot in this division, with a one point lead over St Louis. 

PLAY ARIZONA

41 Chicago at Nashville

The Blackhawks are looking for their first win of the season against the Preds. Three of the games were lost by a single goal. 

In 5x5 G+-/60 Chicago ranks 8th and the Predators 18th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are -0.37, while Nashville is -0.05. So much closer than the actual goals scored would suggest.

On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Blackhawks are ranked 12th and the Preds 18th. In xG/60 Chicago is +5.21 and Nashville +5.17. 

Neither teams is good on the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 with Chicago ranking 28th and Nashville 27th. In xG/60 we find the Blackhawks -6.02, and the Preds -6.17. 

We have these two rated virtually even, so there is really no reason why Nashville has won the first five meetings. Look for Chicago to get in the win column here.

PLAY CHICAGO

912 Chicago WS at Cleveland

Listed Rodon & Plesac

Quick rematch of the Rodon no-hitter with a venue change. We usually look to fade a pitcher off the emotional high, and it’s especially true after the injury battles Carlos Rodon had to go through to get to where he is now. It was a great story, but we have to move on to the next game. 

Plesac was bombed in that game as he simply didn’t pitch well. The last time he had a game anywhere near that result he pitched an 87 game score his next outing. 

We all know the Sox rake against lefties, with a 4-1 record this season. But they are only 4-8 on the year vs righties. Looking at hard hit rate Cleveland ranks 7th and Chicago 19th. Yet the White Sox have an 18% better wRC+. That means Cleveland is hitting better than the actual runs scored would suggest. With the Indians 4-1 at home this year, and the embarrassment of being no-hit, we will back the Tribe as an underdog today.

PLAY CLEVELAND