Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

8* New Mexico State (8:00 ET): This "border war" rounds out today's deep dive. Las Cruces and El Paso aren't too far away on the map, but I feel the schools hailing from those corresponding cities are a lot further apart than what the oddsmakers seem to think. New Mexico State has beaten UTEP nine straight times, including a four-point win here in El Paso last season. The number is lower for this year's visit and I'm not sure why as the teams are about the same. Lay the points. 

New Mexico State could not have had an easier opening game. Faced w/ an opponent that had zero chance, they quickly put Western New Mexico out of its misery. Now I realize that is a "nothing team" the Aggies beat, but the numbers were pretty staggering. The game started w/ 16-0 run. NMSU led 52-16 at the half and was up by as many as 52 in an eventual 92-46 victory. All 10 players that took the court scored. They allowed 28.6% shooting. 

Let's not forget that this New Mexico State team won 30 games last season and took Auburn to the wire (lost by 1) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Five of its five losses were by six points or less! They have four starters back and figure to run through the WAC yet again. As for UTEP, it's 93-70 win over NM Highlands was not nearly as impressive as what NMSU did in its opener. The Miners actually turned the ball over 20 times and led by only nine w/ just over eight minutes remaining in the 2H. I think it's shocking this number is so low as the favorite is a really good team. 8* New Mexico State

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Let's continue the "deep dive" into tonight's College Hoops card w/ a play on UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns are hoping for the same kind of success that the school's football team is having at the betting window this year (football team is 8-1 ATS, tied for best ATS record in the country w/ Ohio St). So far the basketball team is 2-0 SU, but neither game was lined. They defeated Loyola (NO) and McNeese State at home, by 28 and 5 points respectively. Take the points here as this number is way too high. 

TCU has played just one game and it was against Southwestern (TX), also a non-board opponent. The Horned Frogs won by 21 (83-62), but don't expect many more wins like that this season out of Ft. Worth. This team was picked to finish last in the Big 12. While leading scorer Desmond Bane is back, the next top four scorers from LY's team all departed. Bane did go for 26 against Southwestern, a D-III opponent, but it was shockingly just a three-point game shortly after halftime. So the final score there was a little misleading. Again, I won't be betting on TCU to win many games by large margins this year. 

UL Lafayette is picked to finish 5th in the Sun Belt. They too lost a lot of talent from LY's squad, but did bring in a key transfer (Jalen Johnson) from St. Louis. Also, the team's leading returning scorer, Cedric Russell, went for 22 pts against McNeese State. Giving the Ragin Cajuns hope here is the fact TCU was actually outrebounded in the opening game and allowed nearly 40% three-point shooting.  8* UL Lafayette 

8* Chicago State (8:00 ET): I'm digging deep on the board tonight. Chicago State is a team that has averaged 94 points in its first two games, albeit not against the stiffest of competition. The Cougars opened with a 103-60 rout of Judson College, a NAIA school, a game in which they shot the lights out (56.3%!) and led by 20 at halftime. They then lost to Loyola (MD), 98-85 in the home opener. This time, it was the Cougars on the wrong end of some sharpshooting as Loyola made 60% of its field goal attempts in the 1st half. Expect better defense from them tonight as I'll take the points.

This is obviously a big number for Eastern Illinois to lay in the wake of an 0-2 start. Now it was expected the Panthers would start 0-2 as they opened w/ road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They did not do well at Texas Tech, losing 85-60, but were surprisingly competitive in Madison, losing by only 13 as 19-point underdogs. EIU was actually within three w/ just nine minutes to play and what makes that even more impressive is they were -17 in points at the free throw line for the game. That discrepancy basically determined the outcome of the game. 

While Eastern Illinois won't be facing that kind of free throw discrepancy tonight at home, I don't see a clear path to winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here. I know they faced two tough defensive teams, but a 56.0 PPG scoring average isn't exactly what you want to see from this large of a favorite. Especially when matched up w/ an underdog that you know can put the ball in the basket. Something to keep in mind is that Chicago State beat Eastern Illinois last year for their ONLY win over a D-I opponent the entire year (team finished 3-29). They are MUCH better this year. 8* Chicago State

10* Over Thunder/Pacers (7:05 ET): Personally, I feel that Oklahoma City has performed quite admirably in their first 10 games of the season. With both Russell Westbrook and Paul George departing via free agency, the Thunder were expected to take a massive hit in the standings this year. But so far they've gone 4-6 straight up, showing that they're going to be competitive. They only lost by two to Milwaukee on Sunday in a high-scoring game (121-119 final).

As per usual, Indiana was pegged to finish in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff mix. The season did not start well as they opened w/ three consecutive losses. But since that time, the Pacers are 6-1 with the only loss coming by just two points. Similar to Oklahoma City, there have been plenty of high-scoring games involving Indiana recently. Their last game was a 109-102 win at Orlando, which isn't all that high-scoring, but it was a second straight Over and third in four games.

Oklahoma City has gone Over in three straight as their games are now averaging 212.8 PPG. Against Milwaukee, they had seven players in double figures. Indiana is getting similar balance as they had six players score 10 or more points at Orlando. That kind of balance is huge with Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner still out with injuries. Pacers' games are averaging 215.2 PPG this year. I think it's pretty clear that this number opened too low. A key to this one going Over is that OKC is giving up 112.3 PPG on the road, well up from what they allow at home. 10* Over Thunder/Pacers

7* Montreal (7:05 ET): The Canadiens are playing well right now. They've gone 5-1-1 their last seven games. The lone regulation loss came in Dallas at the end of a three-game trip out West. Saturday saw the club pick up two points here at home as they held on for a 3-2 win over the Kings (led 3-0 in the 1st period). Tonight is another home game against a bad team, that being Columbus, who has lost six of their last seven games. Look for the Habs to win again. 

The Blue Jackets have been outscored 26-14 in a 1-5-1 slide that has them near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division. This slide has resulted in C-bus having one of the YTD goal differentials in the league. Only three teams - the Red Wings, Devils and Kings - have been outscored more this season. Making matters worse, the team is going to be w/o forward Nick Foligno tonight as he has been suspended for three games due to elbowing Colorado's Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.

Columbus is also turning to a backup goalie in this spot, Elvis Merzlikins, who was just recalled from the AHL affiliate in Cleveland. Merzlikins has started three games so far this season and has a poor .882 save percentage. It just so happens the Blue Jackets have lost all three of those games as well. The backup goalie situation, the fact this is the finale of a three-game road trip for C-bus and the respective play of the two teams recently have me "all in" on the Canadiens here. Montreal is capable of scoring plenty and often does here on home ice. 7* Montreal 

10* BYU (9:00 ET): BYU lost as a four-point favorite in its last game, falling to San Diego State 76-71 on Saturday. That same day, Southern Utah pulled off what will likely end up being the highlight of their season, a 79-78 upset of Nebraska where they rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half. Those results set us up very nicely for a play on BYU here. Yes, the Cougars are a little short-handed right now (Yoeli Childs suspended). But they still led SDSU for much of the second half. It was a game they still should have won. Look for them to take out their frustrations tonight. Lay the points. 

Southern Utah trailed Nebraska by 11 at halftime and was down by as many as 14 early in the second half. The Thunderbirds made their shocking comeback thanks to some terrible Nebraska shooting down the stretch. The Cornhuskers finished the game at 37.0% overall and 19.2% from three-point range. Surprisingly, SUU was even worse from behind the arc. But they still earned their 1st win over a power conference program since 2003. They needed double overtime to do so as Cameron Oluyitan sank a 10-ft jumper w/ just two seconds left to give his team the upset win (were 7-pt underdogs). 

Though the schools have not met since 2007, BYU has dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 9 straight times from 99-07. Eight of the nine wins have been by double digits. As mentioned above, while Southern Utah had to come from behind to earn its latest victory, BYU "came from ahead" in its latest loss. Despite trailing at halftime, the Cougars were up eight w/ just under 13 minutes remaining. They were up seven w/ just over six minutes left. Playing at home, it's a game they should have won. Though part of the Maui Invitational, this game is being played in Provo and I don't see BYU suffering B2B home defeats. 10* BYU

8* Washington (7:35 ET): Despite being 8-1 SU and 1st in the Eastern Conference, Boston appears quite vulnerable going into tonight's home game vs. Washington. Winners of eight in a row, the Celtics have been "bit" by the injury bug. Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely after breaking his hand against the Spurs over the weekend. Big man Daniel Theis will join him on the bench w/ a sprained finger. Kemba Walker, who is the team's leading scorer, had to leave the last game w/ a case of whiplash. While Walker has been cleared to play tonight, I'm still taking the points in this matchup. 

If Washington can't compete here, then it's going to be a very LONG season. Honestly, it'll probably be a long season in the Nation's capital regardless, but this is a spot where the team should be ready to go. Coming off B2B losses, the Wizards have had the last four days off. That's a lot of time in between games, even with the "new" NBA schedule. The only other time this season that the Wiz took the floor w/ three or more days was the insane game vs. Houston (159-158 loss) where they did cover. They are 7-4 SU/ATS the L3 season w/ 3+ days rest. 

Though Walker seems like he's going to play, the Celtics are still short-handed and eventually that's going to catch up to them. The team shot 42.9% from three-point range against Dallas Monday, a percentage I don't believe is sustainable for them. Then again, Jayson Tatum shot 1 for 18 from the field in that game! But it was Walker bailing them out by scoring 24 of his team-high 29 pts in the 2nd half. They can't succeed like that every game though. Washington's leading scorer Bradley Beal had an off-night vs. Cleveland on Friday, missing 13 of 21 shots. He'll shoot better here. Despite being 2-6 SU, the Wizards are only being outscored by 4.1 PPG. 8* Washington