Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

8* Under Twins/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Minnesota is off a series with Detroit where the teams combined for 53 total runs including a slugfest on Wednesday that more closely resembled the kind of score you’d get from Vikings-Lions (17-14). But once again we’ve got an AL team heading to a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter from the lineup. Furthermore, Busch Stadium is a place where only 7.8 runs per game are averaged for the season. I see this one going Under as the Twins also have one of their better starters on the mound tonight. 

That starter would be Jose Berrios, who has a 0.75 WHIP over his L3 starts. His 4.05 ERA over the same timeframe is misleading as both runs allowed in his last start were unearned. Berrios has gone at least six innings in four consecutive starts and never allowed more than four hits. He should feast on a National League lineup, and a pretty weak one at that, which could only muster six runs in two games at an AL park (meaning they got to use a DH) earlier this week. 

Like the Twins, the Cardinals had yesterday off. I was in attendance when they lost 7-2 at Cleveland Wednesday afternoon. The Cards’ playoff hopes are pretty slim now, but here they are facing a last place team that has only 19 road wins all year. Look for Wade LeBlanc, who is 3-0 Under at home, to pitch better than expected tonight. The Under is 23-11-3 in St. Louis’ last 37 home games against a team with a losing record. 8* Under Twins/Cardinals

6* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres are looking to erase the memory of earlier this month when they became the first team this season to lose B2B home games to the Rockies. The road has certainly been an adventure for the Rockies this year as they are an awful 11-39 and averaging just 3.1 runs per game. They are on an 8-37 run when priced between +175 and +250 on the road, as they are here, including 2-17 this season. Given last night’s 3-0 shutout, I see no reason why the Padres won’t win again tonight. 

They might only be in third place in their own division, but San Diego is one of the better teams in baseball. Only six teams have a better YTD run differential. It just happens to be unfortunate that they are in the same division as the Giants and Dodgers. But being in the same division as the Rockies is a benefit. No team in the National League has more home victories this year than San Diego’s 35. They should have won by more than three last night, but had two runners thrown out at the plate (in the same inning!). 

Ryan Weathers will look to replicate the strong outing Joe Musgrove gave the Padres on Thursday. Weathers was injured when he faced Colorado back on July 11th (the final day before the All-Star Break) and has only pitched one time since. That was last Saturday when he threw four shutout innings vs. Miami. He should pitch well here. Jon Gray has a 1-7 TSR on the road for the Rockies, who are 22-38 off a loss this season and 2-10 L12 games at San Diego. 6* San Diego

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I’m banking on a strong Mets debut from Carlos Carrasco here. Acquired on January 7th from Cleveland (as part of the Francisco Lindor trade), Carrasco has yet to pitch at the big-league level in 2021 after tearing his hamstring in Spring Training. He’s made three rehab starts, though those only lasted a total of 6 ⅔ innings. Keep in mind that Carrasco was expected to be the Mets #2 starter this year (behind Jacob deGrom). He’s 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime vs. Cincinnati, a team that is not nearly as strong at the plate on the road as they are at home. I like the Mets big here. 

Despite multiple injuries to its starting rotation, deGrom and Carrasco chief among them, the Mets have led the NL East for the last 83 days and are allowing only 2.7 runs per game at home this year. Visiting teams have hit just .202 at Citi Field. With Carrasco set to return and Rich Hill acquired in a trade yesterday, the Mets’ rotation should continue to excel down the stretch. As I alluded to above, the Reds only average 4.3 rpg on the road, which is a full run less than what they score at home. They did just have a productive series at Wrigley Field, scoring five or more runs in all four games. But it’ll be a big change here as they face a much better Mets’ pitching staff. 

The Mets did lose 6-3 to the Braves yesterday. However, that was a game where they had 12 hits and should have scored more. They went 1 for 8 with RISP. I expect better hitting tonight against Sonny Gray, who was tagged for eight runs his last time out and now has a 9.00 ERA and 1.867 WHIP his L3 starts. The Reds’ bullpen also remains a big question mark. Therefore, I’m calling for an end to a couple of streaks today - the Reds’ three-game win streak and Joey Votto’s six-game streak with a home run. 10* NY Mets

free play

8* Under Royals/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): This is a series that Toronto probably should sweep. For a second straight day, they are north of -200 on the money line and they figure to be heavy favorites on Sunday as well. The series got off to a good start on Friday with a 6-4 win. That puts the Jays at 52-48 through their first 100 games, but really they should have a much better record considering their YTD run differential is +99 (only five teams better). They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Kansas City was an obvious seller at yesterday’s trade deadline. They are 12 games below .500 w/ a -84 YTD run differential. 

Toronto bolstered its starting rotation with a deadline deal, acquiring Jose Berrios from Minnesota. That will help in the run suppression department moving forward and I also don’t see them giving up a ton of runs tonight when they send Alek Manoah to the bump. Through eight starts, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA and his last two at home have seen him not give up a single ER in 13 IP. The Royals came into this series averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road while batting a collective .228. The Under is 8-1-2 in their L11 games. 

Last night marked the first time the Jays got to play in Toronto in almost two years (due to the pandemic). Playing “home games” in Dunedin and Buffalo this year, the team has not been shy about scoring runs, averaging 5.8 per game. That’s the most by any team at home all season. While they were right in line with that average Friday night, I do think that the return to Rogers Centre will lead to a decrease in runs per game moving forward. A benefit here is that they probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead). In eight career appearances against Toronto, Royals starter Mike Minor has a 2.59 ERA. He’s coming off B2B quality starts as well. The Under is 9-1 in Toronto’s L10 games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Royals/Blue Jays