Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (5:08 ET): These teams must REALLY love to go Over. Last night saw the Astros stun the Fenway faithful with a seven-run ninth inning. That not only evened this ALCS up at two games apiece, but sent Game 4 Over the total by one run. Every game in the series has now gone Over. Both teams are 7-0 Over their L7 games. They are 6-0 Over the L6 times they’ve faced one another. This “madness” has to come to an end sooner rather than later. Right? 

We’ve got two lefties starting Game 5 - Framber Valdez for Houston and Chris Sale for Boston. This is a rematch from Game 1 when neither southpaw was very effective. Both were pulled after just 2 ⅔ innings. But Valdez has better numbers on the road than he does at home, namely a 2.88 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. Sale has better numbers at home (2.48 ERA, 1.276 WHIP) than he does on the road. So expect both guys to pitch better than they did in Game 1. Valdez had a 1.59 ERA vs. Boston while Sale had a 2.20 ERA vs. Houston (prior to Game 1). 

Obviously, condolences are in order to anyone that may have had the Under last night. That bet looked like a surefire winner for most of the game. It was 2-1 going into eighth and 2-2 going into the ninth with an O/U line of 10.0. But we saw what happens with Boston when they’re not hitting grand slams every night. They finished with just five hits and the only two runs scored both came in the first inning. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Red Sox have faced a left-handed starter. We’re obviously overdue for an Under in this series. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): Two Eastern Conference teams that I expect to end up fighting for play-in spots come playoff time are Indiana and Charlotte. That shouldn’t be considered a very “hot” take. After all, both these teams found themselves in the play-in round last year. Neither made it out with the Hornets losing to the Pacers 144-117 to end their season. Then Indiana could not get by Washington, losing 142-115, which ended their season. It should be a much lower-scoring game to start the season this year. Take the Under on Wednesday.

Indiana has finished between fourth and ninth place in the Eastern Conference each of the last six seasons. That’s a nice run of consistency, but they’ve never advanced past the first round of the playoffs during that time. The hope is that new HC Rick Carlisle can take them past mediocrity. He’s got some good pieces with Sabonis, Turner, Brogdon, LeVert and Warren forming a solid starting five. There’s not much depth though. What Carlisle needs to work on - and probably will - is the defense. The Pacers gave up 115.7 PPG, the same number they averaged themselves. That led to the highest Over percentage in the league. I expect more Unders in 2021-22. 

Compared to Indiana, Charlotte games were much lower-scoring last season. The Hornets only averaged 109.6 PPG, which put them in the bottom third of the league. Defensively, the key to their success is playing more zone than every other team. The zone clearly bothers opponents. It should bother Indiana, who will be without Warren and LeVert. But I worry about the Hornets offensively as their leading scorer last year was Terry Rozier. We saw what happened LY in the play-in game when the threes weren’t falling. The Under is 13-3 their L16 games as a home favorite. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

8* Appalachian State (7:30 ET): I have no unearthly idea what happened to Appalachian State last Tuesday when they suffered a humiliating 41-13 defeat at Louisiana. I do know they turned the ball over four times and were 0 for 11 on third down. You’re not going to win many football games doing that. It was a highly uncharacteristic effort from the Mountaineers, whose only other loss this year came by two points at Miami FL. Perhaps last week was a case of “looking ahead” to this game, a showdown with undefeated and reigning Sun Belt Champion Coastal Carolina. Whatever the reason was, I’m calling for ASU to bounce back at home. Take the points. 

It’s been 13 days since Coastal Carolina last took the field. The 52-20 win over Arkansas State made the Chanticleers the first team in the country to become bowl eligible. But they are obviously interested in far more than just making it to a bowl. This team had an undefeated regular season last year (11-0) before losing to Liberty 37-34 (OT) in the Cure Bowl. Now the Chants are looking to represent the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six Bowl. This will be by far their toughest test to date as so far Coastal has been a two-touchdown favorite in every game. They’ve been favored by 20 or more in all but one game and three times they’ve been favored by 30 or more. 

You have to remember that Louisiana (who smoked App State last week) is the Sun Belt’s “other good team.” It was a bad loss for the Mountaineers, but not something they can’t overcome. Coming into the season, this is the game they circled as they’ve got revenge for a 34-23 loss in Conway last season. Now the game is in Boone, where ASU has suffered only two losses the L3 years and both were by a field goal. They have not been a home dog since 2017. Coastal came out of NOWHERE in 2020 (were picked to finish 5th in the SBC!) and as a result, I felt their record would regress this season. If they are to lose a regular season game, it would clearly be this one. To this point, the Chanticleers have not faced a team I’d consider to be ranked in the top 100 in the country. App State is on their level, particularly at home. Coming off last week’s shocking loss, this is a great “buy low” spot on the home dog. 8* Appalachian State