Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

10* New Orleans (9:05 ET): The Pelicans haven’t won a home game since January 2nd, which was 23 days ago if you don’t have your calendar handy. They are coming off an unsuccessful 1-5 road trip where the only team they managed to defeat was lowly Sacramento. It should be noted the Pelicans did play four games against the West’s top three teams (Lakers, Clippers, Jazz twice) on the trip, though there’s no excuse for an outright loss (as 8.5-pt chalk) at Minnesota that occurred on Saturday. 

San Antonio finds itself in the second night of a back to back after they beat Washington 121-101 last night. That was the Wizards’ first game in two weeks, so they were at a significant disadvantage. Previous to that win, the Spurs had lost B2B games and I’d played against them both times. My 10* Game of the Week was Warriors 121-99 on Wednesday while Friday’s 122-117 loss to the Mavs saw the Spurs trailing most of the way. They have lost both previous games w/o rest, averaging only 91.5 points per game. 

My view is that New Orleans is going to come out very hungry as they aim to end this three-game home losing streak. Note two of the three losses were by 2 points or less. The Pelicans really should be better than 5-10 SU at this point, although playing two-thirds of their games on the road is tough. They beat the Spurs in the home opener this season, 98-95, and that was on a poor shooting night. Like this game, the Spurs were in the second night of a back to back. San Antonio’s only other game without rest this season was an outright loss at Minnesota where they scored only 88 points. 10* New Orleans

8* Under Sixers/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played on Saturday and it was Philadelphia picking up a 114-110 win here in the Motor City. They did not cover the spread (were -8.5), yet will certainly take the SU win as it improved their overall record to 12-5 (#1 in the East). The Sixers have won three straight as well as five of the last six. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ve got the Pistons, who are a league-worst 3-13 SU. That’s not a shock (were projected to finish last in the East prior to the start of the year) and they’ve now lost their last four games.

Things were a bit higher-scoring than expected on Saturday as the teams combined to take 68 free throws and the Pistons made 14 three-pointers. Both numbers are certainly atypical. On average, these teams combine to average just 49 FT’s per game. The Pistons do actually average 13 three-point makes per game, but it was the percentage (42.8%) that was high on Saturday. Detroit comes into tonight shooting just 40.2% from the field (on all attempts) at home.

Philly has a top three defensive efficiency rating in the league, so they shouldn’t have much difficulty slowing down a Pistons team that is averaging only 105.6 PPG at home. Detroit was widely expected to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season and that’s “bearing fruit.” They have an effective field goal percentage below 50% on the year, one of only three teams that can say that. Meanwhile, the Sixers average only 105.7 PPG on the road, so this shapes up to be a low-scoring game. Joel Embiid, who had 33 points Saturday, is listed as questionable to play. 8* Under Sixers/Pistons

10* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Both teams could very well be short-handed coming into this one. Well, we know Iowa State will. The Cyclones have been hit hard by COVID-19 with their last four games, three of which were to be against Top 25 opponents, all postponed. They haven’t played since Jan 9th when they got their doors blown off by Texas Tech, 91-64, which left them at 2-7 overall and 0-5 vs. the Big 12. I faded ISU in that Texas Tech game and will do so again now as they’re in even worse shape. 

All Iowa State team activities have been paused for the L10 days, creating quite the challenging situation for HC Steve Prohm. Prohm has said the Cyclones will be without several players for tonight and that all four of his walk-ons will need to be “ready to play.” That doesn’t sound promising. This was already looking like a rough season in Ames and now the team has gone 10 days without a full practice. Because of protocols, no more than two players have been able to practice together at a time and players aren’t even allowed to see one another, unless they are roommates. 

Oklahoma State had a key absence Saturday as the Big 12’s leading scorer and presumed #1 NBA Draft pick Cade Cunningham did not suit up. But despite missing their best player, the Cowboys actually led #1 Baylor at the half! Cunningham was cleared for Saturday (COVID), but was not ready to play according to the coaching staff. His status for tonight remains unknown, but the bottom line here is that the Pokes are the much better team here. They’ve not only hung tough with the likes of Baylor, Texas & West Virginia, but also beaten Texas Tech and Kansas. If Cunningham does play, it’ll be a bonus as I don’t think this game will be close at all. 10* Oklahoma State