Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

7* Arizona (1:05 ET): Both teams enter this Saturday matinee on three-game losing streaks. But that's where the similarities end. Perhaps the biggest difference between Arizona and New Jersey is the fact the former is fighting for a playoff spot while the latter has LONG been out of contention and officially eliminated. With Minnesota winning last night, the Coyotes are one point out of the Wild Card. So they need this game - badly. Look for them to get the two points as they're 10-4 the last 14 games vs. teams w/ a sub-.500 record.

New Jersey is quite bad. They've spent much of this season in last in the Metro and they have the fourth fewest points in the league. Their three game losing streak has seen them get outscored 12-2 and generally be not competitive. The Devils rank 29th in the league in goals allowed and I wouldn't look for them to get much offense against a Coyotes club that ranks in the top 10 in goals allowed. They managed just 22 shots on goal in a 5-1 loss to Boston Thursday night. That was their 5th consecutive home loss, a streak which dates back to last month. 

Arizona has already dropped two games to non-playoff teams recently, so another one would be borderline unacceptable. They were beaten 4-2 at Florida Thursday, even though they finished w/ a 34-22 edge in shots. Note the 'Yotes were ML dogs in each of their last two losses. They are 5-1 L6 when priced between -151 and -200 on the ML. They are priced appropriately in this one and I'll grab 'em. 7* Arizona 

10* Over Florida/Michigan (5:15 ET): These are two of the better defensive teams in the country, so it's no surprise the total opened really low. But it clearly opened too low as is evident by the fact we've seen some significant movement w/ the number. I'm following the $$$ on this one as "average games" from both sides would equal an Over. What I mean by that Florida scores 68.3 points per game and allows 63.6. Michigan scores 70.5 PPG and allows 58.5. The shooting percentages both teams allowed in Round 1 won't be matched here. Take the Over. 

Michigan met a clearly inferior opponent in Round 1 as they blew out 15-seed Montana 74-55. The Wolverines' extraordinary defense was on full display in that one as they held the Golden Grizzlies to just 33.3% in a game that was never really close. The Maize and Blue jumped out to an early double digit advantage, a much different start compared to when they faced Montana in LY's Tournament. Note it was Montana's second worst shooting percentage all season. Ironically, the Wolverines did allow more points this time against Montana. After beating them 61-47 LY, they'd go on to allow 63 in the next round to Houston (a game they won at the buzzer). 

Florida will be much tougher to defend compared to Montana, obviously. But similar to Michigan, the Gators won't have as easy a time stopping the Wolverines as they did vs. Nevada Thursday. The Wolf Pack were held to 34.5% shooting in a bad all-around performance by them. While Florida is 16-3 Under outside of Gainesville this season, they did recently shoot over 60% in a game (vs. Auburn), showing that they can "bring it" offensively. At the same time, Michigan will perform a lot better from three-point range than Nevada (5 of 24) did. All we need here is for both teams to score 62 pts and that really doesn't sound too difficult. 10* Over Florida/Michigan

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Not a good spot for Miami tonight as they are coming off a 116-87 whitewashing at the hands of Milwaukee last night. As well as the Heat had been playing before that (they'd won 8 of 10), they still are only one-half game ahead of Orlando for the 8th (and final) playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Heat may play better on the road, and they haven't lost to a team that isn't in the top two of the East since February. But Washington has been good at home this season ATS (21-13-1) and typically takes care of business as a favorite. The Wizards may be on the fringes of playoff contention, but I look for them to come up big on Saturday. 

The Heat got off to a decent start last night, scoring 32 pts in the 1st quarter. But from there, they were unable to score 20 points in any other quarter. The Bucks are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, so give some credit there. However, make no mistake about it, Miami has had some offensive troubles this season. Three times in the last five games they've been held below 100 points. I'm surprised to see the Heat are 11-3 ATS in the 2nd game of a back to back this season, but that also includes a 7-1 mark at home. Only three times this season have they had to play B2B road games. They have been outscored by 5.3 PPG in those three contests. 

Washington has lost three in a row, putting a severe damper on its already dwindling playoff hopes. They are coming off a five-point loss to the Nuggets, here at home, a game that was tied going into the fourth quarter. That was the second night of a back to back for them. The good news is that the Wizards are on a 6-1 ATS run following a SU loss. They've also fared far better in division games this year (9-4 ATS) than have the Heat (4-9 ATS), at least when it comes to the betting window. The Wizards have covered 2 of 3 against the Heat already this year. I like them to make it 3 of 4 tonight. 8* Washington

10* Maryland (12:10 ET): The defensive efficiency metric I lean so heavily on for handicapping this Tournament clearly favors Maryland in this second round matchup. The Terrapins are 24th in the country in defensive efficiency, LSU is 58th. Taking underdogs, no matter how small, with that kind of DE advantage is something I love to do. It was the strategy used in yday's big winners on Oklahoma and Washington. Neither of these teams covered Thursday, but LSU is a team I was NOT sold on for much of the regular season as they were a clear overachiever in the regular season. They also are playing w/o HC Will Wade, who is a part of the ongoing NCAA scandal. Take the points. 

Maryland spent a lot of their Round 1 game trailing Belmont. The Terps are a very young team w/ six freshman seeing time. No one in their rotation had ever won a NCAA Tourney game before Thursday. In the frontcourt are two players (Fernando, Smith) who will be in the NBA. In the backcourt is one of the Big 10's best guards, Anthony Cowan Jr, who shot just 3 of 18 against Belmont (including 1 of 10 on three-pointers). The fact the Terps still won in spite of their best player having "that kind of game" is a mark in their favor, especially w/ them falling into such an early hole (trailed by 12 in 1st half). Cowan won't shoot that poorly again here. 

LSU was far more in control of their 1st round game against Yale. The Tigers led by 16 at halftime and held on for a 79-74 win (but did not cover). However, the size advantage they enjoyed against Yale won't be present here. Now you can say the same for Maryland, who used size to its advantage against Belmont. However, a discussion of the LSU coaching situation bears repeating. Not having your head coach in this tournament is obviously not ideal. LSU has enjoyed a tremendous record in close games this year (including four OT wins in SEC play). You have to wonder if that luck is set to run out. I think it will. 10* Maryland