Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons couldn’t be further from the success of the legendary “Bad Boys” of the late 1980’s or even the teams from 15-17 years ago. They have basically spent the entire year in last place in the Eastern Conference. Their current record is 17-40 SU and they’ve dropped four of five following a 21-point setback (121-100) in D.C. on Saturday. But I just can’t understand why they’d be getting points, at home, from a Cleveland team who has a far more negative point differential. Yes, the Cavs have a better SU record. But this is just the third time they will be a road favorite in 2020-21. 

I know the Pistons are currently fielding a VERY young lineup. A majority of the veterans are dealing with injuries, so they will be resting tonight. It’s not like the team was doing that well with those players on the floor, so I don’t really view this as a negative. While the Pistons were blown out by a surging Wizards team over the weekend, this is basically the same starting lineup that beat Oklahoma City here at home on Friday. While the Thunder are 30th (last) in my personal power rankings, the Cavs are 29th. So this is a very winnable game for a Detroit team that’s already 16-5 ATS this season when off a double digit loss.

This is also a big revenge game for the Pistons. They are 0-2 vs. the Cavs in 2020-21 (and 0-9 SU in all division games!). The day after X-Mas saw the Pistons blow a late lead and lose in double overtime. Then it was a rare hot shooting night for Cleveland (at home) in the second meeting. The Cavs have a per game point differential of -7.3 (Detroit just -3.8, which is actually better than three teams in the East, including the Wizards). I just faded the Cavs as a short road dog against a Chicago team that had dropped five in a row and that turned out to be an easy win. Cleveland has also lost four of five and should NOT be favored in this one. 10* Detroit

7* LA Angels (9:35 ET): The Angels are certainly well-rested as they head into tonight’s series opener with the division rival Rangers. They had two games with the Twins postponed over the weekend due to COVID-19 (issue was with Minnesota). While that had to be a bit disappointing considering the Halos took the series opener 10-3, they’ll gladly take the time off. Overall, it’s an 8-5 start to the season and they are among the league leaders in runs scored this season. I envision an easy win over the last place Rangers. 

Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, who were scheduled to pitch Saturday and Sunday, will be skipped in the rotation so that Dylan Bundy can make his regularly scheduled start tonight. Bundy has arguably been the Angels’ best pitcher in the early going, though he does not have a win. But he has a 3.32 ERA and 1.053 WHIP through three starts and has been successful in the past vs. Texas with a 5-1 record and 2.91 ERA in nine previous appearances (seven starts). Bundy has turned in three quality starts so far and has 22 strikeouts in 19 IP. 

This line has definitely been steamed up. But for the reasons listed above (Angels’ rest, Bundy), it’s easy to understand why that is. Plus, the Rangers are off a three-game series in Baltimore where they managed just four runs! They did win yesterday 1-0, but it’s difficult to win that way. Not only have they scored just 1 run each of the L2 days, the Rangers have already been shutout three times this season. Starter Kohei Arihara will try to keep them in this one, but the problem is he’s backed by a bullpen that’s been horrendous on the road (7.07 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). Texas is 4-9 off a shutout win the L2 seasons. 7* LA Angels

10* San Diego (10:05 ET): The Padres came into the 2021 season with incredible expectations and I’m a little impressed that they haven’t collapsed under the weight of them. Remember that Fernando Tatis Jr missed about two weeks with an injury and hasn’t played particularly well when in the lineup. But the team is now 10-7 after salvaging a game with the Dodgers on Sunday. I think “brighter times” are ahead for a San Diego team that should be one of the National League’s best clubs. 

Not only is Milwaukee off an extra innings loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they head to the West Coast without Christian Yelich (2018 MVP), Kolten Wong and Lorenzo Cain. This team is not hitting well as four regulars are below .200 and the team has scored just 66 runs in 15 games. So look for the Brewers to REALLY struggle at the plate tonight as they must face Joe Musgrove, who has a 0.47 ERA and 0.474 WHIP through three starts, including a no-hitter. So far, Musgrove has allowed just ONE run in 19 IP and has a 24-2 KW ratio. 

The Brew Crew counter with Brandon Woodruff, who’s off to a fine start to the season himself. But it’s not as good as Musgrove’s and he’s facing a tougher lineup today. Given their lack of hitting, Milwaukee probably should have even fewer runs scored this year. The absences from the lineup are significant and I think too tough to overcome. It was almost two years ago, but the last time the Brewers came to Petco Park, they got swept. SD is 26-10 L36 as a home favorite and 18-8 L26 series openers. 10* San Diego

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): The Magic are obviously a team in complete disarray right now, but this is a massive number for the Hawks to be laying at the betting window. Even though they’ve won 8 of 10, Atlanta still has only two wins by more than 12 points this month and both were against New Orleans. This is a more familiar opponent, one that has won and covered six of the previous nine meetings. When these teams played last month in Orlando, it was only a three-point win for the Hawks. They did cover as 2.5-point chalk, but the line has obviously grown significantly larger for tonight’s rematch.

Orlando has just one win in its last nine games (115-106 at Chicago on 4/14) and now is the “proud owner” of the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Perhaps “rock bottom” occurred on Sunday night when they lost at home to a Rockets team that has won only four games since Feb 4. While I do not expect the Magic to win tonight’s game, I do expect them to keep it close. It was really just one bad quarter that killed them Sunday and they still only ended up losing by four. The Magic are 5-2 ATS L7 as road dogs. 

Atlanta has been asked to lay double digits only one other time all season and that came all the way back on December 28th against the Pistons. They won that game, but only by eight points. Subsequently, there have been only a handful of times where they’ve had to lay seven or more points. Twice they lost outright. That they blew all of a 20-point lead against Indiana Sunday night is a concern, even though they still wound up winning that game by 12. The Hawks have a bigger game tomorrow night at New York to worry about. Take the points. 10* Orlando

8* Over Dodgers/Mariners (4:10 ET): Though they’ve been held to just seven runs total over the L3 games (and LOST to Mariners 4-3 yday), you’ve got to like the Dodgers chances to “break out” offensive today. They will be facing embattled Seattle starter Marco Gonzales, who has an 8.22 ERA and 1.761 WHIP this year. Despite the lack of production at the plate the L3 games, Los Angeles is still averaging 5.5 runs per game and the addition of a DH (AL park) their lineup obviously becomes more potent. 

Jose Urias will start for the Dodgers today, hoping for a better effort than what he gave his last time out. Urias allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings against Colorado last Thursday, ironically way more than he allowed when he faced the Rockies at Coors Field earlier in the month. The Dodgers still won the game, 7-5, and the Over is now 11-1 in Urias’ last 12 starts. The fewest number of runs scored by the Dodgers in any Urias start during that time is four. They’ve AVERAGED 7.5 runs in those 12 games. 

Like I said earlier, Gonzales figures to struggle facing the NL’s highest scoring offense. He was better in his last start, but that was against Baltimore. The first two starts saw him allow 12 runs in 10 ⅓ IP. He’s also already allowed six home runs. Again, facing the already loaded Dodgers lineup plus a DH is a tough task. In his only previous start here at home, Gonzales gave up three home runs. The Dodgers’ lineup has homered in every game but three this season and all but one since the first two games. 8* Over Dodgers/Mariners

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals got embarrassed at home last night, losing 12-5 to a Cardinals team they took two of three from in St. Louis last week. Interestingly enough, their two losses to the Redbirds this season have both been really ugly. (The other was 14-3). But just like they bounced back from the previous one (with a 6-0 win), I expect them to do well tonight. Neither starter has performed well yet this season, but the Cardinals’ overall inconsistency (haven’t won B2B games in 12 days) sticks out. 

Washington’s Pat Corbin has a 21.33 ERA and 3.002 WHIP after two starts. That’s the bad news. The good news is that there’s only one way for those numbers to go from here. He exited after only two innings his last time out, but not before being charged with 10 runs (allowed 3 HRs). His first start wasn’t much better as he allowed six runs, albeit on just six hits. So why the endorsement for tonight? Well, St. Louis is just 1-4 this season after scoring 6+ runs the last time and they’ve been held to three runs or less in four of those games (shutout twice). 

The Nats are also 2-0 this season after giving up 10+ runs. They face Adam Wainwright, whose three starts have resulted in a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP. The lone one on the road saw him get absolutely hammered for six runs in 2 ⅔ innings. The Cardinals hit five home runs yesterday, a feat they cannot count on regularly occurring, so look for a relatively “silent night” at the plate from them and the home team to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. 10* Washington

10* Arminia Bielefeld (2:30 ET): While it may seem strange to select a match between two bottom of the table sides as our biggest Bundesliga release of the month, this one has major implications for Bielefeld as they try to remain in the German top flight next year. Having gone unbeaten in their last three, last season’s Bundesliga 2 champs are now one point clear of the relegation playoff and four clear of automatic relegation. The cause has certainly been helped by the fact that Hertha Berlin, the team directly below them, has been on pause due to COVID-19. Three points here would be HUGE and Bielefeld couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent Tuesday.

Schalke has just 15 points to play for this season and they are 14 points back of safety. So unless they win out and the three teams above them all lose out, their relegation fate is all but sealed. Considering this side has just TWO wins this entire Bundesliga campaign, the idea of winning out seems downright laughable. There was a rare 1-0 win (over Augsburg) two weeks ago, but coming off that I couldn’t wait to fade Schalke on Saturday. Sure enough, they were beaten badly in a 4-0 defeat.

As was the case Saturday, this price is shockingly cheap to go against the last place team in the table, on the road no less. Schalke’s YTD goal differential now sits at an abhorrent -57, more than twice as bad as the next worst team (Koln is -26). They have 10 fewer points than 17th place Koln. Relegation is inevitable. That’s not the case though for Bielefeld, who won the reverse fixture 1-0 back in December. Making matters even worse for Schalke is that they’ll be without a number of first team regulars here. The team they field Tuesday will be about as bad as it gets in this league. 10* Arminia Bielefeld.