Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

10* Sodiq Yusuff (9:15 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds at flyweight (125 lbs). While it has the chance to be one of the more exciting and action-packed bouts on tonight’s card, I’m taking Yusuff to win. 

Yusuff comes in sporting a 10-1 record. Having made his way into the UFC via Dana White’s “Contender Series,” Yusuff has won his last five fights, three of them in the first round. His only loss was in 2017 and he’s improved tremendously since then. He looked great in August’s 1st round TKO of Gabriel Benitez. Yusuff is the stronger and more athletic fighter here.

Fili is also on a win streak, but the lack of a good defensive game makes it tough to believe he’ll emerge victorious here. Unlike Yusuff, Fili has multiple losses on his resume, six to be exact. He was 2-0 last year, but lost once in 2018. Coming off a 1st round KO himself, it feels as if Fili is a little bit overvalued for this fight. Before that last win, he hadn’t stopped an opponent since 2015.  10* Sodiq Yusuff

8* Houston (8:35 ET): It should be a good one for this first installment of Saturday night NBA on ABC. But a number of factors are pointing me in the direction of the Rockets. First off, while both teams come in off a loss, Houston is clearly more desperate. They’ve actually lost two in a row to fall to fifth in a very top-heavy Western Conference. Losing by 10 at home to Portland Thursday night was kind of shocking, but the Rockets are 6-1 ATS this season off a double digit loss. That makes it seem quite logical to lay the short number. 

The Lakers’ loss to Orlando Wednesday night was by just a single point (119-118) and ended a nine-game win streak. They hadn’t lost since X-Mas. All season, the Lakers have lost just three times by double digits and they are 22-1 SU vs. sub-.500 teams. The one loss was to Orlando as both Anthony Davis and Rajon Rondo sat. Both are officially listed as questionable for tonight. Against teams with winning records, the Lakers are a more “mortal” 11-7.

This is only the second time the Rockets have lost two in a row this season. They did have a three-game losing skid in November, but otherwise have been a “safe bet” off a loss. Two straight losses as a favorite is a first, so again they’ll be the more “desperate” side tonight. This one simply means more to them. 8* Houston

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Up next in the 3-pack is the Flyers, who could REALLY use a win here as they’ve fallen off the furious pace set by the top four teams in the Metro. In fact, they’ve actually fallen into sixth place in the division, thanks to a less than stellar start to the New Year. They’ve lost six of nine overall and just dropped a game to Montreal here at home on Thursday. But this is also a team that prior to that 4-1 defeat had just beaten both Boston and St. Louis, last year’s two Stanley Cup Finalists. 

Los Angeles has a lot bigger concerns than Philly right now. They are the last place team in the Pacific and their 41 points are the fewest in the whole Western Conference. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, including three straight on the road. Tonight marks the end of a week-long trip that began with them getting shutout last Saturday in Carolina. Since then, it’s been subsequent 4-3 losses to Tampa Bay and Florida.

This is a revenge game for the Flyers, who lost 5-3 out in LA on New Year’s Eve. That came in the middle of a six-game West Coast swing and they lost the next three games as well. But the Flyers have been a much better home team this year, going 15-4-4 SU in the City of Brotherly Love and their scoring differential here is quite large as they average 3.5 goals per game while giving up only 2.3. Everything here points to the Flyers getting revenge for that loss on New Year’s Eve. LA trailed 4-0 at one point in its last game. 8* Philadelphia

7* Puck Line New Jersey (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only. I am backing the Devils at +1.5. Columbus has surged recently, winning three straight and 7 of its last 9 games. But do not count out the underdog in this one. Over the last four games, New Jersey has played Washington twice, Tampa Bay and Toronto. That’s a tough gauntlet. They won at Washington and also snapped the Lightning’s long win streak. So they are certainly capable of pulling the upset here. 

Even with the “surge” here in 2020, the Blue Jackets still grade out as a pretty average team. They’ve scored just one more goal than what they’ve allowed over the course of the season. Prior to these L3 games, they obviously had a negative goal differential. Also note that three of Columbus’ last six wins came by one goal. That result would give us a win here based on how we’re playing this matchup. 

New Jersey has scored only one fewer goal than Columbus this season. The big difference then is obviously the other side of the ledger where the Blue Jackets have allowed basically 40 fewer goals. But they’re also only 3-10 SU in Saturday games this season. C-bus was outshot 34-18 by Carolina its last game. New Jersey’s power play is set to improve as they have gotten healthier. 7* Puck Line New Jersey (+1.5)

8* Calgary (4:00 ET): The Flames are tied for the Pacific Division lead with 57 points, but a negative goal differential (-9) for the year would seem to indicate that they’ve overachieved. Certainly, the club is nowhere near as dominant as it was a season ago when it finished first in the entire Western Conference with 107 points. Normally, that distinction might have me looking to fade, but Calgary is lucky here in that they are drawing a very weak opponent. Ottawa not only has a -36 goal differential this year, they’ve also lost nine in a row and are second to last in the Atlantic Division.

If playing against Ottawa seems familiar, well, that’s because I just did on Thursday. It was a win with Vegas, right here in Canada’s capital city. The Golden Knights prevailed 4-2, outshooting the Senators 43-35 and it was 4-1 before Ottawa notched a relatively meaningless power play goal with 7:30 to go. The Sens have been outscored 38-19 during their losing streak, a 2:1 margin, and that’s a frighteningly low number of total goals scored. 

Despite still being “in the red” goal differential wise, the Flames have won six of their last seven games. The only loss was a head-scratcher at Montreal, a team that (like Ottawa) came in on a long losing streak. Because they lost that game, I expect the Flames to be “on their toes” here, just like they were in an impressive win at Toronto Thursday night. A win here makes it a winning trip through Eastern Canada. In Calgary, the Flames had no problem beating the Senators 3-1 in late November. They were priced very high for that game so we’re getting a bargain here on the road. 8* Calgary

10* Arizona (2:30 ET): Last Sunday, we touted Arizona as our Game of the Week and they failed. It was an embarrassing loss at Oregon State where the Wildcats went down 82-65. In our analysis for that game, I made it pretty clear that Arizona was better than its record shows. In fact, I’d go so far as to call this one of the most underrated teams in the country at this point! They bounced back from Sunday’s loss w/ a nice 93-77 beatdown of Utah here in Tucson Thursday night. Now it’s time to take care of Colorado.

Colorado comes in ranked #20 in the country. They are one of just two Pac 12 teams ranked in the current AP Poll (Stanford is #25 in the Coaches). But, by now, I’m sure you’ve noticed this line which would certainly seem to indicate that unranked Arizona is better in the eyes of the oddsmakers. I definitely agree with that assertion and the oddsmakers are usually better than the pollsters anyway. I’ll take things a step further and call Arizona the best team in the Pac 12 despite what the WL records may say. 

Arizona is 12-5 SU on the season. But before Oregon State got them on Sunday, the previous four losses had all been by five points or fewer. Three of the losses were to top 10 teams including Gonzaga & Baylor, who are currently 1-2. At home, the Wildcats are 10-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 25.6 PPG. So there’s no hesitation to lay the points here. Colorado had a nice road win Thursday, 68-61 at Arizona State, but as those who follow the Pac 12 closely will tell you, it’s the second road game of the weekend that usually gets you. The Buffaloes have dropped 20 of their last 29 “true” road games. 10* Arizona