Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

8* Under Rockies/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Finally the Dodgers are starting to assert themselves the way I thought they would. Obviously, it helps being a -200 favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but they beat the Rockies last night (3-2 in 10 innings) and have opened up a 1.5 game lead in the NL West. For months, I've been saying how LA is the vastly superior team in this division as they own the National League's best run differential (now +153) while Colorado has actually been outscored this season. That means the Rockies are basically playing to the level of a slightly below .500 team. Thus, I don't see them being able to turn things around tonight in this finale of the three-game set. The price is too steep on the Dodgers again, but I do like the Under here. 

Walker Buehler will look to follow Kershaw's performance last night. He's been doing a good job of that most of this season. Buehler has emerged as a very dependable #2 starter in this rotation w/ a 1.75 ERA since July 31st. He's allowe 2 ER or fewer in eight of nine starts during that span and last time out threw eight shutout innings (allowed only two hits!) in a huge performance at St. Louis. The only time Buehler allowed more than 2 ER in those L9 starts came at Colorado, which is traditionally the most hitter-friendly park in MLB. However, Dodger Stadium is quite the opposite w/ an average of only 8.0 rpg scored here. Only a handful of parks (four, to be exact) see fewer runs per game scored and three of those are due to the inept offenses of the home team. The Dodgers allow the fewest number of rpg at home of any team in the NL. 

So switching venues from Coors Field to Dodger Stadium is definitely huge. Buehler has a 1.62 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in 10 home starts this season and the Under is 9-1. With the home team favored so prohibitively, there's a very good chance we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth inning tonight, which can be a big deal when playing an Under. Colorado only averages 4.2 rpg on the road w/ a .228 batting average. They've scored a total of seven runs their last five games, all of which have come on the road. The only "X-factor" here is Rockies' starter Tyler Anderson, but he pitched well in his last outing, holding San Francisco to just two runs in six innings. He had six strikeouts and no walks. The Dodgers can be "hot and cold" offensively as they've scored three runs or less in 5 of the last 11 games. 8* Under Rockies/Dodgers 

10* San Diego (9:10 ET): This level of endorsement from me is certainly rare when it comes to the Padres. But they've lost six in a row to the Giants and it's "high time" that streak comes to an end. The Padres were actually the bettors choice last night (money line bet way up), but they lost 5-4 after giving up a two-run single to Chris Shaw in the top of the eighth. Remember that it wasn't that long ago the Giants had lost 11 in a row. They turned things around by taking two of three from Colorado over the weekend, and I had them in both wins, but that series was at home. With wins in the first two games of this series, they've now won four of five, but this is still very much a bad road team by any objective measure. Their record away from home this year is 31-46. 

Starting here for the Padres will be Robbie Erlin. While I certainly wouldn't say he's pitched well this year, last time out Erlin made in through 5 1/3 innings while giving up only two runs and one was unearned. He also finished w/ 6 K's and 0 walks. San Diego still lost mind you, 4-0 to Texas. But at least it was a step in the right direction for Erlin. “I thought he was as good as he’s been all year as a starter," said skipper Andy Green about Erlin's last performance. Tonight will be the first time the Giants have faced Erlin in a starter's role this season. While Erlin has never beaten the Giants, the Bay Area native is poised to do so here. San Fran has swept just two road series all season and won three straight on the road only three times. The Padres have gone 6-1 the L7 times after allowing 5+ runs the previous game.

The last time we saw Chris Stratton pitch for the Giants, he threw his 1st ever complete game shutout. It was at home vs. the Rockies and I was on him. As good as he looked there, Stratton still has a 4.06 ERA his L7 starts and, generally speaking, has been fairly inconsistent this year. He still has a 5.03 ERA on the road w/ the team going just 5-7 in 12 starts. His L3 road starts have not gone well as he's allowed 18 runs in just 13 2/3 innings. He's allowed 25 hits as well, three of them home runs and has just nine strikeouts. While those three games were against teams better than the Padres, Stratton just hasn't been consistent enough for my liking. The Padres did beat him in San Francisco back in June. 10* San Diego