Bryan Power’s Free College Basketball Against the Spread Predictions

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies were totally embarrassed by the Giants yesterday, getting swept in a doubleheader and scoring only three runs in the hitter-friendly home park. The first game of the day-night twinbill was especially humiliating as they lost 19-2! The second game, while closer, was no less painful as it brought a 2-1 defeat. That brought the Giants to 19-10 in one-run games this year and 45-49 overall, masking the fact that this team has been outscored by 45 runs. This is a really good price on Colorado at home as they're out for revenge. 

It wasn't that long ago that Rockies' starter Pete Lambert was being touted as a prized prospect. His first two big league starts (both against the Cubs) went really well as he allowed only two runs and seven hits across 12 innings. But in the four subsequent outings, the wheels have come off a bit. Two were against the Dodgers and three came here at Coors. I think it's far too soon to give up on this rookie though and the Giants have never faced him before. Also, while SF enters tonight on a three-game win streak, be aware that they are just 2-6 this season when on a streak of that length.  

I just can't see the Rockies losing again here after being swept in a doubleheader yday. As much concern as there may be over Lambert, I can't foresee the Giants' Drew Pomeranz pitching well tonight. He has a 9.76 ERA and 1.988 WHIP on the road to begin with and Coors is obviously the toughest venue in the league to pitch. Five of Pomeranz's last six starts have come at home, including the last three. In his previous two road starts, he has allowed a total of 15 ER in just 5 2/3 IP. The Rockies are 8-3 their L11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Colorado 

10* Over White Sox/Royals (8:15 ET): This is an interesting matchup. Because while Chicago is 11.5 games AHEAD of KC in the AL Central, that happens to be as misleading as any deficit in the entire MLB standings. The Royals actually have the better YTD run differential (-85 vs. -90) and thus it was not a shock to me to see them take last night's series opener, 5-2. The fact that the White Sox come in favored for a second straight day seems a bit "off" to me, but this is a game where I expect both clubs to score in bunches and thus Over is my call for Tuesday. 

At least the White Sox had Lucas Giolito on the mound last night. That alone probably justified the oddsmakers' line, but it didn't matter as Chicago did little offensively and Giolito lost to the Royals for the 1st time in his career. Starting tonight will be the unproven Dylan Cease, whose only previous big league start saw him allow three runs in 5 IP to a Detroit team that has scored the fewest # of runs in the American League. The game, which took place 12 days ago, was a 7-5 final in the White Sox favor and did go Over the total. 

Chicago hasn't won since the All-Star Break, so the regression that their run differential seemed to indicate would happen, has taken hold. Meanwhile, KC has improved its standing by winning three of four since the Break. But they'll need to bring their bats today w/ Glenn Sparkman on the bump as he has a 10.43 ERA and 2.045 WHIP his L3 starts. Now all three came on the road and he has pitched better at home. But the Over is 17-6-2 in KC's last 25 home games vs. a team w/ a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. The White Sox are 17-28 away from Guaranteed Rate Field. 10* Over White Sox/Royals

8* Over Pirates/Cardinals (8:15 ET): St. Louis shut Pittsburgh out last night, 7-0. Not to "toot my own horn," but a Pirates' downfall is something I projected long ago and that's exactly what has taken place. The Bucs are 0-4 since the All-Star Break and have scored only 10 runs. They are a team that has had a poor run differential most of the year (currently -55) so the fact they've been able to stay within a few games of .500 in a wide open division seems extremely fortunate. For tonight, I'll call for them to at least put some runs on the board. Now that may not mean victory, but I do see this NL Central matchup going Over the total.

St. Louis has climbed past Milwaukee into second place in the crowded Central by virtue of winning their last three games. Only five teams have allowed fewer runs this season, so last night's shutout win can hardly be described as "shocking." But the Redbirds also had Miles Mikolas on the hill Monday and he tends to pitch very well here at Busch Stadium. Now the same could be said for tonight's starter Jack Flaherty, however his last start here at home did NOT go well as he allowed seven runs in just 4 2/3 IP and that was to an American League lineup (Oakland) playing w/o its DH. 

The Pirates have been one of the top Over teams in all of baseball this season. Their O/U record is 54-35-3, making them one of only three teams to go Over in at least 60% of their games. They went into the All-Star Break having gone Over in five straight. Tonight Dario Agrazal will get the start. While he's been satisfactory so far, it's a small sample size of only three starts. Agrazal has gotten a TON of run support his last two times out w/ the Pirates scoring 26 runs in those games. The Over is 23-6 in Pittsburgh's last 29 games off a loss. 8* Over Pirates/Cardinals

8* Under D'backs/Rangers (8:05 ET): Though it's been established that Arizona is a better team on the road this year and Texas can certainly score too, I see this Interleague matchup staying Under on Tuesday. That may seem counter-intuitive given the offensive increase from the Diamondbacks on the road and they're getting a DH added to the lineup here. But in the end, we've got two quality starting pitchers set to face off and that should make for a lower scoring game than anticipated. Take the Under. 

Arizona has seen its last six games all stay Under. Over the weekend, they lost two of three out in St. Louis. They scored only eight runs in the three games. Despite being just .500 overall, the D'backs do have the NL's 4th best run differential, which is surprising. Only five teams in the NL have surrendered fewer runs. Today they turn to Alex Young, whose first two starts have gone very well. He's allowed just 1 run in 11 IP and his last time out saw him toss six no-hit innings! Both starts resulted in easy Unders and I'm counting on Young holding the Rangers' lineup in check here. The Arizona staff has allowed a .197 BA its L7 games. 

Texas is one of the bigger surprises in the American League as they're in the Wild Card hunt after back to back losing seasons. Now they were swept by Houston to start the second half while giving up 27 runs in the process (Over hit in all three games). But Lance Lynn has been one of the Rangers' best pitchers this season and he goes tonight. Lynn is 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. He's also unbeaten (8-0) in 10 starts here in Arlington. Having spent time in the National League, he's had plenty of success in the past vs. Arizona, going 6-0 w/ a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts against them. Earlier this year, in Phoenix, he held them to one run and four hits in 6 IP. 8* Under D'backs/Rangers

8* Under Padres/Marlins (7:10 ET): The last time we saw Miami's Jordan Yamamoto, he did his job in holding Atlanta (a good offensive team!) scoreless over six innings of two-hit ball. Even though the Marlins ended up losing that game 1-0, the result was fine for me as I had Yamamoto and the Fish +1.5 on the run line. As Yamamoto is set to make his sixth start of the season (3-0 w/ 1.86 ERA, 0.931 WHIP), I will again call for him to pitch well as tonight he faces a floundering San Diego club which got swept (by Atlanta) to start the second half. But of course, we must be wary of the lack of offense from Miami as well. So I'm taking the Under in what should be a low-scoring game. 

The Marlins have in fact scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball this season. There was a point, early on, when they were on pace to score the fewest runs in a season going all the way back to the "Dead Ball era." Things have picked up some, but they still only average 3.6 rpg and they've scored a fewer number here at home compared to the road. Tonight they're going up against Logan Allen, who had looked good in his first two starts before a shaky one on July 1st vs. San Francisco. I think he'll be fine here against a Marlins lineup that produced only 2 runs in each of its last two games. 

San Diego has seen the Under hit in six of its last seven contests w/ them failing to score more than five runs in any of those contests. They've crossed the plate just 21 times during that stretch, so this is an ideal matchup for Yamamoto, who hasn't allowed any runs in three of his five starts so far. The only drawback for the Marlins here seems to be their anemic offense as the Padres have done a good job at limiting runs recently, giving up only 34 in those L7 games. The Under is also 6-2-1 in Miami's last nine overall. 8* Under Padres/Marlins

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies are facing the prospect of getting swept in a four-game series in their home ballpark. They and the Giants played a doubleheader Monday and while the second game was certainly close (lost 2-1), the first was most definitely NOT (lost 19-2). Last night was closer than the 8-4 final suggests as the game went into extra innings after a three-run Colorado rally in the bottom of the ninth. But still, they gave up four runs in the 10th and lost for the fourth time in the last five games. I can't see the Rockies being swept though. Not by the Giants. 

You do have to expect the hitting will start to improve for Colorado. They average 6.6 runs per game here at Coors, the highest scoring average at home of any team in baseball, which is not surprising given the repuatation of the park itself. Today, they face a rookie (Shaun Anderson) that will be pitching for the very first time in Coors. It's not as if Anderson's numbers are all that impressive as he's got 6.13 ERA and 1.772 WHIP his L3 starts, even though the Giants have won all three games. Their scoring is due to subside here as they rank 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS.

Jon Gray gives his team what I feel is a sizable edge today. He's actually 4-1 w/ a 3.26 ERA in eight home starts, which is very good all things considered. The team's record in those eight starts is 6-2 and seven of them have actually stayed Under. Gray's last start was here in Coors and was a quality one as he held the Reds to two runs in seven innings. He also beat Clayton Kershaw here, 5-3, late last month in another quality effort. Gray has faced the Giants twice this season, both times in San Francisco, and allowed only one run and nine hits in 12 2/3 IP. 8* Colorado

8* Under Giants/Rockies (3:10 ET): I've had some success playing totals at Coors Field over the last week. Given the reputation of the ballpark, you'd figure I'd be inclined to bet the Over and that's precisely what I did w/ last week's top O/U release as the Rockies and Reds combined for 26 runs here (Rockies LOST 19-7). But the Rockies haven't done much scoring in their current series, totaling only seven runs in three games against the Giants. As a result, they're 0-3, including an 8-4 loss last night. I'm on the Under today as the Rockies look to avoid the sweep.

Last night's final score is misleading in the sense that the game went to extra innings (Giants scored 4 in the 10th) and was a 2-1 game heading into the 8th. The Rockies tied things up at 4-4 w/ a three-run ninth, but it was not to be as they lost for a third time in two days to San Francisco. The teams played a doubleheader Monday w/ the Giants winning 19-2 and 2-1. So as you can see, Colorado really hasn't done much scoring. Until the ninth inning yday, they'd scored only four runs in 26 innings against Giants pitching. Yet the total is still really high today. 

The good news for Colorado today is that they have Jon Gray on the mound. He has a 4-1 record and 3.26 ERA in eight starts at Coors this season, which is quite respectable. It's not like the Giants have a strong lineup. Game 1 of the doubleheader on Monday was a complete aberration. While there's been a recent increase in scoring, they still rank 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Under is 7-1 in those eight home starts made by Gray as well. Facing a rookie making his Coors debut (Shaun Anderson), the Rockies will probably score more today. But not enough to send this one Over. 8* Under Giants/Rockies