Will Rogers

The set-up: Texas rolled to a 7-3 win over the Cards last night, but I’m expecting much more of a “duel” this evening. The home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado, while the visitors try to bounce back with Dakota Hudson on the bump.

The pitchers: Jurado (1-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his first start of the year. Last year he started eight games. He most recently gave up two runs over three innings to the Royals.

Hudson (2-3, 4.61) most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Pirates last weekend. Despite going 0-2 in three starts in May, Hudson owns a very respectable 3.18 ERA in that span.

The pick: St. Louis is struggling at the plate (getting outscored 21-5 in losing its last three games) and I don’t see anything changing here suddenly either. Look for these competent starters to battle deep.

Texas Rangers/STL Cardinals UNDER

8* play

The set-up: Despite Aaron Nola’s sub-par 2019 start, I still think this is a major mismatch on the mound and because of that, I have no issues at all in laying this price. The visitors counter with Antonio Senzatela. 

The pitchers: Senzatela (3-2, 5.35 ERA) gave up two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. Over 22.1 innings of work he owns a pedestrian 13:8 K:BB. He’s been better on the road than at home, but note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies. 

Nola (3-0, 4.86) comes in off consecutive strong outings. Note that he’s 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA at home. In fact Nola has given up just six runs over his last four starts. He’s also 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA vs. the Rockies lifetime. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is just 3-8 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while Philly is 10-5 as a -150 fav or higher. I think Nola is the correct call here. Lay the price.

Philadelphia Phillies

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The set-up: The Dodgers cruised to a victory in the opener of this series yesterday and I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value to take the second in similar fashion. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side counters with Tyler Mahle. 

The pitchers: Buehler (4-0, 4.14 ERA) has looked stronger with each start in 2019. In two May starts he’s struck out 15 batters and his fast ball is reaching 99 MPH. Most recently he went seven scoreless vs. the Nationals.

Mahle (0-5, 3.97) has thrown better than what his record would indicate, but note that the Red safe still 1-7 in his starts and 0-6 in his last six. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 17-8 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is already just 5-15 as an underdog this season. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. 

LA Dodgers

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Selection: Texas Rangers/STL Cardinals UNDER

Analysis to come. 8* play

The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

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The set-up: The Sharks were average on the road this year, but great at home. St. Louis had its hands full in Game 4 though, but it would hold on for a 2-1 win in front of the home town crowd. Note that St. Louis is 27-22 on the road, averaging 2.80 goals and conceding 2.45 in those contest. The Sharks are 32-19 at home though. averaging 3.67 goals and allowing 2.86 in those games. I do indeed think that “home ice” will be the difference for the Sharks this evening.  

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while St. Louis is still only 7-16 in its last 23 playoff games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s loss with their ever improving “ace” on the hill. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Miley (4-2, 3.51 ERA) most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Tigers on May 14th. Unfortunately a date vs. the Red Sox is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as note that he’s just 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four career outings vs. them. 

Sale (1-5, 4.24) has returned to his dominant form in May, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over three outings, posting 41 K’s and a single walk spanning 21 innings of work. Sale has to be feeling confident here as well as he’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Sale’s agonizingly slow start to the season continues to drive the southpaws price down right now. Great value on the surging Sale. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

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The set-up: Toronto has looked competitive in both games up until the fourth quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Bucks have pulled away each time for the cover. In an essentially “do or die” scenario, I’m expecting Toronto to battle tough here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far Milwaukee has rolled through its competition, but I believe the shift in venue North of the border finally leads to a letdown here from the Deer. The Raptors were better at home than on the road all season and if not now, when? 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following a home win by ten points or more. I’m laying the price and taking the home side on the money line here. 

Toronto Raptors (Moneyline)

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