Will Rogers

The set-up: Miami comes in “dog tired” here after its loss in Milwaukee just last night. Washington’s playoff hopes took another hit with its 113-108 home loss to Denver on Thursday. The Heat have gone 2-1 so far in this series. But Miami is playing the fourth game of a four game trip, including the second in two nights. The last thing the Heat want to do is to turn tonight’s contest into a “track meet.” Miami is 5-5 in the second game of back-to-back situational this year, averaging 109.8 points and conceding 107.1 in those contests. The Wizards enter having lost three straight. Over their last ten game they’re 4-6, allowing 117.4 points during that stretch. 

The pick: However note that the Wizards have seen the total go “under” the number in four of five already this year off a cover where the team lost the game SU as an underdog. Additionally note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 22 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. This number is high, play the “under.”

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The set-up: Both teams come in off losses, but the Coyotes are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I believe they’ll bounce back in this favorable spot. Arizona lost 4-3 to Florida on the road, while New Jersey comes in off a 5-1 home loss to Boston. Going into their Eastern road trip the Coyotes had the eighth spot locked down, but after back-to-back losses, they’re now tied with Colorado. Coyotes’ goaltender Darcy Kuemper remains a respectable 11-12 with a 2.83 GAA on the road this season. The Devils are just counting down the days to the off season. New Jersey goaltender Cory Schneider is 5-15 with a 3.18 GAA on the year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 5-1 in its last six as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range, while New Jersey is 21-48 in its last 69 as a home underdog. New Jersey has lost three straight, getting outscored 12-2 in those games. Go with the desperate Coyotes to get back on track in a big way in this favorable matchup. Lay it.

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The set-up: Chicago has been on fire in the second half and it finds itself sitting at one game over .500. However the Hawks will be desperate to break a two-game slide and to gain some precious ground with limited time left on the equally as hungry Avs. The Avs are currently tied with the Coyotes for eighth spot, so they can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here either. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as more of a wide open shootout, than a slower-paced defensive battle.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 19 this year trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Colorado has seen the total go “over” in all five games that it’s played in this season after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.” This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

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The set-up: Both teams “survived” their opening rounds and neither can be ver happy with they it performed. Neither covered the spread. The Terrapins advanced with a 79-77 win over Belmont, having to play “catch up” the entire game after falling behind by 13 early, while LSU held on for a 79-75 victory over Yale. Maryland averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 65.4, while LSU averages 81.3 PPG, while allowing 73.1. However, after both teams’ lacklustre efforts in the first rounds, I’m expecting each to push the pace from start to finish in Round 2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten when playing with one or less days rest, while LSU has seen the total fly “over” in 15 of its last 20 as a neutral four favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: The Tigers have won nine straight after holding on for a 78-77 win over New Mexico State on Thursday. Kansas has won four of its last five after destroying Northeastern 87-53 in Round 1. Auburn averages 78.9 PPG and it concedes 68.8. Kansas averages 75.7 PPG, while allowing 69.6.

The pick: Not only does Auburn have the advantage on paper, but note that it’s also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU win, while Kansas is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. I think this is a matchup which favors the SEC. Lay the short points.

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The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range. 

The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.

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