Will Rogers

The set-up: These teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the "situation" that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with strong O/U trends that each has exhibited in this spot, both point to the "under" as the being the correct call this afternoon. This is the start of a six-game strip for the Clippers. These teams have already met twice and each has won on its home floor. Both games went over the number. Both teams come in on extended win streaks. Note though that each team is playing without key players today, as Paul George won't suit up for the Clippers and JJ Reddick and Jrue Holiday are out for New Orleans. 

The pick: Note that the Clippers have seen the total go under the number in ten of 14 already this season after a non-conference game and in seven of ten after a home win by ten points or more, while the Pelicans have seen the total dip under in both games they've played in this year after scoring 130 points or more in their previous outing. All things considered, this number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Pelicans.

The set-up: Georgia State is 13-6 and it's won three straight. I think it gets caught looking past this desperate Troy home side, which has lost two in a row and five of its last six. Note though that Georgia State is just 4-6 in true road games this season. Georgia State has the better offense, but note that Troy is 5-4 at home. Also note that each team won its home floor in last year's season series. 

The pick: Note as well the Georiga State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following three game SU/ATS unbeaten streak, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after a three-games or more losing streak and as an underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final moments. 

8* SLAM-DUNK on Troy.

The set-up: Elon comes in under the radar here, but hungry as ever after losing four of its last five games. Most recently the Phoenix fell 63-41 to Drexel. Delaware has lost four of five, most recently falling 77-68 to William and Mary. The Blue Hens are the better team on paper, but I think they get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that Delaware is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 following a SU loss, while Elon is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

9* DESTRUCTION on Elon.

The set-up: After falling to Kansas to open league play, WVU has rattled off thee straight Big 12 victories and it enters at 14-2 overall. K-State comes in as the "hungrier" team though as it's lost nine of its last 12. The Wildcats will be looking to get off the schneid here and earn their first conference victory of the year. The Wildcats are sharp defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 61.8 PPG on average. WVU averages only 72.1 PPG and I believe it'll have its hands full with his now desperate home side. 

The pick: Additionally note that WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten conference road games after three or more SU/ATS victories, while K-State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more losses and as an underdog of five points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this contest to be decided in the final moments.

10* CASH-BOMB on Kansas State.

The set-up: Both teams are "hungry" for a win here. Sacramento has lost three in a row and they're just 7-13 on the road. After falling 127-123 to the Mavs last time out, I believe the Kings double down on the defensive end this evening. The Jazz are 15-3 at home and they're 9-1 in their last ten overall. Utah's back on track, but note that they'll be out for some defensive redemption here after losing 138-132 to the lowly Pelicans in OT last time out. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that the Pels have seen the total dip under in nine of their last 12 as a road dog, while the Jazz have seen the total go under in 11 of their last 15 in revenging a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less and in 12 of their last 16 after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. This number is a tad high.

9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Kings/Jazz.

The set-up: In the final game before the All Star break, I believe Buffalo will simply "go through the motions" this evening. The Sabres are just 8-13-4 on the road this year, while the Predators are 10-9-4 at home. Buffalo comes in on a win streak, while Nashville enters on a losing streak. This sets up perfectly for the home side here in my opinion. Buffalo is ranked 22nd in the league on offense on the road and 19th defensively, while Nashville is 28th in goals scored at home and 17th defensively. 

The pick: Note though that Buffalo is a poor 2-7 in its last nine on the road following a victory and as an underdog in the +150 to +180 range, while Nashville is 4-1 in its last five home games following a loss by two goals or more. Considering everything, I have no issues at all in laying this larger price.

9* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.

The set-up: The Knights made a coaching change and then won 4-2 in Ottawa. That game was a "push" as far as the total was concerned. The Habs come in off a 4-1 win over Philadelphia, that game also stayed "under" the number. The Habs are going to have their hands full with a Knights offense which averages 3.04 GPG on the road this season, but they'll have their opportunities as well vs. a defense which allows 3.02. Montreal averages 3.02 GPG at home and it allows 3.10. Add up these numbers any way you want, but it clearly points to this total as being too low today in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that LV has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after a two-game unbeaten streak and coming off a victory of two goals or more, while Montreal has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 11 home games following a victory of three goals or more. All things considered, I believe this number is low.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Knights/Habs.