Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. |
FREE PICKS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NFL | Sep 15, 2024 Bengals vs. Chiefs |
Bengals +5½ -110 at CIRCA |
in 2d |
The defending Super Bowl Champs started their season with a hard fought prime time win vs Baltimore and could easily follow that up with a letdown performance here vs a an opponent that choked against under rated New England in week 1 action and is badly looking for redemption. . Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow in his NFL career against sides like KC coming off a SU/ATS vcitroy , is 7-0 SU/ATS away. Im betting that the Bengals keep this game closer than the line might indicate. This game screams FG victory and it might not be the favorite taking the cheese. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
WNBA | Sep 12, 2024 Liberty vs Wings |
OVER 177½ -115 |
Lost $115.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Bet over the total in Dallas games as a home underdog -11-1 OVER L/12 with a 191.1 ppg scored. |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NFL | Sep 12, 2024 Bills vs Dolphins |
UNDER 49 -110 |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect. The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100% I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number. Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. Teams like Miami that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate in Week 2 since 2005 . Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games. Play under |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | Sep 12, 2024 Red Sox vs Yankees |
OVER 9 +104 |
Lost $100.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
NYY starter Cortes (4.08 ERA) has allowed four runs or more in five of his L/9 starts. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB since the beginning of July with a 3.95 ERA. Meanwhile,Criswell the BoSox starter has garnered a 4.11 ERA overall this season and he is backed by a struggling bullpen that has recorded a ugly 6.18 ERA since the start of July which ranks dead last in MLB. Considering the pitching data and the fact these two teams own strong offensive numbers since the all star break both producing the 2nd and 3rd most runs per game and ranking top two in slugging percentage its and easy decision here to back an over wager cashing. Play over |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NCAA-F | Sep 12, 2024 Arizona State vs Texas State |
Texas State +1½ -105 at Mirage |
Lost $105.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
After a surprising 2-0 start under second-year ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham the Sun Devils take on a Texas State side that is highly under rated and expected to win their conference . Last week against Mississippi State they took 30-23 victory but did not look good in the 2nd half getting outscored 20-3 and Im betting they continue to regress into this tilt. It must also be stated that ASU QB Sam Leavitt struggled in a big way against Mississippi State. He completed 10-of-20 pass attempts for just 65 yards and Im expecting the Sun Devils will have to lean on their run game again, whihc maybe not ideal on a short turnaround, as exhaustion may rear its ugly head. Home team like Texas State vs. the money line - excellent offense from last season - averaged 6.1 or more yards/play, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters- first month are 30-4 since 1992 for go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team like Texas State vs. the money line - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters- first month are 23-3 since 2015 for a 89% conversion rate. Texas State to cover |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |
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