Alex Smart Handicapper Review & Free College Basketball Picks

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After squandering a gigantic lead last time out vs Golden State in game 2 in this series, I can see the Blazers in a classic emotional letdown situation. When you exert that much energy and play much better than anyone anticipated and still lose, a follow up effort could easily be more muted than many expect here in game 3. I know alot of pundits point out that the Warriors are vulnerable without Durant in the lineup. However,  it must be noted that the Warriors, play well together without Durant on the court, as they are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when he is out of the lineup, covering by more than 14 points per game, with all of the tilts coming on the road. Overall Durant is has been out, of the Warriors line 14 times since he came to Oakland and 5 of those games saw Steph Murray play, and guess what the Dubs were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in those tilts.

Kerr is 11-2 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. 

NBA team (PORTLAND) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-100 L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Dakota Hudson the Cards starter has shown some promise but his hard-hit rate of 45.8 percent is a concern, especially against a Texas team seeing the ball very well at the moment. In . his current form the kid is fade material in this spot. 

The Rangers cruised to a 7-3 victory Friday night vs the Cards and dating back to Wednesday have outscored their opposition by a 26-5 count. Considering how much struggling the Cards have suffered through of late, as is evident by having been outscored 21-6 in their L/3 games.

Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.Cardinals are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings.TEXAS is 5-0 against the money line in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.

The Texas Rangers are 18-0 L/18 on the ML in the second game of a home series when they were a dog in the opener and they are facing a starter with a strike-per-ball ratio of 2.05 or less.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 3 games, in May games are 155-100 L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML

Jose Berrios RHP 6-2, 3.05 ERA, 54 SO.......Berrios the Twins starter struggled for the first time in 2019 on Monday against the Angels, when he was tagged for a career-high 12 hits and a season-high five runs in 5 2/3 frames. It marked the first time in 10 starts that he did not complete at least six innings and gets my support here to bounce back and get us to the promised land.

MINNESOTA is 10-0  against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.The Twins are 11-0 on the ML as a road favorite when playing a team that has a worse record. 

MINNESOTA is 8-0 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. 

The Twins are 19-0 on the ML as a road favorite after a five-plus win if that was not a complete game by their starter which was the case in last nights 7 -1 win vs Seattle.

SEATTLE is 0-12 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.

Play on Minnesota Twins to win on the ML

STEVEN MATZ (L) vs. PABLO LOPEZ (R)

Miami starter Lopez had a ugly outing last time out, but Im betting on a rebound here vs a very inconsistent NY Mets offence. Lopez hadn't allowed more than four runs or worked fewer than 4 2/3 innings this year before Friday's outing. Overall, he has performed at an optimal level, with a 3.82 xFIP. Meanwhile, NY Mets starter Matz has not pitched since May 4 due to radial nerve discomfort in his left forearm, an issue that has bothered him  throughout his career.  Wednesday and should be ready here, but rusty, and less than 100% making him vulnerable vs a up-trending Marlins team that beat the Mets last night. Note: MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MIAMI) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season against opponent starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 31-12 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mets are 1-5 in Matzs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the ML

Rockies RH Antonio Senzatela (3-2, 5.35 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Aaron Nola (3-0, 4.86)

This contest today features a rematch of Philadelphia’s 8-5 victory on April 20 in Denver. Citizens Park in Philadelphia is also a hitters park like Coors is , and today Im expecting some offensive fireworks in a notorious hitters park .Nola has not pitched as well overall as he did last season, but thanks to an explosive offence is receiving superior run support to remain in the  unbeaten column. Nola only has three quality starts in nine starts this season.NOLA is 8-1 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record)  with a combined average of 12.1 rpg going on the board. . Meanwhile, Rockies stater Senzatela has pitched well overall but of late has produced a 7.04 ERA in his last 3 starts, and according to my cross reference pitcher vs batting order power rankings the Phillies matchup well against him and and project do adequate damage to get us over the set total this afternoon. 

Over is 5-0 in Senzatelas last 5 starts overall.Over is 9-2 in Rockies last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 8-1 in Nolas last 9 starts overall.Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in Philadelphia. Colorado is average 5.2 rpg this season and Philadelphia is averaging 5.3 rpg at home.

COLORADO is 11-1 OVER in May games this season with an average of 14.7 rpg scored. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

The Bucks, in game 1 of this series showed their rust after a week off, while the Raps showed their fatigue in a  108-100 final on Wednesday. In Game 2 on Friday, the Bucks reved things up  and took a 125-103 victory to take a 2-0 series lead. Now Im betting on the Raptors and the Bucks coming out here with all guns blazing in a game that Im betting eclipses the total.

 The Bucks are 11-4 OVER L/15 on the road with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored in those 15 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Gregory Soto LHP0-2, 13.50 ERA, 4 SO...The Tigers starter goes to the hill for his third start, despite going on three days’ rest for the third consecutive turn and very much looks like canon fodder here in this spot. Motown has lost 15 straight  in this series, and Im betting they take on the chin here this afternoon again.

The Athletics has won 18 straight  as a road 130-plus favorite on the ML after a game as a road favorite of at least 108 in which they had more strikeouts than hits, winning by an average of 6.94 runs with the L/14 straight coming by 2 or more runs.

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (DETROIT) - bad offensive team ( 4.2  or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits are 10-32 L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the -1.5 RL

Western Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The St.Louis Blues despite of lacking experience have played some tremendous hockey since the midway point of the NHL season, and have been lights out in my humble opinion the best team in the league, and nothing has changed my opinion of that in this seasons play offs. Tonight in a  game 3 Im betting on their ability to be physical and tenacious will be the difference maker in a game vs a good San Jose team that lacks consistent defence or goaltending which is a real negative that they have been able to overcome so far in these play offs because of a potent offence and bad officiating calls. 

SAN JOSE is 11-20 ATS  off a close road loss by 1 goal over the last 3 seasons. (The Blues won game 4  by a 2-1 count)

Blues are 8-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog.Blues are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Blues are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.Blues are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.Blues are 23-6 in their last 29 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blues are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog.Blues are 20-6 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blues are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.Blues are 6-2 in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.Blues are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. Pacific.Blues are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blues are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Blues are 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blues are 17-8 in their last 25 overall.Blues are 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on St.Louis Blues to win on the ML

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

I have not been impressed by the way the Raptors have played in the play offs overall especially the Philadelphia series, and the 2nd game of this series when they lost by 22 points. However, there is enough talent and pride with guys like Kawhi Leonard, and hardcore work ethic from key character players like Siakam to produce a top tier effort in desperation mode here at home today. Note: The L/14 seasons home favorites like the Raptors that were defeated their previous game by double digits have gone 117-79-5 ATS in the playoffs.

MILWAUKEE is 7-21 ATS L/28  off 3 or more consecutive home wins .

Milwaukee is 0-23 ATS as a rested dog when they are off a win as a home favorite in which they shot better than 25% from the arc and are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 1.50.

NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 53-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (2-5, 5.68 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (2-2, 2.65)

Freeland won against the Phillies on April 18, when he struck out seven and allowed only two hits in six scoreless innings. In two games against the Phillies, Freeland is 1-0 with a 0.0 ERA. also did not allow a walk. The lefty is 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA in three day games this season and despite of some recent struggles is a quality hurler that matches up well vs thePhillies batting order according to my power rankings and  offers us a viable chance to cash a value line ticket.

EICKHOFF  the Philies stater is 1-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 7.43 and a WHIP of 1.826.

Phillies are 6-15 in Eickhoffs last 21 starts with 4 days of rest.Phillies are 2-6 in Eickhoffs last 8 starts vs. National League West.

FREELAND is 6-0 against the money line in road games against NL East opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Rockies are 8-0 in Freelands last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

 Colorado is 14-4  against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) FREELAND is 12-5 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Colorado to win on the ML