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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports - Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Louisville vs. Florida State |
Louisville +7 -120 at MIRAGE |
in 3h |
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Oh how the mighty have fallen, as Taggarts Florida States looks to be a undisciplined shambles. Taggart's team is one of the worst in all of college Football for incurring penalties and that indirectly becomes a situation that facilitates their down trending projections in my power rankings. I know that Louisville's QB Jawon Pass may not start because of a nagging foot injury, but Malik Cunningham his backup is more than capable of leading his team here as was the case in last weeks win vs Western Kentucky. FLORIDA ST is 3-12 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and s 4-15 ATS L/19 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points . CFB road team (LOUISVILLE) - a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against a horrible defensive team ( 34 or more PPG), after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. CFB home team (FLORIDA ST) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 57-112 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Louisville to cover |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 20, 2019 Mariners vs Orioles |
Mariners -110 at pinnacle |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Mariners are heading to Baltimore riding a five-game winning streak after a 6-5 win vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday afternoon and have momentum on their sides . With Felix Hernandez a long standing hurler with Seattle dating back 14 seasons probably making his last start with the Mariners before becoming a free agent in the off season Im expecting a motivated and big effort from him which has me backing this veteran hurler. He is coming off a strong seven-inning outing in which he allowed just one run on five hits vs. the White Sox. Baltimore has lost four straight, including a 8-4 loss to Toronto on Thursday night. The Orioles are now 49-104 for the season, and showing little fight as they go through the motions of getting to the end of this nightmare season. Seattle has also had a dismal season, but they thrive against sides like Baltimore going 14-2 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. Meanwhile,Baltimore has been the poster boys for futility when going against teams like Seattle.BALTIMORE is 6-31 against the money line vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game this season. Play on Seattle to win on the ML |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 20, 2019 Nationals vs Marlins |
OVER 8½ -119 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Friday's pitching matchup will feature a pair of right-handers: Nationals veteran Anibal Sanchez (9-8, 3.86 ERA) against Marlins rookie Robert Dugger (0-2, 3.95 ERA). Sanchez beat the Marlins the last time he faced them. Note: The Marlins have gone over 12 straight at home when seeking same-season revenge vs their opponents starting pitcher with each game seeing 9 or more runs scored. Over is 5-2 in Sanchezs last 7 starts on grass.Over is 9-1-1 in Marlins last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 12-4-1 in Marlins last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami. MIAMI is 21-11 OVER in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 10.8 rg scored.MIAMI is 17-8 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg going on the board.MIAMI is 13-3 OVER as a home underdog of +175 or more this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg going on the board. Play OVER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 20, 2019 Rangers vs A's |
UNDER 9 -116 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Tonight we have a couple of top teir pitchers that have had some struggles of late. But Im betting on them correcting their slumps here this evening in Oakland in a tilt I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. Note: The Coliseum has been a place Fiers the AS right-hander loves to pitch in , as is evident by his 8-1 record along with a stingy 2.76 ERA over 15 starts in Oakland this year would indicate. Minor the Rangers starter has struggled a bit vs the As recently but knowing his work ethic and ego you can bet he will be ready to fire back. MINOR is 11-3 UNDER in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. MINOR is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.8 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (OAKLAND) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 55-21 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (TEXAS) - with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 87-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 20, 2019 Florida International vs Louisiana Tech |
Florida International +8½ -110 at Mirage |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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FIU may not inspire bettors but they have a history of competing, and have cashed 8 of their L/9 against a 500 team like LA Tech. Skip Holtz has never been a coach to back laying points, and I really feel this is one of his lesser teams and lack value on a TD or more line as favs. Davis is 17-2 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992 which was the case in their last game vs New Hampshire. Holtz is 2-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 50-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with Florida International to cover |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 20, 2019 Utah vs USC |
USC +4 -110 at sportsbook |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Utah visits USC on Friday night. On the opening line a couple of land locked sports books opened this game as a pickem before the public and some sharps scrambled in with their money on Utah. But now at +4 we have value with the Trojans at home. Note:The home team has won 6 straight in the series and has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings. With that said, Im betting USC behind the big arm of Kedon Slovis’ and a strong running game and a defense that is top 20 in opponent red zone scoring and top 25 in sacks will get the job done and deliver to us some profits here this evening. It must be noted that USCs new air raid system is something that has given the Utes alot of problems of late, as they are 0-5 ATS L/5 vs a team using the air raid offence. Whittingham is 19-30 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH. CFB home team (USC) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the USC to cover |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Western Michigan vs Syracuse |
Western Michigan +6 -105 at sportsbook |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Syracuse after getting run over by Clemson last week in a much anticipated game will be ina letdown situation vs a under rated Western Michigan side with 14 starters returning and that put 352 yards against a stingy Michigan State defense in their opener and 7 TDs vs Georgia State last week .Considering Dino Barbers team have been run over to the tune 675 yards in the last two tilts things may not get much better today. CFB road team (W MICHIGAN) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 . Play on Western Michigan to cover |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes. My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%! I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections. |
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