Alex Smart Handicapper Review & Free College Basketball Picks

Duke is off an emotional game against Florida State last time out where they scored late to seal a win vs Florida State. That hard fought effort will have them in a letdown spot, vs a grinding Syracuse team that will try to make this a physical event .  Im obviously not calling for an upset here, but I am betting on the Orange getting us the cover. 

CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SYRACUSE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win against a conference rival are 52-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

The Blazers played last night in the Mile High City in a hard fought affair, and will now be on tired legs which will effect their ability to run and gun with the one of the quickest pace teams in the NBA the Sacramento Kings. This Im betting will directly effect the total combined score of this tilt here in California's State Capital tonight. Note: The Kings have gone UNDER 4 straight with a 1/0 rest situation. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-2 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored.  

PORTLAND is 43-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.

PORTLAND in their L/46 games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. PORTLAND in their L/31 games when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO in their L/80 ages when the total is 220 to 229.5 have seen a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January games are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The Flyers have lost 9 of their L/10 games, and are exhausted after continual hard fought affairs, during that 10 game span and  are due for a complete crash which could easily happen tonight. Note: The Flyers have scored a total of 14 goals in their L/9 games.

PHILADELPHIA is 5-20 ATS against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp this season.

Meanwhile, visiting Minnesota a team that is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss to a rebuilding Detroit team (5-2) that was also 1-9 SU in their L/10 overall  and will be out looking for redemption. The Wild didn't show up for that above motioned  game, and the media has dumped all over them back in the Land O Lakes for their ugly display, and the Wild  will now be more wide awake entering this tilt and ready to play top tier hockey. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and will work hard to save face. Note: Minnesota won both meetings last season vs the Flyers home and away via shutouts. MINNESOTA is 20-6 ATS after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons 

Play on Minnesota to win on the money line 

The Houston Rockets  looked tired last night in a loss to Orlando and now even more tired  host the struggling  Memphis Grizzlies on Monday at Toyota Center on the second night of a back-to-back. These kinds of scheduling situations can be advantageous in the right situations based on line value and that's what Im betting we have here this Monday night by backing the Grizzlies plus the points. 

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 40-25 ATS L/23 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Take the points with Memphis to cover 

The Spurs head home after a 122-112 loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday night in a rematch of the two teams' epic double-overtime game, won by San Antonio, 154-147, on Thursday. Im betting the Spurs are now on tired legs and in a natural deflated letdown situation which makes the susceptible to a down game. I know Charlottes struggling, but their also desperate and a league wide trend supports them here on this line as well. Note:NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. With that said, Im betting the Hornets get us a cover here on a value line as underdogs. 

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

Im not buying into the Jayhawks  preseason hype that had them ranked No. 1 in the AP poll .  I know Kansas has shown flashes of brilliance and are off a  road win at Baylor last time out, but overall they still have showed me their weaknesses when they smoked by Iowa State a couple games back by a 77-60 count.  I can't get that beatdown out of my head, and remember saying to my self wow has this program degenerated. Now enters a revenge minded Longhorns team fresh off a hard fought loss to 15-1 Texas Tech last time out, and brimming with confidence despite of losing .

The Horns  lost to KU twice  last season which is good news for their betting supporters as they are  9-3 ATS as dogs in double revenge mode  and 9-2 overall with revenge overall.  Add to that Texas has done well here on the road going 4-0 ATS run at Allen Fieldhouse  and we have what looks like is a value selection backing the young men from Austin to cover .   

KANSAS is 2-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS is 5-14 ATSin home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Texas to cover 

The Portland Blazers played a hard fought affair in the thin air of the Mile High City last night and lost to Denver. Now on tired legs they go go against the fastest pace team in the league the Sacramento Kings.  Thats not a good situation for them here and Im betting the Blazers are fade material in this spot as they are just 1-7 SU L/8 after playing in the Rocky Mountains against the Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Kings are 15-8 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU/ATS on a totals line of 229 or less.

PORTLAND is 38-61 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 12-43 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 

 Monmouth swept last year's season series vs Siena and match up well vs this  Siena group according to my current power rankings. MU has won four straight regular season games over Siena at the Times Union Center and  and despite of this being 3rd game in 5 nights, are viable cover dogs in this road spot vs their hosts. Monmouth has covered 2 of their L/3 and have been competitive . Meanwhile, Siena off a rare win last time out have recent history of following up their victories with ATS clunkers as is evident by the following trends: Siena 1-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons and is 2-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

SIENA is 1-8 ATS  versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.SIENA is 0-8 ATS  after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SIENA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 4-27 ATS L5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Monmouth to cover 

My own projections make Ohio a 5 point fav here, and thus we are getting value with this line.  The last two meetings here between these two programs has seen Ohio win by DDs. Im betting on a Kent State team that loss by a 91-65 score toEastern Michigan on the road last time out to be on the wrong end of the score again. 

OHIO U is 62-39 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick with the average point diff of 5.6 ppg. 

CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (KENT ST) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games are 3-58 SU  L5 seasons with an average point differential of 19.9 ppg. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

 The Nuggets have been playing at a high level lately, especially at home, where they are 18-3 SU and have won their last 12, while the visiting defending champs Golden State have been playing very inconsistent  basketball despite of being healthy and from a betting perspective are just 4-11 ATS L/15 overall and not as ferocious as they once were. The last time these teams played here the Nuggets triumphed and Im betting they get the  cover here in this spot. 

 DENVER is 22-10 ATSwhen playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons

The Nuggets are 13-0 ATS/SU  at home with rest off a win in which there were eight-plus lead changes and it is before the All-Star break.DENVER is 12-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.DENVER is 17-5 ATS in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons

GOLDEN STATE is 2-14 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons . GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Denver to cover 

The Stars have scored just six goals in their last four games and have scored two or fewer goals in 10 of their last 13 games. Here against the leagues most explosive team  the Tampa Bay Bolts Im betting their in trouble. What gives even more credence to his selection is the fact that Tampa Bay (35-9-2, 72 points) is coming off a 5-1 loss to the New York Islanders on Sunday, which snapped a three-game winning streak and will be hell bent on bounce back after a rare embarrassing effort. Note: I know the Bolts have played alot lately with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this is the leagues best conditioned team, and after taking a night off vs the Isles will be fresher then some might think.Lightning are 20-7 in their last 27 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation

Lightning are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference

The Hawks are starting to play much better basketball of late winning 7 of their L/14 SU and have  covered 10 of their L/18 overall  and despite of losing by DDs, to a top tier  Milwaukee side  in their last home game were competitive in that tilt for 3 quarters. Note: 

Hawks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a double-digit loss at home.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.ATLANTA in their L/24 games  after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average point diff of 2.2 ppg.

In 18 home games this season this young Hawks side, has also not been an easy out with the average point differential clicking in at 6 ppg. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is only 12 -10 on the road this season, with the average point differential with coming by an average  roughy 3 ppg.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are just 10-32 SU L/5 seasons  for a go against 76 % with the average point diff clicking in at 7.9 ppg.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Chicago under their new interim head coach Jim Boylen originally wanted to implement a defence first system, but that plan looks like it has gone out the window as the Bulls are taking part in run and gun games on a consistent basis of late, with their L/5 going over the total, with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, LAL since James went down with an injury has consistently struggled to score, and are averaging 99.2 ppg in tier L/5 to the hardwood. With the Lakers desperately trying to get their offence untracked, Im betting they will be more aggressive tonight vs a side that has allowed more than 123 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood.The combination of the Bulls lack of D, and the Lakers need to up the ante on offence Im expecting a fairly high scoring affair that goes over the set total. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a below average defensive team (102  or PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 30-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

 No.3 Tennessee won the last meeting between the two programs (84-66 in last year’s SEC Tournament),  and now Arkansas will have some payback in mind. It must be noted that Arkansas has won six of the last seven overall meeting in this series, including each of the last two meetings in Thompson-Boling Arena. From a historical perspective this line is bloated , Note: In the 36 encounters since 1991-92, the average margin of victory in the series is 8.6 points. In 25 of those 36 games, the game was decided by single digits, including 13 games where the margin was five points or less. History does have a way of repeating itself even though these tow teams talent levels and performance are on currently divergent paths.  This season Arkansas is 10-5 with two of the losses coming in overtime and three times Arkansas had the ball with a chance to tie or wins. Arkansas’ five losses have been by 2, 1, 4, 6 and 6 points (3.8 average).Needless to say they are competitive and being slightly underrated here vs a public team. Im betting on them making a game of this , and more importantly getting us the cover a line that should be closer -11.5 according to my data. 

CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ARKANSAS) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 52-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas to cover 

Both these teams are methodical defence first teams, but according to my projections the number has been chiseled down by almost 5 points by the lines-makers in accordance with public perceptions . Im not betting that we wont see a physical grinding game, Im just estimating the combined score will eclipse this offer. Line value  resides with an OVER wager. 

St.Louis and their opponents in their 15 games this season have seen a combined average of 130.1 ppg scored. Fordham has seen a combined average of 131.6 ppg scored in their games this season. 

FORDHAM in their L/11 games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 127 ppg scored.

FORDHAM is 13-2 OVER  after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (SAINT LOUIS) - good defensive team (40-42.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 140.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Kermit Davis took over a  Ole Miss hoops program in transition, but has surprised with his ability to get the most out of this group especially with what looks to be the best backcourt in the nation, with. Devontae Shuler, Terence Davis and Breein Tyree.  Tonight however, despite of being  undefeated  in SEC play and at home this season, his Rebs will have his hands full, with a LSU Tigers side  that has gotten progressively better after  a  eight-man rotation has been put in place. I have projected one possession game so we have value taking points here with the underdog. 

CBB road team vs. the money line (LSU) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (73% or better ), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (14.5 TO or less ) after 15+ games have won 18 of the L/29 such matchups SU, for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 3 points per game which gives us value on this line.

Play on LSU to cover