Alex Smart Handicapper Review & Free College Basketball Picks

The Wizards are 0-12-2 UNDER L/14 at home with less than two days rest coming off a home win in which they never trailed. WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 UNDER  in road games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 37-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Habs are on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 days. Thats not a good spot for them here in this road environment vs the Edmonton Oilers side that is 7-0 L/7 at home as a favorite. 

Canadiens are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.

Canadiens are 1-4 in their last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation.

Canadiens are 2-8 in their last 10 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation.

Play on Edmonton to win 

Dylan Bundy(RHP0-1, 3.32 ERA, 22 SO) has been off to a strong start and is coming off a solid outing against the Royals. He gave up two earned runs over seven innings with six strikeouts in a loss. In his current form he is a good bet here even at a higher price than I usually pay. 

TEXAS is 4-18 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 37-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 17-61 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Angels to win 

Joe Musgrove (RHP2-1, 0.47 ERA, 24 SO) It's Musgrove's first start in San Diego since he became a local hero by authoring the first no-no in franchise history. It's already been an eventful home-stand.  Musgrove was honored for his no-no on Friday, then he played left field in extra innings.Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP)0-0, 2.12 ERA, 19 SO  finds the right tempo in his delivery, he pitches like an ace. He fought that throughout his last start against the Cubs, but he still delivered six innings of one-run ball, with one walk and six strikeouts.MILWAUKEE is 13-2 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 11-1 UNDER   in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.

Play on the UNDER 

Joe Musgrove (RHP2-1, 0.47 ERA, 24 SO) It's Musgrove's first start in San Diego since he became a local hero by authoring the first no-no in franchise history. It's already been an eventful home-stand.  Musgrove was honored for his no-no on Friday, then he played left field in extra innings.Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP)0-0, 2.12 ERA, 19 SO  finds the right tempo in his delivery, he pitches like an ace. He fought that throughout his last start against the Cubs, but he still delivered six innings of one-run ball, with one walk and six strikeouts.MILWAUKEE is 13-2 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 11-1 UNDER   in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams overall numbers might point to a lower scoring type of affair, but from a matchup perspective my projections estimate this total to be closer to 216 giving us a full possesion plus of value for an over wager. 

Bickerstaff is 12-2 OVER  in road games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more in all games he has coached with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. 

Pistons and Cavaliers have gone over in their L/9 meetings with a combined average of  (227.8 ppg going on the board. )

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 114-70  OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

The Jazz are on tired legs and banged up entering this game playing their 3rd game in 4 days with some key injuries to Donavan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert who is he plays will be less than 100%. Meanwhile, the Lakers are also missing their two top players Davis and James, but have come together as a team, behind a top tier brand of defense and deserve respect getting points in this spot play. 

Lakers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Jazz are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 67-102 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Suns were completely asleep at the wheel in their last trip to the hardwood losing a 111-85 decision at home to the Spurs. Could they have been looking ahead to this top tier tilt? Whatever the situation was, Im expecting a rebound here, and special attention played to playing top tier defensive effort. PHOENIX is 17-3 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The Bucks HC Budenholzer is 111-78 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached with the combined average of 208.5 ppg scored. Its obvious both teams can light it up, but top tier D, will be on display tonight in this EAST vs WEST slugfest. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Grizzlies beat the Bucks 128-115 in their last contest on Saturday and Im betting they will be in a letdown spot here in the Mile High city tonight. I know the  Nuggets are playing  through the loss of Jamal Murray, who tore the ACL in his left knee last week and is out for the season.  However, Denver has not missed a beat and have won two straight without its point guard and will be highly motivated in this spot play. The Nuggets are 16-11 ATS in 2020-21 when they are at least a 5-point favorite.

Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Denver.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 11-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate. 

 NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 1-30 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.7 ppg. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Urías is in bad form after  allowing five runs (four earned) over six innings Thursday vs. Colorado. In his past two starts, Urías has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 11 2/3 innings. More of the same negative action here will help the combined score eclipse this total. 

URIAS is 12-2 OVER  as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

URIAS is 10-0 OVER   vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

URIAS is 11-0 OVER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Play over

#1 GOALTENDERS: COLUMBUS - JOONAS KORPISALO, FLORIDA - SPENCER KNIGHT

Both these teams are on tired legs after playing last night and in no way be ready to run and gun here this evening. 

COLUMBUS is 15-4 UNDER  in road games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on 17.5% worse  of chances this season. 

COLUMBUS is 7-0 UNDER  when playing on back-to-back days this season. COLUMBUS is 10-1 UNDER  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.

FLORIDA is 7-1 UNDER when playing on back-to-back days this season.

NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (COLUMBUS) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Pelicans consistently rise to the occasion when playing top tier sides and Im betting on them doing the same again in this tilt. When their 7th ranked ppg offence is hitting on all cylinders any team is susceptible to being beaten including the Brooklyn Nets. 

Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 28-1 L/24 seasons for a 97% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 24-5 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on the New Orleans to win 

RODRIGUEZ is 16-1  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)RODRIGUEZ is 14-0  against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 11-52 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win