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Alex Smart Sports- MLB Home Run Club (Totals Blast )

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Alex Smart Sports- CFL Thursday Nighter (Total) - Argos @ Stamps

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 17, 2019
Padres vs. Marlins
Padres
-148
  at  5DIMES
in 1h

Chris Paddack(5-4, 2.84 ERA, 87 SO)The rookie righty was dealt from Miami to San Diego in 2016. Three years later, he makes his first appearance at Marlins Park. Paddack says he has no hard feelings towards his former team, but he noted that Wednesday's start will bring some added motivation. Paddock owns a 1.62 ERA in his L/3 starts allowing just 3 runs in 16 plus innings of work .Meanwhile, Marlins starter Trevor Richards (3-10, 4.18 ERA, 88 SO)has given up 13 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts and is fade material in his current form. 

SAN DIEGO is 16-5  against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season. 

 MIAMI is 5-18 against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 this season.

Play on the SD Padres to win on the ML

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 16, 2019
Astros vs Angels
Angels
+104 at pinnacle
Won
$104
Play Type: Premium

LAA starterHeaney, who was the late Tyler Skaggs' best friend, is coming off an emotional outing in which he allowed two runs over five innings in Houston. His start began with a slow curveball to honor Skaggs and will prepared to honor his close friend again here vs Astros this evening. 

Angels are 9-4 in Heaneys last 13 home starts.

Note: Mike Trout is not 100% and suffering with a calf injury and may miss this game.

 MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - excellent power team (1.5 or more  HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 17-35 for a go against 67% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 16, 2019
Rays vs Yankees
Yankees
-150 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Yankees lost to the Rays yesterday but Im betting on a bounce back here behind veteran starting hurler CC Sabathia. When the Yanks have lost at home against Tampa, they are 11-1 L/12  in their follow up at  home  and when Sabathia has taken to the hill at Yankee Stadium off a team defeat the NYY have proven resilient going  14-3 on the ML. 

SABATHIA is 15-3  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)NY YANKEES are 15-3  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.NY YANKEES are 26-6  against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 16, 2019
Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Rangers
-157 at GTBets
Lost
$157.0
Play Type: Premium

Lynn has owned the Diamondbacks in his career. He is 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) vs. Arizona, including a victory in Phoenix this season. He gave up just one run in six innings on April 10 in a 5-2 victory and gets the nod again here this evening. Note: Rangers are also 5-0 in Lynns last 5 starts and he has garnered a minuscule 0.82 ERA in his L/3 starts overall. LYNN is 15-2 against the money line in home games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) LYNN is 9-1 against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record) LYNN is 17-3 against the money line in home games in July games in his career. (Team's Record) 

Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 0-9 in their last 9 Tuesday games.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 16, 2019
Pirates vs Cardinals
Pirates
+166 at betonline
Won
$166
Play Type: Premium

Under rated Dario Agrazal(2-0, 2.81 ERA, 7 SO)has earned an extended look in the Majors, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA over 16 innings in his first three starts for the Pirates and is a viable underdog in this spot play.

The Cardinals are 0-8 on the ML when Jack Flaherty starts and they won in his last start against their opponent. St Louis was the favorite in five of the eight games as they are here tonight.Cardinals are alsoe 0-4 in Flahertys last 4 starts and are fade material here tonight against the Pirates. FLAHERTY is 4-9  against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)ST LOUIS is 4-15  against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.

I know these teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum of late with the Pirates on a 4 game losing streak and the Cards on a 3 game wining run, but all good a bad things must come to end, and thats what Im betting on here. Note: HURDLE is 31-19  against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses as the manager of PITTSBURGH.

MLB Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 52-21 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the ML

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jul 17, 2019
Wings vs Mercury
Wings
+7½ -101 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

The Mercury on a two game losing streak  and losses in 4 of their L/5   proved to me they dont matchup all that well vs the Wings. In the  first meeting with the Wings this season on June 20. the Mercury two key offensive threats  Griner and Bonner were held to a combined 20 points as Phoenix shot 24.6 percent and was outrebounded 49-28. While I dont expect that lopsided of a occurrence here I do believe we have value taking points with the visitors. Note:Diana Taurasi is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Dallas Wings ( Back ).

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jul 17, 2019
Dream vs Sky
Dream
+7 -105 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Atlanta according to my power rankings is being under rated here thus giving us value taking points with the with the Dream vs Chicago. Atlanta won two of the three games between the teams last year, including an 89-74 romp at home in the most recent matchup.

WNBA Home favorites (CHICAGO) - after a game where they covered the spread, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-57 L/5 seasons for go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 17, 2019
Pirates vs Cardinals
UNDER 8½ +105 Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Pittsburgh's Chris Archer (3-6, 5.42 ERA) is scheduled to face St. Louis' Daniel Ponce de Leon (1-0, 1.99) in a battle of right-handers.

Archer the Pirates starter had his best stuff in his second-half debut on Friday vs. the Cubs. He leaned on his four-seamer and slider to strike out a season-high 10 batters and comes into this tilt with momentum.Archer is 0-0 with a 2.20 ERA in three career starts against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Cards starter Ponce de Leon gets another opportunity after allowing one run in 6 2/3 innings in an emergency start Friday against the D-backs. Note: Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 overall.Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 on grass.Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. National League Central.Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 11-3 in Cardinals last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 21-6-1 in Cardinals last 28 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Cardinals last 21 games following a loss.Under is 20-7 in Cardinals last 27 home games.Under is 10-4-1 in Cardinals last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 35-15-2 in Cardinals last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 55-25-3 in Cardinals last 83 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-0 in Ponce de Leons last 5 home starts.Under is 4-0 in Ponce de Leons last 4 starts vs. National League Central.Under is 7-1 in Ponce de Leons last 8 starts on grass.Under is 7-1 in Ponce de Leons last 8 starts overall.Under is 4-1 in Ponce de Leons last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

ST LOUIS is 16-7 UNDER  in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. ST LOUIS is 30-17 UNDER  at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. 

PITTSBURGH is 18-6 UNDER in road games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons  with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. 

Play under 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.