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Alex Smart |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NFL | Aug 13, 2026 Packers vs. Steelers |
Total 37½ -110 at ACE |
in 2d |
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The Packers roll into Pittsburgh Thursday night for the first full preseason game of the year, and the total is sitting right in that familiar 36.5 to 37.5 window. I’m on the under, and the deeper you dig into the league-wide and team numbers the more it feels like the right side of the math. League-wide, the 37 threshold has been a reliable separator for years. Closing totals of 37 or higher have gone under at a 56.4 percent clip since 2010, a sample that runs well over 900 games. Since 2014 the under on those 37-plus numbers is even cleaner at 60.7 percent, returning solid units at standard pricing. The reverse holds too. When the number opens at 37 or lower the over hits closer to 59 or 60 percent. This matchup is perched right on the line, but the historical lean still favors the lower side once you account for how little the real starters play these days. Last year only 9.8 percent of preseason pass attempts came from quarterbacks who ended up starting Week 1. That is a sharp drop from the 30-plus percent range we saw a decade ago, and it means more backup-driven football, more conservative play-calling, and fewer explosive finishes. The Steelers themselves have been a quiet under machine at home in the exhibition season. From 2002 through 2025 Pittsburgh as the home team went under in 67.4 percent of its preseason games, a 14-29-2 record that has produced double-digit units over the long haul. That is not a small-sample fluke. It lines up with the physical, run-heavy identity the organization has carried for years, even when the first-team defense sits most of the night. Green Bay has not been as extreme, but the Packers still play a brand of football that keeps games from turning into track meets, especially on the road in August. Add the outdoor night setting in western Pennsylvania and the picture gets clearer. Early-season humidity and potential weather keep the ball on the ground more than the public expects. Combined scores in Week 1 preseason games have historically averaged just under 39 points against posted numbers that often sit in the mid-to-high 30s. When you stack the league-wide 56-to-60 percent under rate on 37-plus totals with Pittsburgh’s strong home under history, the edge starts looking real. At -110 a 56 percent hit rate over a 100-game sample nets you positive return after the juice. A 60 percent clip turns it into a steady grind that keeps bankrolls healthy over time. There is the Rodgers-McCarthy reunion angle, and yes, the veteran may take 30 or 40 snaps against his old club. Even if he does, the majority of the game still belongs to the second and third units still working through timing and communication. Those groups rarely light up the scoreboard in Week 1. I like this under. It matches the long-term numbers, the team-specific home trend, and the reality of limited starter volume. Keep the stake sensible, enjoy the nostalgia, and let the points stay low. |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 10, 2026 Mets vs Braves |
Mets +135 at Ace |
Won $135 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Mets sit as underdogs in Atlanta tonight at a number that keeps catching my eye, and after grinding through the full rotational picture on this Monday slate, this is the spot I keep coming back to. Christian Scott takes the ball for New York against Bryce Elder, and the gap between those two arms feels narrower than the moneyline suggests. Scott owns a 3.15 ERA across 74.1 innings with 92 strikeouts, a 1.26 WHIP, and a K/9 hovering right around 11.14. He has held opponents to three runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, and his road ERA sits at a tidy 2.82. Just a couple of weeks ago he went six innings against these same Braves, allowing one earned run and punching out seven. That kind of recent history against a specific lineup is hard to ignore when the price still offers juice. Elder has been solid enough at 8-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 126.2 frames, but the home-road split tells a quieter story. His home ERA sits closer to 3.00 while the road number climbs toward 4.93, and the strikeout rate lags behind Scott’s by a noticeable margin. When you line up the raw peripherals, Scott’s higher K rate and lower recent run allowance create a small but real edge in the starting pitching equation. Plug the numbers into a simple expected runs formula using season averages adjusted for park factors, and the Mets starter projects to suppress Atlanta’s offense just enough to keep this competitive deep into the night. The season series already sits at 6-4 in favor of the Mets, which undercuts the narrative that Atlanta simply owns this matchup. Historical trends for road underdogs in the +120 to +140 range against division leaders have produced enough positive results over large samples that the market sometimes underprices the better individual pitcher. Scott’s ability to miss bats at a higher clip than Elder gives New York a tangible chance to steal a win even if the bullpens become factors later. The math on the implied probability at +130 works out to roughly 43.5 percent, and if Scott continues limiting damage the way he has for the better part of two months, that number feels light relative to the actual matchup. I care about these edges because they are the ones that quietly build a bankroll over a long season. The Mets are not world-beaters, and Atlanta remains a strong home club, but the pitching differential and recent head-to-head results create a classic value situation. Light humor aside, I would rather back the arm that is striking out more hitters and allowing fewer runs than the one carrying the better record and the home crowd. Tonight that arm belongs to Scott, and the Mets moneyline is the play I am locking in with confidence. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |
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