Brandon Lee’s College Basketball Best Bets & Daily Free Picks ATS

FREE PICK: Boston Red Sox -125
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 912

We cashed the Red Sox/Astros O 9 runs with ease in Game 3, as Boston went on to win that game 12-3. Even thought I don't like the OVER as much in Game 4,  I definitely wouldn't take the UNDER, especially with it being bumped up to 10. 

I do see quite a bit of value with Boston -125 on the money line. Not only do I love the Red Sox offense at home, but I think they got a pretty big edge on the mound with them sending out Nick Pivetta and the Astros going with Zack Greinke. 

Pivetta hasn't made a start in the playoffs, both of his appearances came in relief in their series with Tampa Bay. He wasn't great in the first outing, but pitched outstanding in Game 4 of the ALDS, giving up just 3 hits with 7 K's in 4 scoreless innings. 

I trust him a lot more than I do Greinke. He too hasn't made a start. His only action came in 1 inning of relief in a blowout loss to the White Sox. He was awful down the stretch of the regular-season. In his last 3 starts he gave up 19 runs on 19 hits in 13 innings. It would be one thing if he was facing a slumping offense, but Boston is scoring runs in bunches every single time they take the field. Give me the Red Sox -125! 

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**In Depth Analysis Included With Each Pick**

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50* (NBA) - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR (Nets +1) 

I love Brooklyn at basically a pick'em tonight, as they go on the road to take on the defending champs to open their season. This is more of a party for the Bucks, as tonight is all about the ring ceremony for them. For Brooklyn, it's the first step to redemption. If this team had been healthy last year, I'm confident they would have been the team getting their championship rings on opening night. 

Add in the fact they get to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs and went on to win it all, I see the Nets out to make a statement. 

Some might see the drama with Kyrie Irving not playing because he won't get vaccinated as a big blow to this team. There's no denying that Irving is a special talent on the court, but he's a headcase off of it. I don't think not having him around is as going to hurt them as much as most think. 

They got a more than capable point guard to replace Irving in James Harden, a guy I think was out of shape last year. I think we are going to see Harden back to his MVP form and he's playing alongside arguably the best player in the game in Kevin Durant. 

This is also a deeper team than the one that ended last season. They brought in Patty Mills to be their backup point guard, so the depth there is solid. They also signed veteran Paul Milsap and got LaMarcus Aldridge to come out of retirement, giving them a solid 1-2 punch down low. I also think their 1st round pick in Cam Thomas is a guy who could carve out a role. 

Milwaukee's got pretty much the same team, outside of the addition of SG Grayson Allen. They also aren't at full strength with starting SG Donte DiVincenzo and backup big man Bobby Portis both out. Give me the Nets +1!

40* (MLB) - Astros/Red Sox G5 Money Line MASSACRE (Astros +112) 

I see some decent value here with the Astros as a +112 road dog in Game 5 of the ALCS. Houston has all the momentum in the series after last night's 9-2 win over Boston. The Astros trailed 2-1 going into the 8th. They scored a run to tie it in the 8th then put up a 7 spot in the Top of the 9th. Instead of it being the Red Sox with a 3-1 advantage, its tied 2-2 with the Astros having a chance to now take a 3-2 lead back home for the final two in the series. 

I also think the starting pitching matchup is a bit of a toss up. Neither Houston's Framber Valdez or Boston's Chris Sale pitched well in Game 1. Both were only able to record 8 outs before getting the hook. 

One thing to note about Valdez is he's been a much better pitcher on the road than he has at home. He had a 3.45 ERA in 11 home starts and a 2.88 ERA in 11 road starts. He's also got a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts vs the Red Sox. All 3 this season and all 3 ended in a win for Houston. Give me the Astros +112! 

40* (CFB) - C Carolina/App State ATS NO-BRAINER (Appalachian State +5.5) 

Everyone is on the No. 14 ranked Chanticleers as less than a touchdown favorite on the road against Appalachian State. Not only because of how great Coastal Carolina has looked in route to a 6-0 start, but a lot of people tuned into the Mountaineers game last week against Lafayette, as it was a stand alone game on Tuesday. A game App State lost 41-13 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

At this point in the season the books aren't going to just hang a bad number in a game they know is going to get bet with it being the only football game on the board Wednesday. That only makes me like the Mountaineers that much more with this too good to be true line the public is pounding with CC. 

Yes, this is a good Chanticleers team, but you couldn't have started the season with an easier schedule than what they have. Their six wins are against The Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, ULM and Arkansas State. While most of those have been blowouts, they did just barely scrape by with a 28-25 win on the road against Buffalo. 

I think it might prove to be a challenge for Coastal Carolina to take this massive of a step up in competition, especially on the road against what's going to be a pissed off Mountaineers team. App State played one of their worst games of the season in the blowout loss to the Ragin' Cajuns. They turned it over a season-high 4 times (previous high was 2) and 3 of those 4 turnovers led to short field TDs for Lafayette. 

I expect a different looking Mountaineers team on their home field against a ranked team. App State has a pretty strong home field edge. They have only lost 5 times on their home field since 2015. Give me the Mountaineers +5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -2) 

I absolutely love the Hornets as a mere 2-point home favorite in Wednesday's season opener at home against the Pacers. I know a lot of people are questioning Charlotte having a 38.5 game win total after only winning 33 games a year ago (keep in mind they did play 10 fewer games).

I definitely don't think there will be many running to place a bet on the OVER 38.5. That tells me the books see a lot in this team and are more than happy to take your UNDER bet. I'll side with the wiseguys that this Charlotte team is going to be improved. 

The do got a pretty good starting 5 with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridgers and Mason Plumlee/P.J. Washington. Ball had a sensational rookie year, averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg and 5.9 rpg. He only played in 51 games and started just 31, which might be a big part of the books stake on this team. If he takes another step in year two, this team will be in the playoff mix. 

The Pacers are a team that I got my concerns with. Indiana was just as bad as Charlotte last year. They went 34-38. While there starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, they will be down two of them. LeVert and Warren are both ruled out for this game. They could also be without one of their top reserves in Jeremy Lamb. 

I just think Indiana is getting way too much respect given the injuries they are dealing with to start the season. Give me the Hornets -2! 

40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 219.5) 

I want to lay the points with Chicago in this one (might put a little on it), but feel the safer bet is on the OVER 219.5. This new look Bulls team is getting some hype coming into the season after adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to form a pretty good top 4 with returnees Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They also got a talented youngster in Pat Williams, who I like, and two more additions off the bench in Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones Jr. 

I think they could be even better than people are expecting. With what's going on with Ben Simmons in Philly, there's reason to think this team could be right there fighting for that right to be the 3rd best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bucks and Nets. 

Regardless if they live up to that or not, this is a team that I think will be one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. Few are better in the NBA at igniting the fast break than Ball and LaVine is one of the more electric open court players. I see this team playing a ton in transition and being one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. 

The big concern with Chicago is just how good can this team be defensively? I think it could have some problems, especially early in the year given the lack of chemistry they have playing together. 

Detroit doesn't even figure to be in the running for a playoff spot this year. The Pistons simply put lack talent. They are rebuilding under Cade Cunningham. He's not going to play. I just think people have a hard time seeing the Pistons doing enough offensively to want to take the OVER in this game. 

I just think the total is too low. I think Chicago will be pushing 120 points and don't think this defense on the road is going to hold Detroit under 100. Give me the OVER 219.5!