Brandon Lee’s College Basketball Best Bets & Daily Free Picks ATS

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Saturday's MLB Free Pick: San Francisco Giants -133

I'll take my chances with the Giants as a -133 home favorite against the Padres. This is a good buy low spot on San Francisco starter Carlos Rodon. In his last outing, Rodon was rocked for 8 runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings at St Louis. Bad starts happen. Rodon still has a strong 3.49 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 7 starts overall. He's also been outstanding at home with a 2.12 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 3 home starts. 

Joe Musgrove has been rock solid for the Padres, but he's had a tough time against the Giants in his career. Musgrove has made 7 starts against the Giants and has a poor 5.02 ERA and 1.274 WHIP. 

Rodon has gone 15-3 on the money line in his last 18 starts working on 5 or 6 days of rest (on 5 days rest). Give me the Giants -133! 

Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10)

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MLB Run Line MASSACRE (Brewers -1.5, +110)

I'll take my chances with the Brewers on the -1.5 run line as they play host to the Nationals on Saturday. Milwaukee is a massive favorite here for good reason. Brewers will have Brandon Woodruff on the mound, while Washington gives the ball to Pat Corbin. 

Woodruff comes into this game with a poor 5.35 ERA and 1.366 WHIP, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Woodruff hasn't been a completely different pitcher at home than on the road. He's 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP in 3 home starts. All 3 of those wins coming by 2 or more runs. 

Corbin has made 8 starts for the Nationals and they have lost all 8. It's not bad luck. Corbin has a 6.28 ERA and 1.681 WHIP. Of those 8 starts, 7 have come by 2 or more. Give me the Brewers -1.5, +110! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Situational Run Line MASSACRE (Brewers -1.5, -120)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Brewers on the -1.5 run line at home against the Nationals on Sunday. We cashed Milwaukee on the -1.5 run line Saturday, as they won 5-1. Brewers have now outscored the Nationals 12-1 in the first 2 games of this series. Washington has also now scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 9 games. 

Hard to see this being one of those games they put it together at the plate. Brewers will have Freddy Peralta on the mound, who has really pitched well of late. Peralta has a 2.04 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

As for Milwaukee's offense, we should expect more of the same from a team that has scored 5 or more in each of their last 3. Nats are starting Aaron Sanchez, who has a 7.94 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 5 starts overall and a 9.00 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in 3 road outings. Give me the Brewers -1.5, -120! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Cubs and Diamondbacks. These two have put up some big offensive numbers the last two days, but yesterday's 7-6 final was extremely misleading. The two teams had combined for just 4 runs going into the 7th inning. Arizona put up a 3 spot in the 8th and then the two scored a combined 5 runs in the 10th. 

Great bounce back spot here for Dbacks starter Merrill Kelly after he was torched for 8 runs in 2 innings of his last start against the Dodgers. That's going to happen against that LA offense to the best starters. Kelly was in the Cy Young talks before that outing. I really like him to pitch well here. 

Cubs will turn to Wade Miley. He's only made 2 starts, but has been rock solid. Last time out he allowed just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)