Art Aronson College Basketball Free Picks & Betting Advice

This is a 7* play on CALGARY

Vancouver has won three in a row, but that comes with a bit of a caveat considering two of the wins were against Chicago and Ottawa. It's a much stiffer test tonight against Calgary and while it comes at home, we don't see the Canucks as being up for the challenge. The division leading Flames have gotten a gift in the form of San Jose losing five straight, thus it's now a four point lead in the Pacific. Getting two more points tonight would be huge as there's only seven games left to play in the regular season. The Flames have also helped themselves by winning five of six and they've done plenty of scoring with 30 goals in that stretch. Vancouver scored seven times in its win over Ottawa on Wednesday night (Calgary's last opponent was also Ottawa and they scored five goals). But as we said at the open, this is a much tougher opponent. Calgary is tied for the second fewest number of goals allowed on the road this season. The Canucks' recent play just isn't indicative of the kind of season they're having while it's been "par for the course" with the Flames. Play on CALGARY

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This is an 8* play on OVER Phoenix-Sacramento

Despite these being two of the very worst defensive teams in all of basketball, the Kings and Suns have managed to produce a couple of Unders the two times they've met in 2019. A matchup early in the season did go Over, but a much lower number. But oddsmakers don't seem to be fooled by those head to head results, nor are we. Phoenix gives up 116.1 points per game, tied for the most in the Western Conference, while Sacramento isn't too far behind as they allow 114.8. The Suns only scored 98 points in their last game and held Detroit to 42.2% shooting (still lost by 20). That's not indicative of how most of their games go. After scoring 60 points in the first half, they were held to just 38 in the second. Sacramento's last game was also a much better than usual defensive effort as they held Dallas to 100 points on 39.1% shooting. We just can't see this game NOT turning into a "track meet" and that means Over is the call. Play OVER Sacramento-Phoenix

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on PURDUE

It was not pretty, but defending champion Villanova was able to hold on to defeat St. Mary's 61-57 in their 1st round game Thursday. A little later on in the day, Purdue had a much easier time against Old Dominion, winning that game by double digits. Both games fell right near the number, but for us, the Boilermakers were a winner. We'll go with the Boilers yet again tonight as they are the superior side and 'Nova is still getting too much respect based on the fact they are the defending National Champs. But this year's team isn't nearly as good despite rolling to another Big East title. Purdue tied Michigan State for the best regular season record in the Big 10, which is something that seems to go unnnoticed. They just held ODU to 26.9% shooting and 49 points. While it obviously won't be as easy against Villanova, the Boilermakers are the much better defensive team here. In terms of defensive efficiency, there are only three teams left in the field of 32 with a worse rating than the Wildcats. Purdue enjoying a double digit advantage for almost the entire game against ODU is even more impressive when you consider they played without their starting point guard (he's a "full go" for tonight) and leading scorer Carsen Edwards shot just 7 of 23. We like Purdue a lot here. Play on PURDUE

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This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

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This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU

The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU

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