Art Aronson College Basketball Free Picks & Betting Advice

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

The Nationals fell to an unthinkable 2-8 in Max Scherzer starts by losing last night 14-6. Don't put that all on Scherzer, however. It was 3-2 game when he left (Nats trailing) and then the bullpen imploded in spectacular fashion, giving up 11 runs over the last three innings, including five home runs. Washington is better than this and we like them to bounce back behind Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg hasn't gotten any run support in his last two starts, literally, as the Nationals didn't score a single run in either game. But Straburg is still pitching well. He's gone six or more innings in six straight starts and given up two runs or less in four of the last five. For the Cubs, Lester hasn't allowed any earned runs in his last three starts. But he still has a higher WHIP than Strasburg for the year, which is telling. There have been three unearned runs allowed in the last two starts as well as 17 hits. So it's not been the dominant stretch some will make it out to be. Lester has a 1-4 TSR his last five starts vs. the Nationals, who are 70-28 in Strasburg's last 98 starts. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* play OVER St. Louis-Texas

We're going Over the high total in this Interleague matchup. There has been a pitching change here with the Rangers now going with Jurado, who will be making his first start of the year, although it probably won't be for long. Jurado is being used as more of an "opener" and hasn't pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in any appearance this season. Though it did its job last night, it's not like the Rangers bullpen is very good. The offense scored all seven of its runs in the second inning and has now put 29 on the board the last three games. They've only given up five in the same stretch, but the three games before that saw them allow 37. We look for the St. Louis offense to break out of its mini-slump here as the Rangers are still giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is among the highest numbers in the sport. The Cardinals get to use a DH this weekend, so that helps. Problem is that Texas averages 6.6 runs/game at home, which is the highest average in either league. So Dakota Hudson is probably going to struggle here for St. Louis. He already has a 6.43 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three road starts and other than Coors Field, this will probably be the most hitter-friendly park he pitches in all season. Play OVER St. Louis-Texas

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Golden State-Portland

Portland did not shoot well in Game #1 (36.1 FG%). As a result, they lost 116-94. We called for them to shoot much better in Game #2 and they did. Ultimately though, it did not matter as they dropped a 'heartbreaker' 114-111. Unlike Gm 1, that was an Over and that's how we're playing the Game #3 total. Portland is obviously a more prolific offensive team at home where tha average 118.1 points/game. The Warriors, even without Kevin Durant, have little issue scoring. They've gone for an average of 115 points in the first two games while shooting better than 50% overall. Steph Curry, as you might expect a former MVP would, has picked up the scoring slack in Durant's absence. Without question, the Blazers will be desperate in Game 3. But that doesn't mean the Warriors won't do their fair share of scoring as well. The Over is 12-4 when Portland is off a loss. It is also 13-3 the last 16 times they have hosted the Warriors. Play OVER Golden State-Portland

AAA

This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Nationals

We were on the Nationals last night as the thinking was Jon Lester's recent numbers weren't all they were cracked up to be. Sure enough, they got to Lester five times by the fifth inning and that was enough. Cubs manager Joe Maddon protested the loss due to the delivery of Washington reliever Sean Dolittle, which he complained about twice. Perhaps it was just seeing the Nationals bullpen pitch well that had Maddon raising his eyebrows. This group has been a disaster with a 6.77 ERA so far. Tonight's starter Jeremy Hellickson isn't much better with a 6.28 ERA his last three starts and a 7.90 ERA at home for the year. The Cubs would then seem to have a rather substantial edge in this matchup with Kyle Hendricks pitching as he has allowed just one earned run his last three starts where he's pitched 25 innings. But Hendricks is also a lot worse on the road with a 5.91 ERA. The Over is 14-7-1 in Cubs road games so far. Play OVER Cubs-Nationals

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto

Game #1 was a bad shooting night all-around as both teams finished below 40% from the field. The Bucks came from behind to win that one, 108-100, but then it was a wire to wire victory in Game #2 with them clobbering the Raptors 125-103. That was the most points given up by Toronto in any game in the playoffs and just the third allowing more than 108 points. All three have been on the road (twice at Philadelphia), so at least expect a lot better defense from the Raptors tonight in Game #3. They are still holding teams under 100 PPG overall in the playoffs. They've allowed just one 100+ point game at home the entire playoffs and that was the first game. At the same time, they haven't had a game where they shot 50% themselves since Game 1 vs. Philly. Milwaukee is a great defensive team as it led the league in efficiency in the regular season. The last five games have seen them limit opponents to a 38.1 FG%. In 10 playoff games, the Bucks have allowed more than 103 points only twice! Play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona

These teams went Over on Saturday with the Giants winning 8-5. That was a bit of a rare occurrence as they previous five meetings (dating back to last August) had all gone Under. Three of those five games, including Friday's opener, were shutouts. San Francisco is not a team that's going to be able to consistently put runs on the board this year, so look for them to struggle at the plate today as they get set to face Robbie Ray, who has a 1.10 ERA his last three starts. Ray has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start all year, but even more key is that he's had the Giants number with a 3-0 record and 2.45 ERA in seven starts against them dating back to 2017. Right now, he looks like the pitcher who had a career year two seasons ago. SF's Pomeranz has had his struggles and will be coming off the DL here. But the Under is 5-2 his last seven starts. Play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona 

AAA

This is a 10* play on LA DODGERS

The Dodgers had their four-game win streak (three shutouts) snapped on Saturday, but should get right back into the win column Sunday here in Cincinnati. They had shut the Reds out on Friday, 6-0, but then got a taste of their own medicine yesterday in a 4-0 loss. Shutouts have been incredibly common in Dodgers games recently with 7 of their last 10 games ending up that way, either in their favor or not. Five of the seven games have been wins. Two of the shutouts have been authored by today's starting pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is on an incredible run and having an incredible season. Ryu is working on a 24 inning scoreless stretch and didn't allow a run in either of his last two starts. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last one. That came after a 93-pitch complete game. Ryu hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start all season. He has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.72) right now. We just don't see how Tanner Roark and the Reds can match up here. Cincy is 5-12 in day games this season and 0-7 on Sunday. The Dodgers are 9-3 in day games. Play LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER St. Louis-San Jose

Boston is already onto the Stanley Cup Final, but we're guaranteed at least six games in the Western Conference Final where things are now squared back at two games apiece. The Blues shook off a brutal Game 3 finish to win Game 4, 2-1, and our read here is that another low-scoring affair is in the cards. We're now heading back to San Jose where the Sharks seem to have an advantage. The Over cashed in the first two games of the series here and the first three games overall. But the Under is 25-11-2 in the Blues last 39 games after scoring two goals or less their previous time out. They have Jordan Binnington in net. This rookie was a difference maker again in Game 4 by stopping 29 of 30 shots. At the same time, St. Louis had only 22 shots on goal themselves. Shot totals have not been particularly high in this series. We don't think they will be for this crucial Game #5 where both goalies figure to be at their best. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose

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