Art Aronson College Basketball Free Picks & Betting Advice

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We are 2-0 in the ALCS. Both wins, which came in Games 1 and 3, were with the Over. It sure didn’t take long for the Over to hit last night. For the third time in two games, the Red Sox hit a grand slam. They were up 6-0 after two innings and 9-0 after three. It was when the Astros scored three runs in the top of the fourth that the Over officially became a winner. But we are “switching sides” tonight in Game 4 as it’s time this ALCS saw an Under. The Over is 3-0 in the series and 5-0 the last five times the teams have met. Not shocking as these were two of the highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They have both gone Over in six straight playoff games. But the O/U line is higher (up to 10.0) for Game 4 and Zack Greinke is the key for the Astros. Greinke has yet to start a playoff game in 2021. He had a mediocre regular season. But we think he’ll “step up” like he did when he threw a scoreless inning of relief against the White Sox in the ALDS. But the problem for Houston is that they had only five hits in last night’s loss. Assuming the Red Sox stop hitting grand slams, a wise assumption based on the fact they are already the first team EVER to hit three in the same series, their scoring is set to go down. Nick Pivetta will start for Boston. He threw four scoreless innings of relief in his last appearance and held the Astros to just two runs in six innings when he faced them in the regular season. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on MONTREAL

The Canadiens are desperate here as they’ve started the season 0-3. That’s the worst record in the league right now. Every loss has come in regulation and the Habs have only managed one goal in each game. With two days off to do some serious “soul-searching,” they should bounce back and finally get into the win column tonight, hosting the Sharks. Even though there’s no Carey Price in goal right now, let us not disregard that the Habs made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in June. It’s not so much Price not being between the pipes, but the lack of offense - and an 0 for 11 power play - that’s the biggest culprit in the team’s first 0-3 start in over a quarter century. The offense should fix itself tonight against a San Jose team that gave up three goals in its opener. The Sharks did win, 4-3 over the Jets, but a team with five rookies in the lineup and no Evander Kane isn’t going to be very good on a nightly basis. San Jose does have a five-game win streak at the Bell Centre, but has not played here since March of 2019. That was a much different (and better) team back then. Play on MONTREAL

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This is an 8* on VANCOUVER

Buffalo is 2-0 on the young season, but we’d hold off on printing playoff tickets. The Sabres were a last place team a season ago, finishing with only 37 points. At one point, they lost 18 consecutive games. Jack Eichel is injured and still likely to be traded. The team’s second leading scorer from last year, Sam Reinhart, is now skating down in Florida. The two teams that Buffalo has beaten thus far, Montreal and Arizona, are a combined 0-5-1. They needed a shootout to get by the ‘Yotes on Saturday. So Tuesday looks like a probable first loss as Vancouver comes to upstate New York. The Canucks are 1-1-1 thus far with every game coming on the road. After the first two games were decided in shootouts, they lost 3-1 in Detroit on Saturday. But that score was misleading. The Red Wings not only got an empty-net goal in the final minute, but were also outshot by the Canucks 41-21. It was a simple case of Vancouver running into a hot goaltender. We can’t see Sabres’ goaltender Craig Anderson, who is 40 years old, having many more games like the one he had vs. Montreal. Play on VANCOUVER

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Two former NBA Champs square off on opening night when the Lakers host the Warriors. Both teams had found themselves in the “play-in round” last season. For Golden State, that was an improvement upon the injury-riddled 2019-20 campaign. For the Lakers, that was a massive dropoff after winning the NBA Finals. The Lakers beat the Warriors in the play-in round, but didn’t make it much further as they were eliminated by the Suns in six games in Round 1 of the playoffs. The Warriors could not even make it that far as they lost the second play-in game (to Memphis) as well. For this first game of the new season, we like the Under. The Lakers added Russell Westbrook to the core that already included LeBron and Anthony Davis. But the rest of their roster isn’t good. It will take awhile for Westbrook to figure out how to play with the other two stars. Klay Thompson is still not back for the Warriors. Both teams were top five in the league in defensive efficiency a year ago. There will be some early season “rust” to shake off here and we don’t think the game will be that high-scoring. The Under is 6-2 the past eight meetings. Play on UNDER

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This is a 6* on LA DODGERS

Momentum has definitely shifted in the NLCS as the Dodgers were five outs away from being in an 0-3 hole to the Braves. Instead, thanks mainly to Cody Bellinger, they came back last night and won Game 3 by a score of 6-5. They’ve had a two-run lead in every game in this series and it’s difficult for us not to view them as the superior ballclub. Atlanta, who also took the first two games of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers, now has to be a bit “shell-shocked” and feeling an all-too familiar sense of “deja vu.” We love the Dodgers with Julio Urias starting in Game 4. Urias was baseball’s only 20-game winner in the regular season. He comes into tonight with a 21-3 overall record. The Dodgers are 27-6 in all of his starts this season and have won the last 12! While Urias, when used as a reliever in Game 2, could not protect a lead in Game 2, he’ll be a lot better tonight in his normal role of starter. Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game” tonight, meaning we don’t officially know who is going to start. Nor do we care. The Dodgers are the better team and seized momentum last night. The Braves are 0-6 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 2019, four of those losses coming this season. Play on LA DODGERS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

The Houston Rockets are not expected to be all that competitive for the 2021-22 season. Most prognostications have them and Oklahoma City as the likely two worst teams in the Western Conference. But should Minnesota, another team that’s not very good, be laying this many points in a season opener? Probably not. The Timberwolves have made the playoffs only once since 2003-04. While they did improve some after a coaching change, they still ranked near the bottom of the league defensively last year. They brought some new pieces to help them on the defensive end, but the problem is those players are liabilities at the offensive end. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns, there just aren’t many good two-way players on this roster. The T’wolves were only favored in 11 games last season and lost five of them. Their scoring differential when favored was only +1.5 per game. So they are not a team you’d want to lay points with. Houston is young and basically playing with “house money” coming into the new season. They had a winning (ATS) record as a road underdog last season and are capable of pulling the upset here. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on OVER

Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER

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