Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Angels/Astros: over 8½

This is the finale of a four-game series to open the season in Houston.
The pitching matchup for Sunday points directly to a high-scoring affair.
The Astros are handing the ball to Tatsuya Imai for his highly anticipated debut.
Imai brings a big arm from Japan, but early-season command is a major hurdle for international transfers.
Adjusting to the MLB strike zone and a different ball often leads to early-inning walks and elevated pitch counts.

The Angels counter with Jack Kochanowicz, who struggled mightily to keep runs off the board last season.
Kochanowicz finished 2025 with an ERA north of 6.50 and allowed way too much hard contact.
He doesn't have the "out" pitch required to navigate a Houston lineup featuring Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve.
The Astros also added Christian Walker's bat to the middle of the order, making this one of the deepest lineups in the league.

On the other side, the Angels' offense looks dangerous with a healthy Mike Trout and Jo Adell.
Adell is coming off a massive 37-home run campaign and thrives in hitter-friendly environments.
Daikin Park remains a launching pad for right-handed power hitters thanks to the short porch in left field.
With this being the fourth game in four days, both bullpens are already starting to show signs of wear.

Early-season games often see pitchers on strict pitch counts, forcing middle relievers into high-leverage spots sooner than usual.
Neither of these starters is expected to pitch deep into the game, leaving plenty of innings for the bats to feast on tired arms.
The total of 8.5 is too low for a matchup involving a rookie making his debut and a starter who gives up runs in bunches.
Expect plenty of traffic on the bases and multiple home runs in the Houston heat.

I like the Over 8.5 (-120)

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5* NO BRAINER on Connecticut +5½

Connecticut getting 5.5 points in this spot is a massive overadjustment. This is a game between two heavyweights that should be priced closer to a toss-up.

The Huskies have the clear edge when it comes to physicality and toughness in the paint. They currently rank in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and second-chance points.

Duke has struggled all season against teams that can bully them on the glass. If the Blue Devils can’t secure the defensive rebound, they can't get their transition game moving.

UConn plays a disciplined style that limits turnovers and forces teams into a half-court grind. They rank in the top ten in defensive eFG% because they contest every look without putting opponents on the foul line.

Duke relies heavily on high-variance three-point shooting to pull away from teams. The Huskies specialize in running shooters off the line and forcing tough, contested mid-range jumpers.

Both teams are playing on just one day of rest after their Friday night games. Connecticut has the deeper rotation and the conditioning to maintain their intensity for all 40 minutes.

The coaching matchup also favors the Huskies in a high-pressure tournament environment. Dan Hurley has proven he can make the right tactical adjustments on a quick turnaround.

UConn has been a covering machine in the postseason, going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 neutral-site games. They don't just win; they dominate the flow of the game.

Duke is the flashier team with the bigger names, but they often struggle when games become a physical battle. This is going to be a blue-collar fight that plays right into Connecticut's hands.

Expect a back-and-forth game that comes down to the final minute. Getting more than two possessions of cushion with a team as balanced as the Huskies is too good to pass up.

I like the Connecticut +5.5.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Hornets +102

Boston is limping into Charlotte with massive questions about who actually suits up for this Sunday matchup. Starters Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both listed as questionable with Achilles issues.

Derrick White and Neemias Queta are also game-time decisions, while Nikola Vucevic is already ruled out with a finger injury. This is a classic "schedule loss" spot for a Celtics team that has little to play for right now.

The Celtics are in the middle of a grueling stretch of three games in four nights. With a comfortable lead for the number two seed, they have every reason to take a conservative approach and rest their core.

Charlotte is on the opposite end of the motivation spectrum. They are sitting in the 9th spot and desperately need every win to secure their position in the playoff race.

The Hornets have evolved into the most dangerous shooting team in the league this season. They rank first in three-pointers made per game and third in distance accuracy at 38%.

When you combine that volume with their dominance on the glass, they become a nightmare for short-handed opponents. Charlotte is currently out-rebounding teams by nearly seven boards per game.

Moussa Diabate and Brandon Miller have been relentless on the interior lately. If Boston sits their primary rim protectors, the Hornets will control the paint and the second-chance points.

LaMelo Ball is fully healthy and cleared to run the offense without any minute restrictions. He holds a massive edge against a Boston backcourt that could be missing its top two defensive stoppers.

The Hornets have won four of their last five games and are playing their best basketball of the season at the Spectrum Center. Catch the home dog against a tired, depleted favorite.

Bet Hornets ML (+102).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Angels +170

The Astros are laying a massive price here that isn't supported by the current state of their bullpen. Houston used three high-leverage relievers in both the Friday and Saturday games to open this series.

Their closer and primary setup man have both thrown over 30 pitches in the last 48 hours. They are almost certainly unavailable for this Sunday afternoon finale.

The Angels bring a starter to the mound whose xFIP was a full run lower than his ERA last season. He specializes in inducing ground balls at a 52% clip.

This is the perfect profile to neutralize the power hitters in the Houston lineup. The Astros have struggled early this season against right-handed sinkers, which is this starter’s primary weapon.

Los Angeles has shown significantly better plate discipline through the first week of the season. They are currently ranking in the top five in walks drawn and are forcing opposing starters to work deep counts.

If the Angels can chase the Houston starter by the fifth inning, they get to face a depleted middle relief unit. There is a massive drop-off in talent once you get past Houston's top three arms.

The market is pricing this based on name recognition and home-field advantage rather than current availability. We are getting a huge plus-money price on a live dog in a classic "getaway day" spot.

The Angels have the fresher arms and the statistical edge in the pitching matchup. Expect the road dog to frustrate a tired Houston team and salvage the final game of the series.

Bet Angels ML (+170).

5* NO BRAINER on A's +158

The Athletics are in the ultimate buy-low spot this Sunday afternoon following two straight walk-off losses in Toronto.
Saturday’s 11-inning marathon was the tipping point for a Blue Jays bullpen that is now completely gassed.

Toronto used six different relievers yesterday and their primary high-leverage arms have worked back-to-back days.
In a series finale where depth matters most, the Blue Jays are forced to lean on the bottom of their depth chart to get through nine innings.

Oakland sends Luis Morales to the mound, a young arm whose FIP suggests he is much sharper than his early-season surface stats show.
Morales features a high-velocity fastball that has historically given this specific Toronto lineup fits.

The Blue Jays offense is currently bottom-ten in the league when facing right-handed power pitchers in day games.
Toronto is also missing key veteran arms on the injured list, leaving their long-relief options incredibly thin if the starter exits early.

The Athletics have actually out-hit Toronto for long stretches of this series but have been burned by late-inning bad luck.
They are due for some massive positive regression in a game where the pitching matchup is far closer than this +158 price tag suggests.

Eric Lauer is a vulnerable starter for Toronto who tends to struggle with his command when hitters remain patient.
Oakland’s lineup has shown improved discipline this week and is drawing walks at a much higher clip than they did last season.

If the A's can get to the Toronto middle relief by the fifth or sixth inning, there is nobody left in the Jays' pen to stop the bleeding.
This is a classic getaway day spot where the heavy favorite is physically exhausted from two straight extra-inning style battles.

The value on the road dog is too high to pass up given the state of the Toronto pitching staff.
Expect Oakland to finally break through and salvage the series finale against a tired opponent.

I like the A's ML (+158).

5* NO BRAINER on Knicks +8½

The Knicks are being vastly disrespected by this 8.5-point line.

New York is coming off an embarrassing loss to Charlotte on Thursday.

Tom Thibodeau rarely allows his team to put together back-to-back flat performances.

The Knicks have had two full days of rest to prepare for this matchup.

Oklahoma City is playing with just one day of rest after a Friday night win.

These teams met earlier this month in a game that came down to the final possession.

The Thunder won that contest by just three points.

Chet Holmgren is currently dealing with a hip injury and is not at 100 percent.

Even if he suits up, he will struggle with the physicality of Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson in the paint.

New York ranks fifth in the league in rebounding and should dominate the glass tonight.

The Thunder rank 29th in offensive rebounding and rely heavily on transition scoring to cover big numbers.

If the Knicks slow the tempo and limit second-chance looks, they will keep this game within reach.

Oklahoma City has been great straight up, but they are just 24-27 against the spread this season when favored by 8.5 or more.

The betting public is inflating this line because of the Thunder's record.

Jalen Brunson is a top-ten scorer who can match Shai Gilgeous-Alexander point for point.

The Knicks have the third-best offensive rating in the league and enough defensive grit to muck this up.

Take the points with a hungry New York squad looking for a statement win.

I like the Knicks +8.5 (-105)