Alex Smart Handicapper Review & Free College Basketball Picks

As the college football bowl season rolls on, all eyes turn to the tropical paradise of Honolulu for the 2025 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, where the California Golden Bears (7-5) clash with the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-4) on Christmas Eve at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, the latest odds list Hawaii as a slim 1.5-point favorite, but the real value lies in the total, pegged at 50 points across major sportsbooks. This matchup pits two pass-heavy offenses against defenses that have shown vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a potential shootout under the island lights. While the spread has flipped from an opening Cal -3.5 to favor the home team due to sharp money on Hawaii's territorial edge, savvy bettors should however, zero in on the over as the premier wagering opportunity, backed by explosive trends, statistical mismatches, and unique game angles.

Both squads enter this bowl with offenses built around freshman quarterbacks who have lit up scoreboards late in the season, providing ample ammunition for an over bet. California's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, a Hawaii native making a homecoming appearance, has been on a tear, amassing 3,117 passing yards with 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions overall, but his last three outings tell the story of a rising star: 922 yards, zero picks, and a standout 330-yard, four-touchdown masterpiece against ranked SMU in the finale. The Golden Bears rank 24th nationally in passing yards per game at 270.8, leaning heavily on aerial attacks given their dismal 136th ranking in rushing (just 76.5 yards per contest). On the flip side, Hawaii's Micah Alejado has thrown for 2,832 yards and 21 scores in 10 games, powering an offense that sits 11th in the FBS with nearly 290 passing yards per tilt and averages 28.5 points overall. The Rainbow Warriors have cranked up the volume recently, dropping 31 or more points in six of their last eight games, including blowouts over Stanford and San Diego State at home. With both teams ranking outside the top 100 in rushing yards, Hawaii at 128th, these one-dimensional, air-raid styles could lead to quick-strike drives that inflate the scoreboard, especially in a bowl environment where defenses often loosen up.

Defensively, the numbers scream vulnerability, further tilting the scales toward the over. Cal's unit ranks a middling 43rd in dropback success rate and 58th in total defense, allowing explosive plays through the air that Alejado is primed to exploit. Hawaii, while solid at 51st in total defense and 40th against the run, has struggled against competent passing attacks, getting torched 38-10 by UNLV in their lone matchup against a top-tier aerial foe. The Rainbow Warriors' 58th-ranked scoring defense (23.5 points allowed) looks respectable on paper, but Cal's recent surge, averaging over 30 points in wins against Louisville and SMU, suggests Sagapolutele's hot hand could carve them up. My own projections reinforce this: which s, leans heavily toward the over hitting in the low to mids 50s forecasting a back-and-forth affair where offensive efficiency trumps conservative play-calling. Neither team boasts a shutdown secondary, Cal sits 33rd against the pass, but Hawaii's 12th-ranked passing offense could overwhelm them in the tropical humidity.

Betting trends provide even more fuel for the over fire, particularly when dissecting recent form and historical bowl data. Hawaii has seen the over cash in four of its 12 games this season, but that jumps in their high-output stretch, where six of the last eight exceeded expectations with 31+ points scored. Cal's contests have averaged totals 4.4 points below this line, yet their last three games all featured combined scores pushing toward the high end, with the SMU thriller ending 38-35. Historically, the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl has been a points paradise: In 21 editions, the winning team has scored 30 or more in 18 games, and one side has reached 41+ in 12 outings, underscoring the event's reputation for offensive fireworks amid the festive atmosphere. Over the last four years, the over has hit in three of them, including a 72-point explosion in 2019's 38-34 thriller. Broader bowl trends favor overs in non-CFP matchups like this, where motivation dips for spreads but offenses shine in neutral-site spectacles. Home teams in bowls have a 23-16 ATS mark over the last 24 seasons, but for totals, the island vibe often leads to relaxed defenses and extended drives.

Unique angles amplify the over's appeal, starting with the short layof,both teams last played in late November, minimizing rust and allowing offensive rhythms to carry over. Sagapolutele's Hawaiian roots add a motivational boost, potentially elevating Cal's attack in a "homecoming" narrative that could inspire big plays. Opt-outs are minimal, with no major absences reported for Cal's key defenders, but whispers of fatigue in the Golden Bears' secondary could open doors for Hawaii's pass game. Hawaii's 6-1 straight-up and ATS record at home this year, including upsets over Power Five foes, suggests they'll push the pace early, but Cal's turnover-forcing prowess (top-10 in interceptions and fumbles) might create short fields for quick scores. Factor in the bowl's history of lopsided margin,eight of nine from 2008-2016 decided by 15+ points, but recent editions have trended toward competitive, high-scoring affairs that reward over bettors.

In a game where spreads are razor-thin and with offensive stats pointing to aerial dominance, defensive stats exposing cracks, trends favoring points in paradise, and angles like motivation and minimal disruptions aligning perfectly, the over 50 point offering on the total stands out as the best bet for this holiday showdown. Expect a festive 38-31 type final, cashing the over and delivering value in what could be one of the bowl season's most entertaining tilts.

As the NBA's marquee Christmas Day slate tips off at Madison Square Garden on December 25, 2025, all eyes are on the New York Knicks hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers in what promises to be a high-stakes Eastern Conference clash. With the Knicks riding high after their NBA Cup victory and boasting a 20-9 record, they're listed as 5.5-point favorites against a Cavaliers squad that's 17-14 but reeling from injuries and inconsistent play. This matchup isn't just about holiday hoops,it's a betting opportunity loaded with favorable trends, exploitable angles, and compelling stats that tilt the scales toward the home team covering the spread.

Digging into the trends, the Knicks have been a bettor's dream at home this season, going 13-3 against the spread (ATS) in their Madison Square Garden contests. That dominance extends to recent form, where they've covered in 10 of their last 14 games overall, showcasing a balanced attack that's overwhelmed opponents with efficient scoring and stout defense. Jalen Brunson has been the catalyst, averaging 32.3 points per game on scorching shooting splits over his recent outings, exploiting perimeter defenses like Cleveland's, which ranks a middling 20th in the league against guards. The Knicks' post-NBA Cup surge has them playing with championship-level intensity, and Christmas Day games often amplify home-court advantages, where New York has historically thrived in front of a raucous crowd. On the flip side, the Cavaliers have stumbled badly ATS, failing to cover in five straight games and posting a dismal 2-8 mark in their last 10. Without key big man Evan Mobley sidelined by a calf injury, Cleveland's interior defense is vulnerable, allowing opponents to shoot 52% from the field in recent losses and surrendering an average of 118 points per game over that stretch.

From a statistical angle, this game sets up perfectly for the Knicks to pull away. New York ranks in the top five league-wide in offensive rating at home (118.2 points per 100 possessions), while Cleveland's road defense has been leaky, giving up 115.6 points per game away from home,a mismatch that could see the Knicks eclipse their implied team total of 122.5 points. Donovan Mitchell remains a threat for the Cavs, but he's averaged just 24.8 points in road games against top-10 defenses like New York's, and without Mobley's rim protection, Cleveland's rebounding edge evaporates; they've been outrebounded by an average of 4.2 boards in their last five road tilts. Historical head-to-head data adds another layer: the Knicks have won four of the last six meetings at MSG by an average margin of 8.3 points, often capitalizing on Cleveland's turnover issues (the Cavs rank 22nd in turnover percentage on the road).  

  One angle to watch is the early tip-off (12:00 p.m. ET), which could favor the Knicks' veteran poise over Cleveland's youth-heavy rotation, especially with the Cavs playing on short rest after a grueling schedule.  

All told, the Knicks -5 (-110) emerges as the premier play for Christmas Day bettors. This isn't just about star power, it's a confluence of home dominance, injury exploitation, and statistical edges that make New York the smart side to back.

As the NFL's Christmas Day triple-header wraps up with an AFC West showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) host the Denver Broncos (12-3) in a matchup that's drawn sharp attention from bettors. With Denver installed as a massive 13-point favorite across sportsbooks, the line reflects Kansas City's dismal season marred by injuries and offensive inconsistencies, but it also screams value for contrarian plays on the home underdog. This spread has inflated from an opener around -5.5 to its current level due to public perception of the Chiefs' woes, yet historical trends, coaching angles, and advanced metrics suggest backing Kansas City to cover offers strong upside in what could devolve into a gritty, lower-scoring affair.

Digging into the trends, large underdogs like the Chiefs have performed admirably against the spread this season, with teams catching 13 or more points posting a 7-4 ATS record league-wid,a testament to the NFL's parity and the tendency for blowout lines to overcorrect for perceived mismatches. Historically, since 2006, underdogs in this spot have covered at a 52% clip overall, but the 2025 campaign has seen even stronger results, particularly for home teams where motivation and familiarity play a role. Kansas City fits this profile perfectly, as they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six home games as underdogs, while Denver has struggled mightily as a road favorite, covering just 2-8 ATS in such scenarios this year. The Broncos' 11-1 straight-up record in their last 12 games is impressive, but their ATS mark as favorites (2-8 overall) exposes vulnerabilities, especially against divisional foes where games often tighten up regardless of form.

From a coaching and personnel angle, Andy Reid's track record with backup quarterbacks stands out as a key factor in this spot. Reid boasts a 13-7 record when starting non-primary signal-callers, a success rate that highlights his system’s adaptability and emphasis on a balanced attack. With injuries piling up, quarterback Gardner Minshew recently placed on IR, wide receiver Rashee Rice in concussion protocol, and defensive backs like Trent McDuffie (knee) and Jaylen Watson (groin) limited or out, the Chiefs may turn to unproven options like Chris Oladokun. Yet Reid's schemes have historically elevated backups, averaging 24.5 points per game in those contests while keeping defenses off-balance with creative play-calling. Denver's defense, while stout (allowing just 17.8 PPG, third in the league), has shown cracks on the road, surrendering 4.9 yards per rush in away games, which aligns with Kansas City's intent to lean on a run-heavy script to control the clock and limit possessions.

My projections have factored in Denver's efficiency (Bo Nix leading a top-10 offense with 25 TD passes) against the Chiefs' home-field edge, where they've held opponents to under 20 points in four of their last five at Arrowhead. The total sits at a low 36.5, implying a conservative game flow that favors the underdog, expect short fields, field goals, and clock management to keep the margin slim, much like how other massive underdogs have clawed back this season. Weather won't be a freezing factor either, with forecasts calling for unseasonably mild conditions around 50-64°F, reducing any cold-weather grind but still allowing Reid's ground game to shine.

Ultimately, this pick thrives on market overreaction to Kansas City's 6-9 record and injury report, creating inflated value on the +13. While Denver's 12-3 mark and playoff push make them the deserved favorite, the angle, Reid's backup prowess, big-underdog trends, and my projections, point to a closer contest than the line suggests. Avoid laying the points with the Broncos unless you're fully fading the Chiefs; instead, grab the home dog for a festive contrarian sweat.

As the NFL's Christmas Day slate kicks off with a NFC East rivalry matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and the Washington Commanders (4-11) at FedExField, the spotlight falls on a totals line that's climbed to 50.5 across major sportsbooks . This divisional clash projects as a high potential shootout, pitting Dallas' explosive passing attack against Washington's porous defense, while both teams' defensive struggles could keep the scoreboard ticking. With the Cowboys favored by 7 points and a moneyline of -300, the real value lies in backing the over,here's why, backed by key stats, trends, and betting angles.

Dallas enters Week 17 boasting one of the league's most potent offenses, averaging 28.3 points per game (5th in the NFL) through 15 contests. Led by Dak Prescott, who's pacing the NFL in passing yards with 4,175 on a 68.5% completion rate and 28 touchdowns, the Cowboys rank first in passing yards per game at 274.3. Their total offensive output sits at 5,701 yards (5.9 yards per play), making them a nightmare for any secondary. This is especially exploitable against Washington, whose defense ranks 30th in yards allowed per game (383.0) and 24th in points surrendered (25.5 PPG). The Commanders have been gashed through the air, conceding 246.9 passing yards per game, setting up Prescott for another big outing—potentially eclipsing 300 yards as he did in their Week 7 matchup where Dallas hung 34 points on Washington.

On the flip side, the Commanders' offense, while middling at 20.6 PPG (24th), has shown flashes at home and could capitalize on Dallas' defensive woes. The Cowboys rank dead last in several key metrics, allowing a whopping 454 points this season (30.3 PPG) and 4,093 passing yards overall. Washington's ground game, averaging 4.8 yards per rush on 2,120 total rushing yards, could open up play-action opportunities, especially if rookie QB Jayden Daniels exploits Dallas' 48.23% success rate against the pass. In their earlier meeting, the teams combined for 56 points, hinting at the potential for another high-output affair.

The 2025 NFL season has leaned toward overs in several relevant scenarios. League-wide, 60% of games for teams like the Cowboys and Commanders have hit the over, aligning with broader trends where high-powered offenses push totals north. Specifically in divisional games, NFC East matchups have seen the over cash in 55-60% of instances this year, fueled by familiarity breeding offensive explosions rather than stalemates. Dallas has gone over in 8 of their last 12 road games, while Washington's home unders have flipped recently, with the over hitting in 3 of their past 4 contests against pass-heavy opponents.

Primetime and holiday games add another layer: Christmas Day NFL totals have exceeded expectations in 7 of the last 10 instances since the league expanded its slate, often due to aggressive play-calling in spotlight matchups. The line movement from an opener of 49.5 to 50.5 reflects sharp money flowing toward the over, and coincide with my own projections which estimate a combined 54-58 points in my own projected simulations.

FedExField's forecast calls for mild conditions (mid-40s, low wind), minimizing any under-friendly weather impacts and favoring passing games. Injury-wise, Dallas' secondary remains banged up, with key absences contributing to their bottom-tier EPA per play allowed (0.08), while Washington's offensive line is healthy enough to protect Daniels against a Cowboys pass rush that's sacked QBs just 33 times all season.

Motivationally, Dallas is playing for pride and potential spoiler status in a lost season, often leading to wide-open scripts, while Washington aims to build momentum for 2026 under Dan Quinn. This rivalry has averaged 52.5 points over the last four meetings, and with both coaches favoring up-tempo offenses, expect a pace that inflates the total.

This totals bet stands out as the sharpest play on the Christmas Day card. With Dallas' top-ranked passing attack dissecting Washington's leaky secondary and the Cowboys' own defense inviting counters from the Commanders, the ingredients for a 31-24 or 34-27 final are all there.