Alex Smart Handicapper Review & Free College Basketball Picks

  That recent matchup has inflated totals attached to it because both teams play fast and rely heavily on transition opportunities.

The Bucks rank near the top in offensive efficiency, which often skews recent totals upward for their opponents. However, despite their reputation last season as a fast-paced, high-scoring team, they’ve actually been trending Under this year due to:

Slower tempo in half-court sets.

Improved defensive effort, particularly against opponents without elite spacing.

Market inflation, as oddsmakers continue to hang high numbers based on last year’s offensive profile.

If the total in their next game is priced off that Bucks matchup, it may be a bit inflated, creating potential value on the Under or first-half Unders.

NBA teams like the Bucks where the total is greater than or equal to 230 - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a combined score of 265 points or more are 34-10 UNDER since 2022 with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored.

Play under

The Nuggets have one of the strongest home-court advantages in the NBA due to both altitude and crowd energy. Historically, they tend to perform better (and cover spreads more often) at home, especially against teams on the tail end of road trips.

  If Denver has already shown consistency in covering large spreads (say, -10 or more) this season, that indicates they’re not just winning but winning comfortably...but  a good sign for bettors looking at ATS (Against the Spread) performance.Finishing a road trip like the Kings are doing  often correlates with lower energy and focus, particularly on defense. Sacramento’s defensive metrics have slipped recently (like points allowed per 100 possessions, defensive rebound rate, or opponent FG%), that’s another signal Denver could exploit.

The combination of Denver’s altitude, home dominance, and Sacramento’s road weariness points toward a potential Denver cover, especially if the line is in the 10–12 point range. 

The Nuggets have one of the strongest home-court advantages in the NBA due to both altitude and crowd energy. Historically, they tend to perform better (and cover spreads more often) at home, especially against teams on the tail end of road trips.

Denver is 10–2 SU and 9–3 ATS at Ball Arena this season (as of early Nov 2025).They’ve covered 4 of 5 home games as -9.5 or heavier favorites, with an average margin of +16.8.Opponents on the 2nd night of a B2B or 4th game in 6 nights (like SAC tonight) are 1–7 ATS vs DEN since 2023.2. Kings are on Game 6 of a 7-game trip (4–1 SU so far, but 0–3 ATS in the last 3).Defensive rating bottom-10 over last 5 games (118.4 pts/100 poss).Opponent 3P% allowed: 41.2% on the trip.... Denver shoots 39.8% from three at home.3.

Jokić vs Sabonis: Jokić has +14.2 net rating in 48 mins vs SAC this season.Denver’s pace at home (102.1)  swill force SAC into transition, where their defensive rebound % drops to 68.4% on the road (4th-worst).

Brooklyn is a home underdog that might show more fight after their coach's public criticism; Minnesota is dealing with injuries (like Anthony Edwards being out).Betting-wise, this  sets up a potential “buy low” spot on the home underdog, especially if public money leans toward the better record/team despite their injuries. NBAvHome underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, first half of the season are 50-19 ATS since 2017.

Play on the Nets

 Boston is a dominate home side - flashing a  4–0  record at TD Garden this season, winning by an average of 18.5 PPG.After getting blown out last time out  the  Celtics are flashing a   5–1 ATS after a 20+ point loss under Mazzulla, including a 23-point bounce-back win last year after a similar embarrassment.: Utah is on tired legs and now  0–3 on the road, 0–4 on zero rest, while allowing 124.3 PPG in back-to-backs. They’re also without Lauri Markkanen (back)

.Play on the Celtics to cover

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Tennessee is expected to overwhelm Mercer with its athleticism, length, and Rick Barnes' strong defense.

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Saint Louis, a potential A-10 contender, is expected to play fast and pull away early in this home matchup.

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Wisconsin is anticipated to have one of its best offensive teams in years and should control the game easily at home.

Play on Wisconsin to cover

"Live dog" angle. Arizona coming off the bye gives Brissett extra prep time to prepare to exploit Dallas' leaky secondary—Cowboys rank 28th in pass DVOA and just lost key contributor Diggs for the season.Dallas' defense ranks near the bottom in yards allowed, passing defense, and is dead last in third-down defense, which plays into Arizona's strength (5th in third-down offense. Arizona has historically dominated this matchup, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings and 3 straight in Dallas.The public is heavily backing the Cowboys, but Arizona has been strong historically in this matchup and against the spread after a rest/bye week. Note: If Murray does not start for Arizona (he is not expected to) , it must be noted tha the Cardinals are not significantly downgraded with Brissett, who has thrown for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns in each of his two starts against strong opponents.

Play on Arizona to cover

H2H: Bulls have won 3 of the last 5 meetings vs. Philly and the Bulls’ Offense behind  Zach LaVine + DeMar DeRozan combining for 50+ PPG recently, indicating strong scoring potential.

The Sixers’ Depth is an issue: Limited due to injuries, which could be a liability against a home Bulls team.. Key Takeaways tell me a story of a Value Bet: Bulls -120 (or straight moneyline) looks strong based on model edge and trends.

Contextual Advantage: Home court, Philadelphia fatigue, and Bulls’ offensive hot streak.

 Both teams are confirmed to be 5-1 overall and playing very well. Tonight is the first game of a back-to-back for the Sixers (followed by a game tomorrow vs. Cleveland). The fatigue/load management risk is still highly relevant.

Bulls are confirmed to be leading the league in several hustle stats and are 5-1 against the spread this year, indicating their aggressive style is successful.

Paul George is OUT for the Sixers (knee injury recovery), confirming a major depth issue. Tyrese Maxey will carry a heavy load and easily focused on by an aggressive Bulls team. 

Play on the Bulls to win /cover

UNC Greensboro is 5-1 straight-up in its last six road games overall but has had issues with top tier teams, but ATS cover is strong possibility at this now inflated number . Kansas State, is coming off a 16-17 SU season, and  enters with offensive upside (led by transfer PJ Haggerty) but defensive questions under coach Jerome Tang leave this side option a back door cover opportunity for UNC Greensboro. 

Play on NC Greensboro to cover

Akron (45.2 PPG allowed in MAC play, 130th in EPA/play)

UMass (43.2 PPG allowed in conference, 129th in EPA/play)
Both are among the worst defenses in FBS.

 Taisun Phommachanh (UMass) and Jeff Undercuffler (Akron) are both exceeding 8.0 yards per attempt in MAC competition  which indicates both teams can create explosive plays through the air.

Neither secondary has shown the ability to limit those kinds of chunk gains.

2023 meeting produced 46 points in regulation, despite both teams being less efficient offensively at the time.

Over view of UMass games this year shows they are  combing to averaging 68.3 total points, suggesting they’re often in shootouts.

Akron home games trend to the Over — 7 of their last 8 have cleared the total.

Weather 62° with light wind — ideal scoring conditions, no weather-related downside.

 
Given the defensive metrics and offensive efficiency, a projected total closer to 58–60 points is reasonable. That gives around a +8–10 point cushion over the posted total. Ill take that as an edge.

Play on the over

The RedHawks have dominated this rivalry recently, winning four straight in the series (including 30–20 last year in Oxford) and covering in six of their last seven trips to Athens. Ohio has struggled to meet market expectations at home, going just 3–6 ATS in its last nine and failing to cover five of six times when favored by less than a touchdown.

Miami’s defense remains elite, ranking top-20 nationally in yards per play allowed (4.7), while Ohio’s offense has been inconsistent, sitting 83rd in success rate. The matchup points toward a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair....exactly the kind of game where the underdog has a real chance to win outright.

Play on Miami O