Matt Fargo

This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Round 1 Game of the Year. We won with the Lakers in a similar situation last night and while this series is all but done, pride is on the line tonight. Winning a game to extend your season and not take the sweep in front of your home crowd is a big motivational factor as we saw with the veterans last night in Los Angeles. While the offense is always there to go off, the defense has to be better here with KAT, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards having their way in Game Three with a combined 73 points on 53.2 percent shooting. The Suns are up against the wall in what has been one of the most disappointing seasons with one of the best rosters coming in and not even competing for one of the top spots in the Western Conference. What happened has been injuries throughout the season and not being able to build any sort of chemistry. What we do have is the biggest line adjustment so far in the postseason without injuries being taken into account as the Suns closed as 5.5-point favorites in Game Three and are now underdogs two nights later. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points going up against an opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 89-49 ATS (64.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (556) Phoenix Suns

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Indiana has a chance to put this series heavily in its favor after losing the opener and winning the last two games including an overtime win in Game Three. The Pacers are now in a spot going up against a Bucks team without their two top players and the line is reflecting that but their top line against even a depleted roster does not warrant them close to a double-digit favorite. Indiana remains home where it is 27-15 which includes a 20-11 record when favored but they are just 15-15-1 against the number. The season is basically on the line for the Bucks tonight and without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard puts them in a tough situation but this is where we take the value. Those two can take over a game late but the other seven top rotation players are all veterans who can pick this team up and keep it close which is what we all care about here. The Bucks can easily cash it is but these are professionals and there is a disrespect that will come into play. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home win by three points or less. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (553) Milwaukee Bucks