Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Sam Houston State -4½

Sam Houston has the ultimate rest advantage in this Conference USA quarterfinal.
The Bearkats earned the #2 seed and a first-round bye while New Mexico State had to play yesterday.

Legs get heavy in back-to-back tournament games and the Aggies do not have the depth to survive.
This is also a massive revenge spot for Sam Houston after losing the only regular season meeting.

The Bearkats are a top-40 scoring offense that averages 83 points per contest.
They are much more efficient than the Aggies, shooting nearly 47 percent from the field.

New Mexico State ranks near the bottom of the country in shooting efficiency at just 43 percent.
The defensive edge goes to the Bearkats as well.

Kashie Natt was just named CUSA Defensive Player of the Year.
He will spend the night locking down Jemel Jones and forcing turnovers in the backcourt.

Sam Houston is coached by Chris Mudge, who was named CUSA Co-Coach of the Year for this 21-win season.
He has this team playing elite basketball at the right time.

New Mexico State’s fatigue will show up in the second half when the jumpers stop falling.
Expect Sam Houston to dominate the glass and get easy points in transition.

The Bearkats have the superior guard play and will control the tempo from the opening tip.
This line is far too short for a rested high seed against a tired double-digit seed.

Lay the points with the better, fresher team.

Bet Sam Houston State -4.5 (-110).

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4* VEGAS INSIDER on Liberty -5½

Liberty has a clear advantage in efficiency that the oddsmakers are not fully respecting in this matchup.

The Flames rank among the best in the country at taking care of the basketball and maximizing every possession.

They rarely beat themselves with unforced errors and force opponents to play a disciplined game for all 40 minutes.

Missouri State struggles to create turnovers, which means Liberty will get exactly the looks they want in their half-court sets.

The Bears have had major issues defending the perimeter throughout the season.

They consistently allow high-quality looks from deep, and that is a recipe for disaster against a Liberty team that lives behind the arc.

The Flames are built to exploit teams that are slow to rotate or lose focus on the defensive end.

They move the ball better than almost anyone in the conference and they do not settle for contested shots.

On the other side of the ball, Liberty’s defensive system is a nightmare for a Missouri State offense that lacks elite playmakers.

The Bears rely too much on individual scoring and often go through long droughts when their outside shots aren't falling.

Liberty will force them to work for every single bucket and they excel at keeping opponents off the free-throw line.

The Flames are also one of the better rebounding teams in the league when it comes to fundamental box-outs.

They win the battle on the defensive glass and limit the second-chance opportunities that Missouri State needs to stay competitive.

The pressure of a tournament setting favors the more disciplined team with the higher floor.

Expect the Flames to pull away over the final ten minutes as their superior shooting and veteran composure take over the game.

I like the Liberty -5.5 (-110).

5* NO BRAINER on Clemson -5½

Wake Forest is walking into a buzzsaw tonight after surviving an overtime thriller against Virginia Tech just 24 hours ago. The Demon Deacons played high-intensity minutes while Clemson has been resting and preparing since Saturday.

The rest disparity is the single biggest handicap in this spot. Asking Wake Forest to carry that emotional and physical load on zero days of rest is a massive ask against a fresh opponent.

Clemson brings one of the stingiest defenses in the country to the floor. They rank 18th nationally in scoring defense and allow only 65.6 points per game.

Wake Forest relies heavily on Juke Harris to carry the scoring load. Harris is the best scorer in the ACC, but he won't have the lift in his legs to hit contested jumpers late in the second half.

The Tigers have a major revenge motive after losing to the Deacs back in mid-February. They got out-worked in that game and won't let a tired team repeat that performance on a neutral floor.

Clemson’s frontcourt features RJ Godfrey and Carter Welling, who provide a physical edge in the paint. They should dominate the glass against a Wake Forest interior that is already gassed.

The Demon Deacons have been a defensive liability all season, ranking 269th in the nation. They surrender over 77 points per game and do not have the depth to hide their fatigue on that end of the floor.

Clemson is a veteran group that protects the basketball and limits unforced turnovers. They will play a controlled, physical game that wears Wake Forest down by the ten-minute mark of the second half.

Expect the Tigers to pull away late as the fatigue factor becomes impossible for Wake to overcome. The depth and defensive discipline of Clemson will be the difference-maker in a double-digit win.

Bet Clemson -5.5 (-102).

5* NO BRAINER on TCU -5

TCU holds every major edge in this Big 12 second-round matchup because they have the rest and the bodies to dominate a depleted Oklahoma State interior.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a first-round bye while the Cowboys just finished a high-scoring battle against Colorado late last night.

Oklahoma State is currently playing without its top two centers, Parsa Fallah and Andrija Vukovic, which leaves them completely vulnerable in the paint.
That is a massive problem against a TCU frontcourt led by David Punch and Xavier Edmonds, who both average over 13 points and six rebounds per game.

TCU swept the regular season series this year by controlling the glass and winning the rebounding battle in both contests.
They rank near the top of the conference in offensive rebounding and will generate easy second-chance points against a fatigued Cowboys defense.

Jamie Dixon’s defensive system thrives on constant pressure, and that pressure is most effective when an opponent is playing their second game in 24 hours.
The Cowboys have been forced to shuffle 19 different starting lineups this season and simply lack the bench depth to keep up for 40 minutes.

Oklahoma State relies heavily on Anthony Roy and Christian Coleman to score, but they will find much tougher resistance at the rim today.
The Horned Frogs stay disciplined and avoid the cheap fouls that allowed the Cowboys to live at the free-throw line in their opening-round win.

Expect TCU to pull away late in the second half as Oklahoma State’s legs go heavy and their shooting percentages dip from the perimeter.
The Frogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and have the fresh legs to cover this mid-range number in Kansas City.

I like the TCU -5 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on West Virginia +5

West Virginia is catching way too many points at home in this spot. The Mountaineers are a completely different animal when playing in Morgantown.

BYU lives and dies by the three-point shot. That is a dangerous way to play on the road in a loud and hostile environment.

The Cougars rank near the top of the country in three-point attempts per game. If those shots aren't falling early, BYU tends to hit long scoring droughts that are hard to overcome.

West Virginia's defensive pressure is going to be the deciding factor tonight. They excel at forcing turnovers and turning them into easy points in transition.

BYU has shown a real vulnerability against teams that disrupt their offensive rhythm. They have struggled with ball security all season when facing high-pressure defenses.

This is a massive revenge spot for the Mountaineers after dropping the earlier meeting this season. West Virginia needs this win badly to solidify their spot in the postseason conversation.

The Mountaineers also hold a significant edge on the offensive glass. They are one of the best teams in the conference at generating second-chance opportunities.

Those extra possessions are huge when you are catching five points at home. West Virginia is 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 home games as an underdog.

BYU has been overvalued by the market lately. They are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games played on the road.

The travel and the atmosphere will take a physical toll on the Cougars. Expect a gritty game that stays tight until the final buzzer.

I like the West Virginia +5.

5* NO BRAINER on Indiana -4½

Indiana enters this Big Ten Tournament matchup with a significant rest advantage that should decide the game.
The Hoosiers earned a first-round bye, while Northwestern is forced to play for the second time in 24 hours after a physical battle against Penn State yesterday.

Fatigue is a major issue for a Northwestern rotation that already lacks quality depth.
The Wildcats rely heavily on their starters for scoring, and those legs will get heavy in the second half against a fresh Indiana defense.

The Hoosiers have a massive edge in the frontcourt and should dominate the rebounding battle.
Indiana ranks in the top tier of the conference in offensive rebound percentage, which will lead to easy second-chance points against a tired Northwestern interior.

Indiana also matches up perfectly with the Wildcats' perimeter-centric offense.
The Hoosiers have been elite at closing out on shooters lately, holding opponents to low efficiency from beyond the arc over their last five games.

Northwestern needs to hit a high volume of triples to stay in this game, but that is a tough task on short rest in a cavernous arena like the United Center.
If the Wildcats aren't hitting at a high clip early, they don't have the size or athleticism to manufacture points in the paint.

Coach Darian DeVries has the Hoosiers playing with high intensity on the defensive end right now.
Expect Indiana to push the tempo and use their deeper bench to wear down the Northwestern backcourt from the jump.

The Hoosiers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
They also have a massive crowd advantage in Chicago, as the Indiana faithful always turn this tournament into a home-game environment.

Northwestern will likely struggle to keep pace as the game goes on and the shooting percentages dip.
Indiana is the more athletic team and will live at the free-throw line in the closing minutes to cover this number comfortably.

I like the Indiana -4.5 (-110).

5* NO BRAINER on Iowa -11½

Iowa has a massive advantage in this Big Ten Tournament second-round matchup. The Hawkeyes are rested and waiting while Maryland had to grind out a win against Oregon just yesterday.

The rest factor is huge here. Maryland is playing their second game in less than 24 hours and they are dealing with a thin rotation.

The Terrapins have multiple key players on the injury report. Myles Rice and Pharrel Payne are both questionable for today, and their absence would leave Maryland with zero depth against a high-tempo opponent.

Iowa features one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They rank in the top 30 nationally in field goal percentage and move the ball better than almost anyone in the conference.

The Hawkeyes average over 75 points per game and rarely beat themselves with turnovers. Maryland’s defense ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten in efficiency and will struggle to close out on Iowa's shooters.

Bennett Stirtz is playing like an All-American for Iowa right now. He is averaging over 20 points per game and should feast against a tired Maryland backcourt that played heavy minutes yesterday.

Maryland’s offensive numbers are a major concern. They shoot just 40.6 percent from the floor as a team and lack the consistent three-point threat needed to keep up with Iowa’s scoring pace.

This is a classic "legs" game. Iowa will push the tempo early to test Maryland's conditioning and the lead will likely balloon in the second half as fatigue sets in.

The Hawkeyes have covered the spread in over 63 percent of their games as favorites this season. They have the fresh legs and the offensive firepower to put this away early.

I like the Iowa -11.5 (-110)

3* HEAVY HITTER on NC State -8½

NC State is in a prime position to handle business today in Charlotte. The Wolfpack are well-rested after their first-round bye while Pittsburgh is coming off a grueling one-point win over Stanford yesterday.

Pittsburgh is down to a skeleton crew with multiple season-ending injuries to their frontcourt depth. They are effectively playing a six or seven-man rotation right now which is a disaster in a back-to-back scenario.

That lack of depth will be exposed by an NC State team that plays at the 29th fastest pace in the country. The Wolfpack average over 83 points per game and love to punish opponents in transition.

Expect Pitt’s legs to give out midway through the second half. The Panthers struggled to keep up even in the regular season, losing by nine to State back in January while allowed 81 points.

NC State gets a huge boost with Tre Holloman and Musa Sagnia both being cleared to play for this tournament run. Having a full roster allows the Wolfpack to keep the pressure on for all 40 minutes.

Quadir Copeland was a nightmare for Pitt in the first meeting and should dominate the backcourt again today. Darrion Williams provides a mismatch on the wing that Pitt's tired defenders simply cannot shadow.

Pitt does not have the bodies to defend the paint without fouling. NC State is efficient at the free-throw line and will capitalize on the extra possessions provided by Pitt’s fatigue.

The Wolfpack have a massive advantage in eFG% over their last five games. Charlotte is essentially a home game for NC State and the crowd will be heavily in their favor.

Pitt is 4-10 straight up in their last 14 games and they are overmatched in this physical spot. NC State has the talent and the fresh legs to pull away and cover this number easily.

I like the NC State -8.5 (-110)

5* NO BRAINER on Rockets +5½

The Rockets are catching too many points against a Denver team that cannot find its footing on defense.
Houston leads the NBA in rebounding, grabbing over 48 boards per contest.
That physical edge is a nightmare for a Denver squad allowing 116.6 points per game.

The Nuggets are currently limping through a crowded injury report.
Star guard Jamal Murray is a game-time decision with a left ankle sprain he suffered last week.
Peyton Watson is out with a hamstring issue, and Cameron Johnson is dealing with a bad back.

Even if Murray is active, he will not be at full speed against Houston’s aggressive perimeter defenders.
The Rockets are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but their depth negates the fatigue factor.
Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant are both playing at an All-NBA level right now.

Sengun’s ability to battle Nikola Jokic in the paint takes away Denver's usual interior advantage.
The Nuggets just dropped a high-stress game to Oklahoma City on Monday and look tired.
Their bench has been getting outworked, while Houston’s second unit is one of the most productive in the league.

Houston owns the 4th-best scoring defense in the NBA, allowing under 110 points per outing.
Denver usually relies on the home altitude to gash teams, but the Rockets have the legs to keep up.
Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson provide a massive spark off the pine that Denver simply cannot match.

The Nuggets are 39-25, which is almost identical to the Rockets’ record in the standings.
There is no reason the line should be this wide given Denver’s health issues and defensive lapses.
Houston is a physical, high-energy group that has consistently covered the spread on the road this month.

Expect a back-and-forth battle that comes down to the final possession in the fourth quarter.
The Rockets will win the battle on the glass and get enough extra possessions to keep this within the number.

Bet Rockets +5.5 (-112).