Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

Stephen Nover's NFL Sunday Night Big Ticket

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I went 67-39 (63 percent) in college football in 2022 as verified by Vegas Insider by combining many handicapping factors such as matchup analysis, statistics, history, weather and situational elements. Information is the key. I'm fortunate that I have many sources to rely on. Many stem from having been a sportswriter/sports editor for daily newspapers in the Midwest, South and West for more than 20 years and having been the sports gaming writer for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years while also having covered the UNLV football team as the team beat writer for several years. I have the knowledge, experience and resources necessary to win.

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Stephen Nover is one of the most respected NFL handicappers in North American with the record to back it up: 26 of 30 winning NFL seasons! All of Stephen's plays come with his trademark deep dive analysis. Stephen is a multiple Rotisserie league football champion and was an award-winning sportswriter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years. He also worked for the legendary linesmaker Roxy Roxbury, who was the top oddsmaker in North America before retiring. Don't miss out. Lock in now and get all of Stephen's plays at a top value season price.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 06, 2025
Indiana vs Ohio State
Ohio State
-3½ -112 at Draft Kings
Lost
$112.0
Play Type: Top Premium
Ohio State isn't just 12-0. The Buckeyes also are 10-1-1 ATS. That is the top point spread mark in the country.

Indiana has a better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza and a better all around team than it did when it went to the college football playoffs a year ago.

But so does Ohio State. Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin led the nation in completion percentage (78.9), while throwing for 3,065 yards and 30 touchdowns with only six interceptions. Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate provide Sayin with the best wide receiver tandem in the country.  What really makes this a play for me though is Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes have had many great defenses through the years. This just may be their best. Ohio State ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, fewest yards allowed and pass defense.

Iowa held Indiana to 20 points. The Hawkeyes have an excellent defense. Ohio State's defense is better, though.

Enough money has come on Indiana to drive the number down. It has made Ohio State a bargain.
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 06, 2025
BYU vs Texas Tech
UNDER 49½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Defense ruled the day when the two teams met on Nov. 8. Texas Tech defeated BYU, 29-7. That total went Under by 14 1/2 points. BYU could manage just 255 yards of offense. Texas Tech had 368 yards of offense.

These defenses are not given enough credit. Texas Tech ranks third defensively giving up 12.3 points a game. The Red Raiders have the best run defense in the country. BYU ranks 15th defensively holding foes to 19.4 points a game.

BYU runs the ball nearly 57% of the time. It's going to be tough for the Cougars to deal again with the Red Raiders' run defense.

Texas Tech may be able to move the ball better than BYU, but touchdowns figured to come difficult for the Red Raiders as BYU's defense is eighth in red zone TD percentage allowed. 
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 07, 2025
Saints vs Bucs
OVER 41½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Slowly but surely the Buccaneers are getting back to full strength on offense. Mike Evans won't be ready this week, but Tampa Bay's top running back Bucky Irving returned last week and looked good. Chris Godwin is getting closer to being his reliable self having returned several weeks ago.

All of this is added firepower for Baker Mayfield, who entered this week tied for seventh in touchdown passes with 19 and ranked 11th in passer ratings.

This is the lowest total on a Tampa Bay game this season. It is set too low because the Saints should be able to contribute their share of the scoring.

Rookie Tyler Shough is averaging 45 passes in the last two games. This will be his fifth NFL start. He has shown improvement. Tampa Bay gives up the sixth-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards.

Devaughn Vele had a breakout game against the Dolphins last week catching eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. Shough also has reliable targets in Chris Olave and underrated tight end Juwan Johnson.

The bar is set low with this total. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 07, 2025
Seahawks vs Falcons
Falcons
+7 -115 at PlayMGM
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

Before crowning the Seahawks Super Bowl champions after a shutout of a Max Brosmer-led Minnesota team last week, consider this about Atlanta.

The Falcons are an unlucky 4-8. They have lost by an average of 3.2 points in five of their defeats. Two of their losses - to the Panthers and Colts - came in overtime. Atlanta's latest defeat was last Sunday on the road by three points when the Jets' Nick Folk made a 56-yard field goal as time expired.

If even two of those five defeats were turned around, the Falcons would be a far more respectable 6-6.

Seattle enters this match-up fat and happy and perhaps overconfident. It is not an ideal spot for Seattle. The Seahawks are making the long journey across three time zones and this is an early start. They also are not a dome team.

The Falcons can afford to play loose now. All the pressure is on the Seahawks.

Kirk Cousins is well past his prime. But he still is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and has the luxury of having superstar Bijan Robinson to do the heavy lifting.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 07, 2025
Bears vs Packers
OVER 43½ -110
Play Type: Top Premium

A December game in Green Bay always means a first look at the weather. It is going to be cold, but sunny. So no problems there. 

The good news for the Packers is Jayden Reed is set to play for the first time since Week 2. This gives Jordan Love a rich assortment of wide receivers with Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and potentially Matthew Golden.

Chicago's secondary has gotten healthy. However, the Bears are still not at full strength at linebacker.

The bad news for Green Bay is that stud defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt is out for the season after suffering a broken ankle on Thanksgiving. Next to Micah Parsons, Wyatt was the most valuable player on the Packers defense because of his run-stuffing ability.

Ben Johnson has done a masterful job turning the Bears' offense into a power attack. Chicago's offensive linemen are better run blockers than pass blockers and D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are an effective outside/inside running back combo. They can put the Bears in favorable second and third down situations making things easier for Caleb Williams to pick his spots. 

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.