John Ryan

24 North Texas vs 20 Tulane 
8 EST, Friday 
7-Unit bet on Tulane priced as a 2.5-point underdog. 

The following CFB betting algorithm has gone 54-39 SU (58%) and 56-35-2 ATS for (62%) winning bets since 2021.  

Bet on teams priced between the 3’s.  

The foe has covered the spread in each of their last four games.  

If our team is playing at home, they have compiled a 35-22 SU (61%) record and a 35-20-2 ATS for 64% winning bets since 2019. Drilling deeper into the data and pulling all games from week 8 on out improves these home teams to a stellar 29-15 SU (66%) and 30-14 ATS record for 68% winning bets. 
 

Troy vs 25 James Madison 
7 EST, Friday, December 5 
7-Unit bet on James Madison priced as a 23.5-point favorite. 

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 5 units preflop and looking to get JMU priced at a 20.5-point favorite during the first half of action. For JMU to be favored by less than 20 points would require Troy to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half. As good as a team JMU is this season, it is unlikely they give up the lead.  

The following NCAAF betting algorithm has earned a 128-23 SU (84%) and 97-52-2 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 45 seasons going back to 1980. The requirements are:  

Bet on home teams coming off a double-digit road win.  

The opponent is coming off an upset win against a conference foe and were 6 or more-point underdogs.  

Capitals vs Ducks 
10 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Ducks priced as a 120-underdog. 

Betting on teams in the first half of the season that allowed 6 or more goals in their previous game and facing a foe that is coming off a win by four or more goals has earned a 51-36 record for 59% winners averaging a +115-dog bet and earning a 23% ROI since 2015.  

Heat vs Magic 
7 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Magic priced as 5.5-point favorites. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 73-23 SU and 62-32-2 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on favorites priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points. They are on a two or more-game ATS losing streak. They have won 50 to 60% of their games. The opponent has a winning record. 

Lakers vs Celtics 
7 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Lakers priced as6.5-point underdogs. 

Last night, Lebron’s consecutive game streak of scoring in double-digits ended with him making a pass to a teammate, who made the winning shot. That kind of selfless play can have a tremendous positive impact on the team and the team’s locker-room chemistry. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 20-65 SU record and a 51-32-2 ATS record good for 62% winning bets since 2021. The requirements are:  

Bet on dogs.  

The opening line priced our dog as the underdog, and the line has since moved 4 or more points in our favor.  

The game number occurs from the 12th to the 41st game of the 82-game regular season. 

If the opponent is coming off a win, our teams have improved to a highly profitable 16-6-1 ATS good for 73% winning bets. 

11 Gonzaga vs 15 Kentucky 
7 EST, Friday | ESPN2 
7-Unit bet on Gonzaga priced as a 5.5-point favorite. 

The following NCAA Basketball bettig system has compiled a 55-42 (57%) and 61-33 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 2016 or the past 10 seasons. The required criteria are: 

Bet on a team playing with 7 or more days of rest. 

That team is coming off a 15 or greater point loss 

That was favored in that previousgame loss. 

If our team is playing on the road, they have compiled a highly profitable 21-24 SU and 31-13 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is favored by any number of points, has compiled a 42-12 SU and 38-16 ATS record good for 70.4% winning bets.  

BYU vs Texas Tech 
Noon EST 
Big 12 Conference Championship 
7-Unit bet on Texas Tech priced as a 13.5-point favorite. 

Texas Tech has done very well over the years when installed as a favorite. When they have been priced as the favorite and won the game, they have gone 29-0 SU and 24-5 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2021. When installed as a double-digit favorite, theyhave gone a perfect 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS good for 88% winning bets since 2021. 

2 Indiana vs 1 Ohio State 
8 EST, Saturday 
10-Unit bet on Indiana priced as a 4.5-point underdog. 

OSU has gone 12-0 and 10-2 ATS on the season and is very deserving of the #1 ranking for what feels like the entire season. However, these trends end sharply, and OSU is in a vulnerable situation and matchup against an Indiana team that no one predicted would be in the Big Ten Championship game. In the conference championship games, teams that have covered 9 or more of their last 12 games, favored between 3.5 and 9.5 points, and facing a foe that has lost to the spread in two of their last three games have gone 9-11 SU and 7-13 ATS for just 35% winning bets. 

Defending national champions that are playing in the conference championship game this season and facing a foe with no more than 1 loss has seen them go 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS! 

South Dakota State vs Montana 
2 EST, Saturday, December 6 
7-Unit bet on Montana using the money line if the spread is not more than 2.5 points.  

This is the second round of the FCS Championship Round 2 action. 

If the price is favored by 3 or more than lay the wood. If anything, my belief is that tis line is more poised to get to pick-em than greater than a 2.5-point favorite. So, waiting may be the prudent decision currently. 

The following betting algorithm has compiled a 24-5 SU (83%) and 18-9-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The required criteria are:  

Bet on home favorites.  

The game occurs from week 11 on out.  

The home team is averaging at least 17 PPG in the first half.  

They are coming off a close loss by three or fewer points. 

In playoff or conference championship games or games in the FCS playoff rounds, teams that have an offense that scores 10 or more PPG than the opponent have gone 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS for 65% winners; 3-1 SUATS if they are the dog and 9-0 SU if they are the home team (This applies to the FCS playoff series).  

Game Info 

Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 6, Noon ET 

Venue: Washington-Grizzly Stadium (Missoula) 

Stakes: Winner advances to FCS Quarterfinals; Montana seeks redemption after SDSU eliminated them in 2023 and 2024 playoffs. 

Montana Advantages 

Home-Field Edge: 

Montana is dominant at Washington-Grizzly Stadium, one of FCS’s toughest venues. 

Rest & Prep: 

Montana had a first-round bye; SDSU travels after a shaky finish (1-4 before last week). 

Offensive Firepower 

QB Keali‘i Ah Yat:3,154 yards, 25 TDs, dual-threat ability. 

RB Eli Gillman:1,261 yards, 17 TDs; Big Sky Offensive MVP. 

WR Michael Wortham: 1,147 total yards, 14 TDs; explosive playmaker. 

Montana ranks Top 5 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 PPG). 

Defensive Edge 

Aggressive pass rush and strong secondary. 

SDSU offense averages 28.5 PPG (6th in MVFC) vs Montana’s 40.7 PPG. 

Montana excels in third-down stops and turnover margins. 

Advanced Analytics 

Projected Score: Montana 28– SDSU 24 

Win Probability: Montana 59% 

My predictive models favor Montana by ~3 points. 

Key Points Narrative 

Montana leads the all-time series 8-2. 

SDSU won the last two playoff meetings, making this a statement game for Montana. 

Elite offensive trio (Ah Yat, Gillman, Wortham) vs SDSU’s inconsistent defense. 

Homefield advantages and extra rest. 

Momentum: Montana enters 4-1 in last five games. 

Duke vs Michigan State  
NOON EST, Saturday 
7-Unit bet on MSU priced as a 1.5-point favorite. If your price is –2.5 or fewer points, use the money line. If it moves to MSU being an underdog, take the points.  

This has all the making of a highly contested game by both ranked teams, and my predictive models clearly point to MSU covering the 3-point spread and winning the game. Home teams priced between the 3’sand taking on an undefeated foe with at least 6 wins on the season have gone 28-18SU (61%) and 29-17ATS good for 63% winning bets since 2017.  

Duke is 9-0 on the season and tweaking the query to be betting against teams on a 9 or more-game win streak and undefeated has been an outstanding 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS good for 77% winning bets since 2017.