Fargo’s Central Michigan v Illinois-Chicago Picks
November 18, 2009
There aren’t many handicappers that are as decorated as Matt Fargo. Every hoops season we have plenty of long-term subscribers looking for his college basketball picks, not only because he wins at such a high rate but because he goes into such great detail with his reports saying just why he likes the sides that he does. If you have been having trouble breaking down the college basketball spreads, there may be a thing or two that you could learn from this expert. Let’s take a look at just why he liked the Central Michigan v. Illinois-Chicago game the other night:
Central Michigan had a pretty decent season last year considering all it went through. It lost two key starters early in the season but the Chippewas were able to mold together pretty well and actually captured a share of the MAC West division despite a 7-9 conference record. This season, the goal is to win that outright and they have the players to do so. They return three starters including a solid backcourt and the return of Chris Kellermann and Marko Spica, the two players who were lost, makes this a very experienced team as they have four seniors and five juniors on the roster. Also in the mix are three junior college transfers and two promising freshmen to add a lot of depth. Central Michigan did not get out of the gate well as it lost to Princeton in its opener but bounced back to rout Ferris St. to regain some of that confidence. Illinois-Chicago meanwhile is just the opposite of the Chippewas heading into this season. The Flames lost five letterwinners from last season, including guard Josh Mayo and center Scott VanderMeer to graduation. Mayo, a two-time All-Horizon League First Team pick, is the Flames’ fourth all-time leading scorer with 1,718 points, while VanderMeer, a three-time League All-Defensive Team selection, is the Horizon League’s all-time shot-blocker leader. Those are two huge holes to fill but also gone are starting frontcourt players Tori Boyd and Rob Eppinger and frontcourt reserve Jovan Ignjatovic, all of whom left for personal reasons. Replacing four of the top six scorers will be a challenge and one of the expected contributors this season, Spencer Stewart, is suspended indefinitely due to a violation of team rules. The Flames won their opener but it came against Illinois-Springfield, a Division II team, and it was far from impressive. Central Michigan falls into a fantastic angle which is largely based on the results from last season and this early in the year, the line takes that into consideration. Play on teams that won between 20 and 40 percent of their games from last season where the line is +3 to -3 and are coming off a home win, playing a team that had a winning record last year. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1997. The short number here shows great value and the home team Chippewas break their three-game losing skid in the series against the Flames. 9* Central Michigan Chippewas
