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• Ken Pomeroy – Advanced statistical data on each team in college basketball.  Here you can find the offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, strength of schedules and more of each team.
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How to Handicap College Basketball

There is no easy way to handicap a basketball game.  There are a lot of different variables that go into each contest and you are going to want to break the game down from a variety of angles before placing your hard earned money on one of the teams.  Let’s take a look at some different methods that you should use if you want to achieve the highest winning percentage possible.

Public Perception

The sportsbooks want balanced action on the games.  They want to make their money off the juice, which is the additional amount bettors have to risk on their bet.  If the books take heavy action on one side of a game and that side wins, they stand to lose money.  Once you realize that the sportsbooks want balanced action, and they aren’t trying to set the line perfectly in terms of average score you are going to be on your way to learning how to beat the line.

There are certain teams that are public favorites and certain teams the public wants to avoid.  Every year the average Joe knows that Kansas, North Carolina, and Duke are going to be good and they will blindly take these teams against inferior opponents or conference door mats.  Not everyone is willing to take a Penn State or Colorado.  What you want to do is find value where teams are better than they are perceived or they are not as good as perceived.

Home/Away

The home court advantage in college basketball is between 4-6 points depending on the venue.  This means that the spread a team could be -6 against an opponent on their home floor but then be +6 if they play them later in the year on the other school’s court.  You absolutely have to factor home court advantage in when you are handicapping games.  To go along with the public perception a little bit, popular teams who take to the road normally do not give up enough points to the other team’s home court advantage.

Injuries

You need to know who is playing and who is sitting out.  There is nothing worse than backing a team and then finding out their star player is playing limited minutes due to an injury you didn’t know about.  Deep teams can withstand injuries better than teams that use 6-7 guys in a heavy rotation.  If there is an injury to a player on a deep team, the odds can over react and you can bet on that team knowing they won’t be hurt as bad as everyone thinks.

Important Stats

When looking at two teams how can you tell who is going to matchup well against their opponent?  The stats that I like to look at are: effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, rebounding, and free throws per field goal attempt.  You need to look at how both teams have fared both offensively and defensively.

Effective field goal rate adjust for three-point shots, basically if someone goes 2-4 from three point range that is the same as going 3-4 from 2-point, they are both worth six points.  You then want teams that are going to protect the ball so you know you will get more attempts out of them, plus teams that are going to rebound to give themselves extra opportunities while limiting their opponents.  Free throws are important because they are easier to make, but also because it puts the other team in foul trouble.

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Handicappers to choose from:

• Jimmy Boyd
• Jack Jones
• Jeff Alexander
• Dave Price
• Info Plays
• Black Widow
• John Martin
• Steve Janus

Below is a look at the five biggest impact players who have recently joined their teams over the past month.

MARCUS WILLIAMS – Connecticut (Guard)

Williams led the Huskies in assists last season (7.3 apg), but was suspended the entire first semester for his involvement in a stolen laptop computer ring. Williams returned to action on January 3rd and the Huskies lost outright at Marquette, 94-79, as a 10-point road favorite.

Connecticut has since gone 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) with Williams in the lineup and he leads the team in assists (7.8 apg), is second in steals (1.8 spg), and is third in scoring (11.2 ppg).

GARY NEAL – Towson State (Guard)

Neal is a 6-4 guard that transferred from LaSalle and he made a huge debut on December 21st when Neal scored 28 points in a narrow 80-78 home loss versus VMI. Overall, Neal is averaging 25.8 points per game and has scored at least 25 points or more in five of his past six games.

It appears that other Colonial Athletic Association teams are beginning to double-team Neal and he struggled in his last game versus N.C. Wilmington as Seal was just 1-12 FG and 0-8 from three-point range.

Despite the blowout loss last Thursday, Towson is still a solid 5-2 SU/ATS over their past seven games.

MOHAMED ABUKAR – San Diego State (Center)

Abukar is originally from San Diego and transferred back home from the University of Florida last spring. He became eligible on December 27th and the Aztecs lost a difficult cross-country road trip at Providence, 80-65. San Diego State has since gone 5-1 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS.

Abukar is a 6-10 center and his talent was immediately evident as he scored 42 points in his first three games and is currently third on the team in scoring (11.4 ppg) and fourth in rebounding (4.1 rpg).

HASSAN FOFANA – Loyola-Maryland (Center)

Foyana is a native of Africa and appeared in 28 games as a freshman for the Maryland Terps before transferring to Loyola last year. Foyana became eligible on December 23rd and the Greyhounds were blown out at Virginia, 98-59.

Foyana made an immediate impact and scored 33 points in his first two games and Loyola was on a perfect 6-0 ATS run until they lost at Iona last Thursday. Overall, Foyana leads the team in rebounding (7.2 rpg) and blocks (1.2 bpg) and he is third on the team in scoring (10.3 ppg).

IJE NWANKWO – Cleveland State (Forward)

This 6-7, 275 lbs power forward transferred from Purdue and had to sit out this first semester this season. Nwankwo became eligible on December 20th and played scored only four points in 13:00 minutes of action. Nwankwo has since broken out with 14+ points in four of his past seven games and overall he leads the team in blocks (0.9 bpg) and ranks third in scoring (10.0 ppg) and fourth in rebounding (4.4 rpg).

Cleveland State has gone 3-1 SU/ATS their past four games with Nwankwo in the lineup, with all three wins coming outright as +3 ½, +8, and +9 point underdogs.

Southern Illinois- Guess who has the longest home winning streak in the USA in conference action? The Saluki’s of Southern Illinois at 34 games, and we cashed them in against Creighton this week and they followed that win up the next night against Drake. The Saluki’s stand 15-4 overall, and this was suppose to be a rebuilding year. Check out those home totals when they play there, because this team in getting it done with defense allowing just 52 ppg there, and they allow under 59 ppg on the season. The Saluki’s are 16-2 ATS with the UNDER in their last 18 games, simply amazing! Key in on these guys with totals, Vegas college basketball lines makers have been very slow to adjust to this unreal totals trend.

Northern Iowa- Still leaders in the Mo Valley, at 18-3 overall. They are scoring points in bunches and have cashed their last 4 games on the Over. Scoring 72 ppg at home and allowing 57 will get you a winning record in any conference. In the past 9 days big wins over Creighton and Southern Illinois, along with Evansville and Drake have the Panthers on a roll. This team also beat Big 12 sister Iowa State in Ames this year and scored over 70 points on Southern Illinois’s vaunted defense. A game at in-state rival Drake on Saturday and then a HUGE road trip to Omaha Nebraska to take on Creighton on the 31st, where the Bluejays at the time of this article are 10-0 SU at home, that will be the game of the week in the Mo Valley next week.

Wichita State- A surprising team this year as the Shockers replaced 4 starters from last years team. They are 6-1 on the road SU and their only loss was to Illinois out of the Big 10 this year by 1 point! They have a huge game at Creighton this weekend, which will determine just how good they are, because Creighton has not lost a game at the Quest center this year and have beaten the likes of big brother Nebraska by 30 and Xavier too. The Shockers play great defense and have a team concept, and usually have 4 players in double digits and really spread it around very well, and are very well coached. Standing at 17-4 overall, and ranked 35th in the USA in defensive points allowed, this is a sleeper team this season in the Mo Valley, and getting big points on the road may be worth a look.

There are few teams this season to keep your eye on, and Bradley at home is one of them. The Braves are 8-1 at home and scoring 79 ppg there. Southwest Missouri State is one of the top offensive teams in the Mo Valley, but play little defense, and anytime I see a total under 140 with them, it has been a winner. Creighton is playing great ball at home, and struggling on the road. We’ll see how good they are after Tuesday since they play Wichita State and Missouri Valley leader Northern Iowa in back to back homers, but I can assure you, that head coach Dana Altman for Creighton will be on the trading block after this season, as many major schools will be after him, because he knows how to coach better than any other in this conference and knows how to win big games. I will attend both Creighton home games over the next week and the next 2 as mentioned will be barn burners!

Those are my weekly takes, be sure to follow up with me daily on my websites as I look to unload on the books again over the weekend with some Missouri Valley picks.

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We are in phase two right now, conference play. Conference play is unique in that schools are not traveling as much. A year ago, North Carolina opened the season at Santa Clara, meaning a team from the southeast was traveling all the way across the country. After which the Tar Heels took on teams from the Big 10, Mountain West, the SEC and the Pac 10. That is a lot of travel time as well as facing teams they had never seen before. This makes college basketball matchups often difficult and upsets more likely (North Carolina lost 77-66 at Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite).

Conference play means playing teams in your region, which cuts down significantly on travel time. It also means players are facing other players they’ve seen last year, probably several times, and playing in facilities they have seen before. Home/road play is certainly a key element for handicappers to pay attention to, but with shorter distances and familiar places to go to, it can be less a factor with certain teams because they’ve been to the opposition’s gym before.

Take a look at Buffalo. Buffalo just came off an impressive win over Eastern Michigan, followed by a close 84-82 loss in overtime at a very good Northern Illinois squad. Buffalo got the cover in both games. The Bulls were experienced and not caught off guard by these teams, because Buffalo had beaten both a year ago. In fact, last season Buffalo beat Northern Illinois twice, 86-80 at home and again in the MAC tournament, 73-66. That’s three games against each other in less than a year. Familiarity may breed contempt in some social circles, but it helps in preparation in college basketball.

As conference play continues this month, it’s important to look back at how these teams did in recent years, especially with teams loaded with seniors. Buffalo is an uptempo team so perhaps they can have an edge over a team that lacks depth and plays a slower style. Fortunately, there is a point of reference to go to: The last few meetings! But don’t stop there: Check the college basketball scoreboard of those games. Did Buffalo play a close first half against a team lacking depth, then blow them out in the second half? If so, that could mean a potential wager on the second half.

Another example could be a team with a significant rebounding advantage in the frontcourt taking on a team with a small frontcourt. Again, go back and look at recent games. Did they own the glass the last meeting? How about the last three meetings? Conference play offers many opportunities to do this, especially with teams facing each other two and even three times a year ago.

Specialization is the key to success- I took at a look at my 3-1 ATS performance Saturday, and thought I would point it out in terms of how one can achieve a 75% win rate ATS with so many games. I narrow it down to 3 conferences I specialize in, and one situation I specialize in, small conference totals plays now 5-1 ATS on the year. Lets look at my lone loss, which was Texas Tech against Oklahoma getting +10.5 and they lost by 12. Close but no cigar on that one, I needed a lay-up to cover, but found that Texas Tech is one of the worst road teams in college hoops and in the Big 12, it is official. Being in the radio business both from a gaming show perspective and a straight up sports talk show perspective in Lincoln, NE, so I work with game announcers and even a national play by play announcer for ESPN Gameplan that covers the Big 12 and Mountain West on a weekly basis. This gives me some serious insight and information that cannot be found on the wire services, a huge advantage for me!

Small conferences and mid-majors, like the Missouri Valley for instance, is also a MAJOR key to my success. Look at this past Saturday, 3 unbeatens, all favorites, including Duke, all were favored on the road. These games get the lions share of public interest and public wagering, and have no doubts, Vegas NCAA basketball odds makers know it. I won with small conference plays, where the lines moved very little if at all. It is not exciting stuff, but profitable. St. Mary’s CA laying 1 point on the road in a 22 point win, San Diego State laying 7 and winning by 27 and the Over in the NC Wilmington and George Mason game, winning the over by 13 points over the spread. The line moves, side and total in those games combined was less than 3 points TOTAL! Not exciting stuff, not exciting games on TV, but with a 3-0 sweep in those games, exciting when you go to the ticket window! The lines are soft and not as sharp and are less likely to have huge swings in them before tip-off than a game involving Duke, U Conn, North Carolina and teams that attract huge numbers of wagers and public attention.

I like to fly under the radar screen and narrow it down to a finite number of teams to handicap, say looking at 25-30 games max, and I’ll let the public and other cappers worry about attracting attention on marquee games. If you work a few conferences, like the Colonial or Horizon or Sun Belt as a weekly chore, you become very accustomed to home/road dichotomies in those conference’s, and win/loss scenarios and past history, of who plays who tough, no matter the situation. Knowing that St. Mary’s of California always is a tough team to beat at home, and remember in that conference, Gonzaga travels there. Just little things that are common knowledge to those who take the time to specialize in it! Look at San Diego State, off to their best conference record ever, and playing a team who has lost all road games by double digits, and yet they lay 7 and win by 27! The Aztecs lead the conference standings and have an outstanding forward that dominates in this conference, keep an eye on them.

Narrow it down, keep it simple and look at a few conference’s like the ones I mentioned, maybe the MAC conference, or a small mid-major and start doing your homework, it will pay dividends this Hoops season.

Getting started with college basketball wagering is easier than you think. You simply need to click on the banner of one of the sportsbooks on this site, open an account, fund your account and start wagering. The easiest way to fund your account is with an online merchant such as neteller, but you can also use instant check, Western Union, and maybe even your credit card. When you have finished up with a season of wagering and wish to make a payout, you can request a check, instant check, Western Union, bank wire, neteller payment, or a refund to your credit card. Trust us when we say it is a whole lot more painless than dealing with a local. 

There are many different niches for a sportsbook to go after and we have tried to find excellent choices for each one. The main things that we look for are overnight lines, reduced juice, customer service, easy deposit and withdrawal methods, and high limits. When looking for a book it is important to keep these factors in mind and also figure out which one of these factors is more important to you.

The first sportsbook that we are going to recommend is Bodog. These guys are very reliable and one of the biggest names in the business. They have been around for as long as almost anyone else and have become the industry leader. You will have to check out the news, blogs, and previews they have on their site because Bodog’s content is un-matched by any other sportsbook. The bonuses automatically get deposited into your account as soon as you make your deposit and the payouts via instant check are the best way to do things online. Without a doubt if you are looking to get started, the team at Bodog makes things as easy as anyone else in the offshore industry.

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The next sportsbook we think you should take a hard look at is Pinnacle. This book is geared more towards the professional gambler and not as much for the recreational type. Pinnacle has reduced juice which is key if you plan on making a lot of bets, they have high limits if you plan on trying to make a lot of money with your sports investing, but they don’t provide very high bonuses. The customer service is entirely internet based, so if you require phone service then this isn’t the book for you. We personally place a lot of our action at Pinnacle and recommend all serious sports investors do the same.

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The final sportsbook that we go with each college basketball season is Nine. The management group at Nine has been around the industry for years and they are known as some of the best in the business. With great bonuses, great promotions, and a customer service staff that is the most knowledgeable in the offshore industry, you can’t really go wrong if you are a recreational bettor looking for a solid place to play. With the Nine games, casino, and poker room there are plenty of options for you to have an entertaining experience at this sports book.

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Remember this year that if you choose any of these college basketball sportsbooks you are going to be better off. Start cashing in on our expertise by using the wagering locations that are going to leave you off in the best spot.